Stacked Payton Jordan 5k

Meade wrote:

Agreed. I think these could all go sub 13:00 (I am not saying I think all of these WILL, just that this is the list of potential sub 13s):

In order of likelihood, IMO:

Lopez Lomong

Evan Jager

Ben True

Ryan Hill

Andrew Bumbalough

Chris Derrick

More of an outside shot:

Garret Heath

Hassan Meade

Diego Estrada

German Fernandez

Top 4 on your list have all shonw indications of really good 3K and 5K potential, not sure how to even put them in order but my guess might be more like this:

Ryan Hill

Ben True

Lopez Lomong

Evan Jager

Chris Derrick

Andrew Bumbalough

(Also I'd put Centro on this list if he is planning to race 5K, thought probably at the bottom for now).

Reason I put Lomong down is I feel like he's been established for a while, but the younger guns are coming up fast.

Obviously Rupp goes to the top of the list after Lagat. It's a bit crazy to think that guys who could very well run under 13:10 are just honorable mentions now instead of our top 2 or 3.

new englander wrote:

NOP Skeptic wrote:

So no Farah is not, wasn't, and never was in 26:30, 12:40 shape

Tell that to this guy ~

Renato Canova wrote:

Don't think the real value of Mo is 12'53". He ran already 12'57" in 2010, when we worked together for some month in Iten, in Zurich, and now is very much stronger, after going to Salazar. To think can run near 12'40" is something reasonable, such as the possibility of running under 26'30" in 10000m.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&thread=5302291&id=5302709#5302709

Never going to happen, for the same reason that Rupp did NOT go after Hicham's record at BU.

The authorities know that they (Salazar) are doped to the gills--that's why USADA is testing them so much. And as long as they just win some races or ARs, the international authorities will roll their eyes and do nothing (though Travis Tygart is looking for some kind of excuse, obviously), becuase a positive test would do more damage (see: Diack going after WADA when WADA was threatening to kick Jamaica out). But Bekele, Geb, and El Guerrouj are icons of track and field, and if NOP goes after THEIR records, not even Nike's bribery will save them.

"Salazar's secret workouts?" We know far more about Salazar's workouts than we do about Schumacher's or True's.

Castile in the 10k should have plenty of company to go for another master's record.

new englander wrote:

Renato Canova wrote:

Don't think the real value of Mo is 12'53". He ran already 12'57" in 2010, when we worked together for some month in Iten, in Zurich, and now is very much stronger, after going to Salazar. To think can run near 12'40" is something reasonable, such as the possibility of running under 26'30" in 10000m.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&thread=5302291&id=5302709#5302709

Ventolin, he says "to think", "something reasonable", and "possible". None of things things mean he is certain of it. Furthermore, he is not the coach of Farah and does not actually know what shape Farah is in. He is just guessing.

Agreed. He's more like a medium who guesses by using the words that you quoted. Sorry, but nobody knows. Coachd, whoever he is, is just guessing as well.

Ventolin, he says "to think", "something reasonable", and "possible". None of things things mean he is certain of it. Furthermore, he is not the coach of Farah and does not actually know what shape Farah is in. He is just guessing.[/quote]

The Angel of Death wrote:

rupps missing wrote:

Why does Rupp never run at Stanford?

Because this happened when he did

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nE1ljKGKPJo

But Europe lets this happen

I generally agree with you but Jäger has run 13:02 already and True only lost on e to Hill in that absurdly tactical USA race

Garrett Heath ran 7:37 in the 3k indoors, he's more of a miler but he should be mixing it up front.

I'm voting for Ben True. Hopefully 13:zero

Event 53 Women 3000 Meter Steeplechase

55 Anna Willard Nike

I generally I wrote:

I generally agree with you but Jäger has run 13:02 already and True only lost on e to Hill in that absurdly tactical USA race

Yep, look at this:

1) Derrick: This guy (like True) is an aerobic monster! Why is he going to be in the top and beat the likes of this great field? Because True is not going to let this race get tactical and him and True have the most stamina... He ran a 3:39 last year at Oxy, not world class, but it beats True's 3:4x, and enough to get the job done... PR? 13:08 last year at DL Brussels... why is he in better shape? He looked really good in USA XC Champs and I feel he's the most sharp for this race. I've heard some in Jerry's group he's been hitting his threshold workouts really good and matching the top end speed with guys in the group. This will be Derrick's break out race and the only thing that would make it sweeter is if Cam was running the 5k, but I guess we'll wait and see, but for now I see him getting just over 13:00, 13:00-13:05 range, if not breaking 13

2)True: Ben freaking True was just off Gebremeskel in the 5k and crushed Chris Derrick in the last mile of the 15k, if anything he would kill a 10k right now, but he's running the 5k... Don't forget his training parter SAM CHELENGA ran 13:04 indoors in January giving Rupp a scare, so I know by now True can be in the 13:00-13:05 range

3) Jager: People seem to forget that Jager ran a 13:02 last year at DL Brussels and didn't he beat Rupp in that same race? With solid 3k speed from Steeple's he should be in contention for 13:00-13:05

4) Lamong: Can't say enough other than the 5k's his past 2 years, with a 13:11 win here with miscounted laps, a good tactical 5k at Olympic Trials, a great 3:51 mile beating Centro at Millrose and a 13:08 like 2 weeks later, it's hard to imagine he won't be in the 13:00-13:05 range outdoor

