Sorry but you completely disregarded St Pierre. I hope she does the 5K. Her 3k World performance makes her a total major threat in the 5K especially relative to Henes, Andres and Infeld. That woman is on fire. And I hope she runs both.
Maybe ESP ought to worry about taking care of business in the 1500, and if she runs the 5k this year, I hope she gets her ass beat, my opinion.
I think Valby is a very serious contender to make the 5000m Olympic team. I think she will make the Olympic team. The list of American women who have run faster than her is not particularly long. On top of that she is great in the heat, which isn’t always a factor but can be at trials. The following women (who are currently running) have PB’s faster than what Valby just ran (and it didn’t look like she was particularly tired at the end).
- Alicia Monson - reportedly only running the 10k where her chance to medal is more realistic
- Karissa Schweitzer - coming back from injury and surgery and has a long way to go, and for what it’s worth is not ready to be running the TEN, but if healthy a factor for sure
- Elise Cranny - definitely a favorite to make the team as long as she’s healthy. Looks like she’ll be running 1500/5k
- Josette Andrews - she’s going all in on the 5k this year which makes her more of a threat and is definitely a factor but she has a history of not making it happen when it matters
- Elly Henes - also a factor, but had lung surgery in the fall and wasn’t in her usual form indoor season. She’s got time to keep building fitness
- Vanessa Frazier - her PB is from 4 years ago and she hasn’t come close to it since. I don’t think she’ll be a factor at trials
Courtney Frerichs/Courtney Wayment - likely all in on the steeplechase
- Emily Infeld - her PB was from last year, could be a factor. Unclear if running 5k/10k double or just one
- Rachel Smith - PB is a few years old, hasn’t run close to it recently (though did miss time for maternity leave). Seems to be focusing on longer distances but unclear
- Natasha Rogers - training has been Marathon focused, but she made it last year and is a wild card
slower PB’s but could be in the 5k final: Kelati, *St. Pierre*, Tuohy, Morgan
All this is to say - if people run the events that they are expected to run I just don’t see 3 people who I feel confident are going to beat Valby in the 5000.
What makes you think Cranny would do a 1500/5000 double? She isn't competitive internationally in the 1500 at all. Did I miss some announcement? If not, she's doing the 5000/10000 double imo.
I put Cranny, Monson and likely Schweizer before Valby, assuming Schweizer is mostly back health-wise (which is not a small "if"). If Monson doesn't run the 5000, then I'd definitely bet on Valby. I'd love to see Josette Andrews in there, but like you I give the edge to Valby.
Based upon what Cranny has said in the past (related to getting her doors blown off in the 10000m on the world stage), Cranny is not running the 10000m at the Olympics.
What makes you think Cranny would do a 1500/5000 double? She isn't competitive internationally in the 1500 at all. Did I miss some announcement? If not, she's doing the 5000/10000 double imo.
I put Cranny, Monson and likely Schweizer before Valby, assuming Schweizer is mostly back health-wise (which is not a small "if"). If Monson doesn't run the 5000, then I'd definitely bet on Valby. I'd love to see Josette Andrews in there, but like you I give the edge to Valby.
Don’t see Andrews making the team based on her past performances in key races. She chokes and more importantly has no strategy. Her PRs are in races with no competition and basically time trials. Hoping it’s Valby over her.
Andrews is solely focusing on the 5000m this season. I’ve got her and Cranny slated as the current top two in that event for the USA team.
After tomorrow's indoor 3k, we may not see PV again until the SEC outdoor champs May 9-11 . . . and possibly in the Steeple, which she teased a few months back.
That steeple story line will probably be one of the most intriguing questions in the history of Women’s NCAA Div I track.
I completely agree with you about St. Pierre, that why I wrote at the end *St. Pierre* under the women with slower 5k PB’s. If St. Pierre runs the 5k, I think it will be St. Pierre, Cranny, and Valby making the team. TBD what event(s) she will run. I think based on interviews/podcasts Monson, clearly another top American 5k runner, is only going to be in the 10k.
Is this consensus? Just watched & certainly looked like she made the pass & then got clipped. Tough for Providence & Washington, who both could have won this race if their 1600 runners didn't have to try to make up so much ground early. Wonder how this affects May in the mile final today as well. Not the way she wanted to run her leg.
Anyone have feedback on the broadcast? For once I'll have time to watch and am considering paying the sub. One of the few T&F events that you can't access somehow with VPN :(
Wonder how they treat the womens DMR protest versus the mens mile heat 2 protest. Sucks no Basten and the Furman kid got tripped from behind for sure.
Couple of things, I watched the Mile with Basten in it..3-4 times? Here is the problem with advancing guys who went down, aside from the obvious . Unless they were outright fouled, you should not get advanced because of bad or even horrific racing luck. Other things, Gary Martin who is very gifted has to fix his upper body torso twisting arm flailing style. It is a very inefficient style, he also runs his race if you rewatch it, way too wide and others just coast thru on the inside of him. The last point, I really do not see what the possible reason was or running Sahlman on DMR, even if he ran 3:55...they would have lost by 7 secs, that is just a horrible read by Mike Smith an excellent coach. You cannot make it something else. Sahlman will be compromised, no matter how big his talent, by having to produce a completely meaningless 1600 double back within two hours, chasing 13 secs behind an avg time(in the DMR world, not champs) for the DMR winner.
"just a horrible read by Mike Smith an excellent coach."
Providence did something similar trying to take the DMR, a couple hrs after the Mile qualifying, Treacy pushed his two stars into 3 Mid'Dis races in less that 24 hour including the stacked Mile final. And for what ? Their 800m leg falls down (or something) and they don't even finish top 3 in the Medley. Now they have two tired girls and it is not the way to go. He should have subbed two girls in the DMR.
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