London marathon elite fields- it’s crazy!!

epicTCK wrote:

Samuel DeChamplain wrote:

what is Bekele's current form?

Precisely. Bekele in good form is a massive threat to the WR. But he's probably not in good form.

As long as we don't hear that old "my fitness is at X%" twaddle, I'll be fine

Kipchoge is the clear favorite. It remains to be seen if Guye Adola can equal or exceed his performance in Berlin. Might keep an eye on Tola Kitata, though he is young and unproven at this level. The dark horse is Lawrence Cherono.

Bekele is such a talent that it's hard to count him out, but I think he is now past his peak performances and will not challenge for the win. Same for Wanjiru. Even though he is only 24 and the defending champion, I feel he is on the downswing and will end up like a number of Kenyan athletes that have 1 or 2 remarkable years and then fade away.

Abel Kirui and Ghirmay Ghebreslassie are only good at championship races. Neither will be a factor.

The marathon is not the best event for Bedan Karoki or Mo Farah.

grox wrote:

Ruppster wrote:

Only 2:09 guys like That Oregon guy and like slowmo are doing stupid tune ups

Did you see the master Kipchoge doing any of that nonsense?

I never quite understood "tune up" races. Is there a way to compete at your best a few weeks before a marathon? I doubt that. So why would you get paid to come to a race you're not taking seriously? Do race organisers get a discount?

Back when running was popular (and on TV) a lot of runners raced more often than most do now.

I think the 10k-15k road races were a pay day and a good, hard tempo run.

Seriously- if you could schedule a hard day for Saturday or Sunday and get paid to run it, why not?

There was no letsrun to claim that you're washed up because you ran 10K in 29:xx and no one cared that you were 5th or 6th and not 1st.

can't wait for this race wrote:

The marathon is not the best event for Bedan Karoki or Mo Farah.

What?

The last year's london marathon was Karoki debut at the event. He came in third and ran 2:07! The winning time was 2:05!

Dude just destroyed RAS with a course record. Took it to Mo at the WC at 10000m. He did all the dirty work to stretch the field.

He is a 58 min half marathoner, a blazing 10000m runner ( 26:52). If he is there with 10k to go in the marathon, no one will have the speed to stay with him

runn wrote:

Back when running was popular (and on TV) a lot of runners raced more often than most do now.

I think the 10k-15k road races were a pay day and a good, hard tempo run.

There was no letsrun to claim that you're washed up because you ran 10K in 29:xx and no one cared that you were 5th or 6th and not 1st.

But what's the point of watching someone underperform? The uninitiated might just be happy to recognise a famous name, but for the ones who care, it's a bit pointless. Even to get an indication about someone's shape before the marathon: if it's slow, they can just claim they trained through it (that might very well be true).

For instance, I watched Stephen Kiprotich come in eleventh at the 2014 Paris half marathon. Sure, I got to see him. But it's weird to watch an Olympic champion take a beating.

If I get it right, standard marathon training involves a lot of volume until very close to the race (say, two weeks), which should make it impossible to be anywhere near your best at shorter distances during the two to three months (or even more) before the race. That's what sets the marathon apart: you dedicate months to just that one race. And when you fail, it's really tough.

So if I bet you $100, and find an online betting site with 10-1 odds that Bekele won't break the world record and place a $20 bet there, I'm guaranteed a net payout of either $80 or $100.

El Keniano wrote:

epicTCK wrote:

Precisely. Bekele in good form is a massive threat to the WR. But he's probably not in good form.

As long as we don't hear that old "my fitness is at X%" twaddle, I'll be fine

Hopefully we don't hear that.

I wonder how people can evaluate how likely it is that Kenenisa is in shape. Most of the time, he and his group say absolutely nothing about his training or current shape.

grox wrote:

Ruppster wrote:

Only 2:09 guys like That Oregon guy and like slowmo are doing stupid tune ups

Did you see the master Kipchoge doing any of that nonsense?

