Trump2020OP-the real one wrote:
President Trump has personnaly called Ryan Vail to encourage him to represent U.S.A. in Berlin noting that even though he's not expected to be on the podium it's never wrong to Expect Great Things.
MAGA
Trump is a German. Maybe he asked Ryan to bring him a memento from the Hitler Museum.
Calling it right now...Bekele FTL!
2miler wrote:
Last part of course, from 30km on will be into the wind.
Personally, I think the humidity is worse than the wind, no?
As we've learned in recent weeks, it's critical for proper coverage to have "boots on the ground." I've emailed Prof Sean Hartnett - who is Berlin - tonight and asked him for his thoughts as he's viewed a the Marathon Professor and seen a ton of marathon WRs.
When asked about the weather he said, "Light rain now should taper off by race time, but the big remaining concern is the expected 54 or 55° dewpoint. Good weather but not perfect."
I asked him how the weather compares to a normal Berlin wind and dewpoint.
He wrote, "The normal dew point is 40 to 46, anything above 50 get sticky.
"Wind does tend to be 5 to 10 miles an hour so that is close to normal. We usually talk about everything needing to be perfect, perfect weather perfect pacing and perfect performance, dew points of 52 to 55 or a little less than perfect, but the extra drink stations may help a bit. "
So there you have it. It sounds like they've added aid stations which is interesting. Also in terms of splits, he won't have his own website this year as they are working with tv. Splits should be great as he wrote, "This year we have a biker on the course dropping an arm when the split marks are crossed that also sends the splits to TV. So the TV splits should be accurate and we can send you a complete list after the race."
Race starts in 12 hours so we want to get the thread up now in case we forget in the middle of the morning. Let's hope it lives up to the hype.
If you haven't read our previews, do so now.
Men's preview:
Women's preview:
Update at 8:10 pm ET:
As we've learned in recent weeks, it's critical for proper coverage to have "boots on the ground." I've emailed Prof Sean Hartnett - who is Berlin - tonight and asked him for his thoughts as he's viewed a the Marathon Professor and seen a ton of marathon WRs.
When asked about the weather he said, "Light rain now should taper off by race time, but the big remaining concern is the expected 54 or 55° dewpoint. Good weather but not perfect."
I asked him how the weather compares to a normal Berlin wind and dewpoint.
He wrote, "The normal dew point is 40 to 46, anything above 50 get sticky.
"Wind does tend to be 5 to 10 miles an hour so that is close to normal. We usually talk about everything needing to be perfect, perfect weather perfect pacing and perfect performance, dew points of 52 to 55 or a little less than perfect, but the extra drink stations may help a bit. "
So there you have it. It sounds like they've added aid stations which is interesting. Also in terms of splits, he won't have his own website this year as they are working with tv. Splits should be great as he wrote, "This year we have a biker on the course dropping an arm when the split marks are crossed that also sends the splits to TV. So the TV splits should be accurate and we can send you a complete list after the race."
another runner wrote:
Anyone got a link to watch for free in the US?
It's on NBCSN. You can get a free 7-day trial to Fubotv which includes NBCSN below:
https://www.fubo.tv/welcomeI though it would be worthwhile to go back and read last year's preview to see what the guys were saying pre-race and also try to see if our Berlin live thread had anything about hte temperature.
In terms of the temp, here is what someone wrote 1 hour before the start last year, "56 degrees, increasing to 62, east wind 5-7 mph." So that's very similar to this year's (but as Hartnett pointed out, the dewpoint is higher this year).
In terms of pre-race chatter, Kipsang last year said he wanted the WR and that he felt he was in the same shape as when he ran his 2:03:23 WR.
Bekele said he thought he was at 80% - this year he has said it's 90%.
“The fire burns still,†Bekele told race organizers. “I know that I can still run faster and my time will come. That is what drives me…The plus side is that I am at last able to train without pain. I would say that I am 80%. It will be good enough to set a personal best, a time around 2:04, but I don’t think it’s enough for the world record.â€
Also last year Bekele got dropped early. at 28k, he was 5th.
Kimetto's WR halfway split was 1:01:45. This seems like it could be like that London race of a few years ago where the halfway split was insane and someone comes from way back at 24M to win the race. I hope not.
I found last year's weather on weather underground.
Last year, for Berlin Tegel, the wind was 7 mph+ basically the whole time the race was being run.
The temp was 58 or 59 at the start and just over 60 the 2nd half of the race.
The dewpoint was lower. 46 at the start ane 48 or 49 at the finish.
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EDDT/2016/9/25/DailyHistory.html
Ok folks, it's time for predictions. I just called John Kellogg. John, what do you want to see. "Sub-2. 1:55," he said with a laugh. "It would prove they all are on drugs."
JK is predicting some cat and mouse games and a 2:03:25 winning time.
On our podcast, Jonathan Gault predicted a 2:02:25 - 2 minutes slower than sub-2. Wejo debated picking 2:01 but then said 2:02:34.
After Manza, I said Kipchoge could run 2:02 flat. However, I like rooting for the underdog. I never liked Bekele when he was on top but do now. Bekele 2:02:47. I'm no longer worried about the wind but if they go out faster than 60:45, they do not break the WR.
Kipchoge is the best but Kipsang said it best, he may not be recovered from Manza.
If Kipsang gets the WR, adidas will be very happy. Additionally, he'll be just the 2nd man in history to get back the marathon WR after losing it.
5 runners have broken the marathon WR multiple times including Geb (twice), Derek Clayton (twice), Khalid Khannouchi (twice) and Jim Peters (4 times). But Abebe Bikila appears to be the only man to break the WR, lose that WR , and then get it back. He ran WRs in both of his Olympic wins.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
It's Monza.
Winner in at 2:04:06. Too fast at half, Kipchoge tired. Not one of the big 3.
I've got Kipchoge FTW at 14 seconds under the current WR.... now knowing wind and dew point I'm thinking maybe the winning time will be over 2:03:00 now though...hard to say. I think he's mentally pumped from the sub 2 project still. Could be 2 guys under 2:04 also (I originally predicted 3, but now I'm thinking there will be some big fades for the podium).
I’m boots (high heels) on the MF ground. In the last start corral with the rest of the hobbyjoggers. Right now (0335 CET) it’s raining and it better quit. :(
Should stop very soon.
rojo wrote:
Also last year Bekele got dropped early. at 28k, he was 5th.
He wasn't really dropped, he was slowing down at the drinks stations for his own Maurten drinks, Kipsang tried surging at these opportunities. But Bekele would quickly catch up (not saying it is optimal though).
slumpy man wrote:
So whats the move? Stay up or sleep a few hours and set a 3:00am alarm?
I'm setting an alarm and getting up to watch at the 1:30 point.
another runner wrote:
Anyone got a link to watch for free in the US?
Download the Chrome Extension:
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/unlimited-free-vpn-hola/gkojfkhlekighikafcpjkiklfbnlmeio?hl=enThen, set your IP to Germany. Then you can watch the same link the Germans watch.
Good luck. Give em hell.
