Bekele/Kipchoge Push Sub 2

VDOT for 1:59:59 42.195km: 86.1

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 01:59:46

Half marathon: 00:57:10

15K: 00:39:50

10K: 00:26:01

5K: 00:12:29

3Mi: 00:12:01

2Mi: 00:07:44

3200m: 00:07:41

3K: 00:07:09

1Mi: 00:03:37

1600m: 00:03:36

1500m: 00:03:21

I am a bot. Info:

http://habs.sdf.org/trackbot

I think sub 2 hours have to wait for an other 20 to 30 years but low 2:02 is possible from these guys. My honest assessment is that Bekele or Kipchoge will run 2:02:30 or even 2:02:15. After them, i think Kamworor will break the world record and he will run 2:01:57. That will be around 2018. After that we will have to wait 5 to 10 years until someone break the world record and run 2:01 low.

Go go go go!!!! wrote:

No. Don't be an idiot.

Bekele did not run a single 5k split at 2:00:00 pace, so what makes you think he can run 8 of them back to back?

You are a dumb idiot.

For what it's worth, in his fastest marathon before yesterday he didn't run a single 5k split at 2:03:03 pace.

I think someone needs to organize a two hour exhibition race on the track. Invite Bekele, Kipsang, Kipchoge and a couple others and get the best pacers possible. Those guys HAVE to be running a lot farther than 42.2K on the road--they run as a pack and often don't run the tangents very well, plus they are veering off the preferred line for drink tables, etc throughout the race. Put this on a track and you'd eliminate most of the extra distance, pacing could be better monitored, and they could break a bunch of intermediate records along the way. We are not to sub 2 territory just yet, but it would be interesting to see just how close to 42.2K they could get in two hours on the track. My guess is 2:01:30 or faster based on what they did yesterday, so they would come up just over a lap shy of covering the marathon distance in two hours.

I don't think Bekele is at a stage of his career where he can get in a long enough block of injury-free training to attack 2 hours for the marathon, but it would be great to see him take a shot at breaking 58 for the half on a record-eligible course.

Naturalrunner wrote:

I think sub 2 hours have to wait for an other 20 to 30 years but low 2:02 is possible from these guys. My honest assessment is that Bekele or Kipchoge will run 2:02:30 or even 2:02:15. After them, i think Kamworor will break the world record and he will run 2:01:57. That will be around 2018. After that we will have to wait 5 to 10 years until someone break the world record and run 2:01 low.

Yes, the world record will continue to progress linearly in the future.

TrackBot! VDOT 1:58:00 marathon

VDOT for 1:58:00 42.195km: 87.7

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 01:57:54

Half marathon: 00:56:17

15K: 00:39:13

10K: 00:25:37

5K: 00:12:17

3Mi: 00:11:50

2Mi: 00:07:37

3200m: 00:07:34

3K: 00:07:03

1Mi: 00:03:34

1600m: 00:03:33

1500m: 00:03:18

I am a bot. Info:

http://habs.sdf.org/trackbot

To break 2 hours they would need to run 7 seconds a mile faster than the current world record. Seven seconds a mile is huge!

I don't see it happening. Maybe a blade runner aided by modern technology.

Or the equivalent in running shoes.

With guys running well under 1 hour for the half it stands to reason that someday somebody, on a flat course, in perfect weather, with pacers (and who knows what else for a boost) will either negative split with an opening half just over 60 mins, or blaze the first half in 59 flat and come home in 61 (less likely). Either way we'll see 2:00:xx at some point, though it may be a number of years. Sub 2? Not in my lifetime, though I can eventually see some unknown 18 year old Kenyan making headlines with a 1:59:59 WR finish that makes the front page of LRC, but doesn't make ESPN.

the reality is wrote: Not in my lifetime, though I can eventually see some unknown 18 year old Kenyan making headlines with a 1:59:59 WR finish that makes the front page of LRC, but doesn't make ESPN.

Good one.

TrackBot! Dope Kenenisa Bekele

No doping offenses found for Kenenisa Bekele

I am a bot. Info:

http://habs.sdf.org/trackbot

Under perfect conditions and pace setting Dubai would be ideal because of the lack of turns. However sub 2 isn't going to happen, but I think they could push each other to a sub 2:02.

I think it would take offering the top 5 finishers a large pot of money if any one of them breaks 2 hours. Have them work together instead of against each other

Naturalrunner wrote:

I think sub 2 hours have to wait for an other 20 to 30 years but low 2:02 is possible from these guys. My honest assessment is that Bekele or Kipchoge will run 2:02:30 or even 2:02:15. After them, i think Kamworor will break the world record and he will run 2:01:57. That will be around 2018. After that we will have to wait 5 to 10 years until someone break the world record and run 2:01 low.

M 2:02:33 = 2:15:25 W - 10.5%

Sub 2:02 2021

Sub 2:01 2030

Sub 2 is only a question of when. People thought 4 couldn't be broken. Once the mental barrier is broken, it becomes possible. Consider the progression of the marathon. In a decade or two, the record has gone down 3 minutes in less than 2 decades. Almost 7 minutes in the last 4 decades. It will go down someday, the progression will be slow though. Maybe 2:02 by 2030 2:01 by 2050 2:00 by 2080? Who knows, but there's no evidence to suggest it can't happen other than that Bekele is the current GOAT and can't hit it. Viren was an king in his era and now he would be an also ran because of how much the sport has progressed.

BKMKE wrote:

Can Bekele and Kipchoge be the two that push a Sub 2 marathon. What race and when? Discuss...

YES!!! Sub 2 is going to happen!

Have you guys read this

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/16/sports/two-hour-marathon-kenenisa-bekele.html

This makes me believe it will happen in the next 10 to 15 years