I never quite understood "tune up" races. Is there a way to compete at your best a few weeks before a marathon? I doubt that. So why would you get paid to come to a race you're not taking seriously? Do race organisers get a discount?

because you can get paid!

you wrote it yourself, haha

these guys need money to eat and live and have a family like everyone else.

wouldn't you do a race in not-optimal fitness/rest to make thousands of dollars?! You'd be unwise not to

That's the runner side. Now look from the viewer or organiser side. (And even from the runner side, you might want to preserve your image.)

Adola is supposedly around 31/32 according to a source insider in Ethiopia. You saw his best in Berlin, and he will not approach that again.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

can't wait for this race wrote:

The marathon is not the best event for Bedan Karoki or Mo Farah.

What?

The last year's london marathon was Karoki debut at the event. He came in third and ran 2:07! The winning time was 2:05!

Dude just destroyed RAS with a course record. Took it to Mo at the WC at 10000m. He did all the dirty work to stretch the field.

He is a 58 min half marathoner, a blazing 10000m runner ( 26:52). If he is there with 10k to go in the marathon, no one will have the speed to stay with him

I'm definitely more confident in that statement re: Farah. Karoki's debut in London was good and I could be wrong , but my guess is that his best event is the half and he will never achieve equivalent results at the marathon. If he is there with 10k to go, I think that he will fall off the leaders by 35k.

can't wait for this race wrote:

Kipchoge is the clear favorite. It remains to be seen if Guye Adola can equal or exceed his performance in Berlin. Might keep an eye on Tola Kitata, though he is young and unproven at this level. The dark horse is Lawrence Cherono.

Bekele is such a talent that it's hard to count him out, but I think he is now past his peak performances and will not challenge for the win. Same for Wanjiru. Even though he is only 24 and the defending champion, I feel he is on the downswing and will end up like a number of Kenyan athletes that have 1 or 2 remarkable years and then fade away.

Abel Kirui and Ghirmay Ghebreslassie are only good at championship races. Neither will be a factor.

The marathon is not the best event for Bedan Karoki or Mo Farah.

+1, I agree with every single point you make. I do think that Karoki is going to put together one or two wonderful marathons in his career, but this isn't the one.

As much as I would like to see Bekele shine one last time, I think his window of opportunity gas passed. My money is not on Kipchoge...It is on the defending champion Daniel Wanjiru. He will repeat. Kipchoge will be third.

1st - Wanjiru

2nd - Bekele

3rd - Kipchoge

I agree that Cherono is the real guy to watch. There's no reason to doubt Kipchoge for first, but I think Cherono is a likely second. Of course Bekele, Adola, and Biwott are super when they're on, but Bekele is too unpredictable, Adola is unseasoned (and his half in Houston was not extremely impressive), and Biwott has been sidetracked with injury since his phenomenal run for 2nd in 2016 London. Wanjiru is one to watch too but his last half was rough. I'm always rooting for Karoki but after getting stomped by Moen in Fukuoka its hard to pick him over many other in the field.

I wonder what the plans for halfway will be ...

can't wait for this race wrote:

Kipchoge is the clear favorite. It remains to be seen if Guye Adola can equal or exceed his performance in Berlin.

Exactly. He had a fast Berlin, but so did Dennis Kimetto, who has since fallen off the earth in terms of performances.

Not many people can produce back to back 2:03ish performances. That said, I'd still like to see him win, if not finish at the top.

A lot of impressive PRs, but PRs only give the athlete's fastest CAREER time. A lot of those guys are past their prime and can't run that fast any more. More than a few are gonna get exposed.

UA Runner wrote:

can't wait for this race wrote:

Kipchoge is the clear favorite. It remains to be seen if Guye Adola can equal or exceed his performance in Berlin.

Exactly. He had a fast Berlin, but so did Dennis Kimetto, who has since fallen off the earth in terms of performances.

Not many people can produce back to back 2:03ish performances. That said, I'd still like to see him win, if not finish at the top.

Comparing Dennis Kimetto with Kipchoge- wtf?

Kipchoge has 8 or so consecutive wins, are you aware of that? Or were you born at 2017?

Kipchoge HAS been producing sub 2:04- last London 2:03:05, sub2 event- well obviously not that 2:00:25- but it is equivalent to sub 2:04 for sure, Berlin 2017- 2:03:3ish in wet conditions. So cut the crap.

It would be foolish to bet against kipchoge.