5) Hill: Ryan Hill has been ON FIRE! With a 7:34 3k (a time that 12:58 man Rupp split in his 2 Mile AR attempt) and his ability to hang with those Gebremeskel and Gebrehewit who have PR's of 12:46 and 12:47 (and don't give me crap about how they weren't going all out, Gebrehewit ran a 7:32 with Rupp the year b4) I think Hill is really to do some damage, and if he is there with 200 to go and Centro is no where to be seen, WATCH OUT! Regardless I say he is still in the 13:00-13:05 range

6) Centrowitz: I feel like he's going to realize the 5k is longer than he thinks, but with a backgroud of training with 10k runners like Rupp/Farah I think he may be able to make the jump... Moser had a 1500m background and she ran 15:13 at Oxy so he may be prepared, and with a 3:31 1500m and global medals he has the great mixture of speed and tactics, I'd say he's in the 13:05-13:10 range

7) Bumbalough: The guy who is great, but can never hit it spot on. but hey, he had a great 2k and Millrose and 3k and NBIGP plus he ran a PR of 13:12, with the stacked field I am confidence the top guys can pull him through at the 13:05-13:10 range

8) Heath: Okay, I know I am already going to get crap about this guy, but he ran 7:37 in the 3k at NBIGP beating some top guys and has mid-3:50i mile speed... he's really taken his step up and this race he is going to get the breakout PR he's been looking for, a sub-13:10... Look for him to hang on til about 400 with the pack, of course he doesn't have the finishing credentials as some others so for now I have him in the 13:05-13:10 range

9)Guys like Mead, Korir, and Estrada will love the honest PR past that's been set for them and will get in the 13:10-13:15

10) The collegians that are in the race and the other sub-elites are going to have to keep up and if they do we should see tons of PR's; I would sit here and list all the college elites but I don't have time, but guys like: Ben Sareel, Sean McGorty, Futsum, Parker Stinson, Joe Rosa, Joe Stilin, George Alex, Joe Bosshard, Brian Shrader, Shadrack Kipchirchir, Kirubel Erassa, Mitch Goose, Andrew Colley, Don Cabral, yeah all of these guys have a shot at the 13:20-13:30 range so lets see some PR's!

Thanks for reading my Payton Jordan 5k review, let me know what you think!

P.S. Don't be a LR jerk and rip on me, just having fun here

Don't forget about Jake Hurysz. Hurysz is a better 5k runner than 1500 IMO. His 5k there which was 13:38 a few years ago was very impressive and he blew away the entire field in the last 200. He has a 3:41 1500 best so you can't really count him out for the collegiates.

you clearly haven't a clue about the race

he didn't finish with an even-pace 61+ last lap but a 54 !!!

even more impressive was that he ran that last lap a lot out in lane 2 on the bends !

the pace dropped off a lot between 4k - bell

any guy who has 54 speed left for a last lap in a 12'46 is worth more like 12'40 at even-pace from the gun

because he's still a 5k guy & ran that 10k guy off likely primarily 5k training, making it a superb effort moreso when it's rumoured he was solo from ~ 4k in

nonsense

mo had to assume kennster woud turn up in 12'40/26'30 shape in last 2 majors, especially london, & woud go out at those paces

do you think mo woudn't have trained for this scenario ???

go rewatch his 12'46pb

he cruised around for 24 laps & just blasted the last lap

he couda gone 26'35/26'40 that day with a fast pace from gun, which it wasn't

he's was almost certainly better 1 & 2y later when peaking for majors

coach d wrote:Never going to happen, for the same reason that Rupp did NOT go after Hicham's record at BU.

The authorities know that they (Salazar) are doped to the gills--that's why USADA is testing them so much. And as long as they just win some races or ARs, the international authorities will roll their eyes and do nothing (though Travis Tygart is looking for some kind of excuse, obviously), becuase a positive test would do more damage (see: Diack going after WADA when WADA was threatening to kick Jamaica out). But Bekele, Geb, and El Guerrouj are icons of track and field, and if NOP goes after THEIR records, not even Nike's bribery will save them.

utter drivel

do you not think a 5k/10k guy running 3'28 had every tester in the northern hemisphere knocking at mo's door ???

ventolin cant read good wrote:Ventolin, he says "to think", "something reasonable", and "possible". None of things things mean he is certain of it. Furthermore, he is not the coach of Farah and does not actually know what shape Farah is in. He is just guessing.

eh ?

not me your replying to

as for canova, he's seen mo train in kenya & seen his shape

canova trained kemboi to 26'30 - a run worth much closer to 26'20 at even pace as he ran the last 600m of that in 1'23 which is 55+ pace for 600m !!!

he couda compared mo's workouts to kemboi's & drawn his conclusions

Good enthusiastic breakdown, but I'd have to put True, Jager, Lomong, and Hill above Derrick. I don't think Derrick has ever beaten any of those guys below a 10000, and I don't see it changing here.

Great post!

This will be a really fun race to watch and expect a fast time.

True just took Gebremeskel to the line at the BAA 5k, and put the hurt on Derrick at the Gate River 15k. He says he has a hamstring issue and top end speed isn't there, so I expect he'll put the pressure on early and take the lead with 4-6 laps to go.

Derrick may also help set a fast pace on the front because he doesn't have the closing speed of the other guys.

If Lomong, Jager and/or Hill hang with True/Derrick in the last mile, look for a fast final lap...I think a sub-13 time is very possible.

Saarel for a 13:20? That would be the fastest ever CU frosh 5,000... Would be great to see.