Do I have any shot at sub-2:32:00?

Wow, I hope I'm still training at that level when I'm 40. That's some solid stuff.

JK's conversion chart puts you at about 2:34 based on that half:

http://www.letsrun.com/2007/jkconversion.pdf

You could go out at around that pace and then pick it up after the half if you feel good. More seasoned marathoners would probably tell you to take a more conservative approach than even that.

I'm with you though, I like to think big so I can understand just going for 2:30 from the gun. As others have said though, bonking will kill your overall time if it's not the right pace.

I'm doing Chicago as well. Good luck!

Soprano wrote:

JK's conversion chart puts you at about 2:34 based on that half:

http://www.letsrun.com/2007/jkconversion.pdf

In my opinion, looking at his workouts and looking at his 1:12low that he ran alone he is able to be a good bit faster than 2:34. Just my opinion.

Yeah, I would go out on pace to be just under 2:35 and then try and pick it up from there. 2:32 is definitely conceivable, but still a little risky.

To answer the question as it was phrased, yes, I think you have a shot at 2:32. That said, none of your workouts clearly indicate that you're at that level. The 5k and the 1ks suggest that you definitely have the potential to get there, and possibly even under 2:30, but your long runs aren't marathon specific enough to tell us for sure. The alternating HMP/MP workout is nice, but it's a different beast from a 15 mile MP run. Also, marathon workouts are much more revealing when the quality is done at the very end of a long run, rather than right in the middle. The 1:12 also indicates that you COULD be in the ballpark, but again, the list of runners who failed to run marathons as fast as their halves would indicate is quite long.

I say go out at 5:50 pace for the first 13-16 miles. By then, you'll know if you can push the pace, but you won't have started so conservatively that you'd feel like you wasted your race if you end up being strong at that point.

After reading everyone's posts, I wouldn't be surprised if you ran anything between 2:29 and 2:38. If anything, I would start the race on the slower side of that spectrum. But to be honest, the only marathon I've run without a watch is also the only one I've run anywhere close to even splits (I ran the second half 2 seconds slower than the first half). Every other marathon I've slowed down by >=2 minutes in the second half.

My advice would be to run on feel - start the race at a pace that feels too easy, focus on settling in during miles 2-13, start to test yourself from 13-20, and try to finish with a gutsy 10k.

I ran a 2:33:52 on fewer miles (100 peak, 85 average), with slower 5K and half marathon PRs in the build up. I think I could have run that 22 mile workout and maybe the half, but not a chance in hell for the 5K and the 1K repeats would have been a good track workout, but not on hills.

I think you've got it assuming you've run the marathon before and understand nutrition (hint: You'll want to take in a lot of calories on the go).

Sounds like you have a solid base. Looking at your times and workouts, they would suggest you are more prepared for a half-marathon and shorter than a marathon, based on my limited but similar experience. Off 80-90 mpw and no 100+ base, i ran 2:31 (mildly hilly) in my mid 30s. The big difference I note in your build-up versus mine is the volume of the quality work. You have a much more stable, high-volume base but your quality work volume seems slightly lower in comparison. My tempo day left me wiped, but the tempo runs started with 12 miles warmup in the 6:15 or lower range followed by 8 miles in the 5:35 to 5:40 range. I did a higher volume of 1k repeats with less hills and less recovery both times (12 by 1k off 60-75s depending on phase of training). That said, you should be in a similar fitness level (and perhaps superior considering how well you are recovering). What made a difference was being in control the first 20 miles or so then attacking or conserving depending on how the legs were race day (and heat factors). If the weather is cool, go out on 2:32 pace and just monitor closely your exertion so if you are cranking at 10 miles or 14 miles to maintain, dial it back. IF you feel great at 18 or 19 start slowly stepping it down. IF it is hot on race day, be more conservative and start out on 2:34 or even 2:36 pace and adjust at the early mark and again at 20 miles as necessary. i had one marathon where i went out strong in the mid section but had to dial it back at 20 to avoid bonking. Just listen to your body, that is the advantage of being an older runner, you know what it is saying now.

Go out & run 5:50 for each of the 26.21875 miles! Which marathon are you running? 2:32:51 is a 5:49.9 mile pace. That is what I would shoot for.

Sorry I see it's Chicago! Good course for even running and good pacing.

The 15:40 and 1:12:02 (especially if it was without pushing) say you can run 5:50 miles.

I ran a 2:32 just before my 44th birthday with no where near that level of training. Go sub 2:30. It's there for the taking.

congratulations on dropping so much time! I think that breaking 2:30 is a possibility for you. Being able to do that high quality 22 miler week in and week out suggests that, as does a 1:12 HM run alone as a tempo. However, you probably should run more conservatively and then have the chance to get another big drop the next time out, rather than possibly crashing. Chicago is fast on a cool day, if you get that, and you'll have plenty of people to go the right pace. An even 1:17 to the half is probably a better idea and then pick it up to 20 and see what you can finish in.

Some have already said as much, but I ran 2:33 flat on a Boston-like course when my training and race times were almost identical to yours. The only difference is that my weekly mileage was not as high. I would predict around 2:30 in Chicago.

I would aim something closer to 2:33-:34 pace and start pushing around 16.

I have nothing close to your speed, but was able to drop a sub 2:37 in Boston at age 40. I had a bunch of solid workouts that clearly showed I would hit my goal. e.g. 8 to 10 x mile repeats. many many 20+ long runs some easy making sure to log 3 hours on feet and some starting easy working down through MP to HM to ending close to 10k pace.

Please post how you do.

Good luck

How fresh were you for the HM? That's a few seconds quicker than I ran 4 weeks before I ran a 2:27-high, but mine was part of a long run in a big mileage week.

Looking at your 5km to HM conversion though (27s per mile), that's nearly as much as my 5km-Mara. If you were proportionately the same that would put you at 2:30 on the nose.

The world changes after 18 miles. Have you run many marathons?

Have you conditioned yourself to run hard after 20 miles, for a good 25+ min?

It looks good on paper, but we have all seen dozens who we thought would run well in a marathon and were not prepared for the 26.

I ran 2:34 on flat big-city course, off of 12 weeks of 80-90 MPW. I ran 2 x 74 for the HM on hilly courses in the buildup. I ran ~16:15 for 5K the summer after. I would have been able to do your K repeats session the year before, but probably not while marathon training. Also ran 72 for the half the year before. I went in aiming for 2:32, was on it at 30K before slowing without dying, if you see what I mean.

Think your overall condition is better than mine was, what you have not done as much is practice running ~18 minute 5K pace, especially at the end of longer runs. Some do fine without this, I struggled with the marathon until I learned to love the MP workouts.

On balance, I'd say that going out in ~76 if conditions are good will feel very comfortable, it'll be harder to start much slower off of your fitness. You'll only find out later in the race if that long run is doing it for you.

Nice body of work, good luck.

Yes , definitely. You have marathon experience and seem to have a great engine, the training done that most could only dream of .

Go for it. 75 through half way see how you feel. Always treat these oportunities like your last chance.

Good Luck.

Thanks for all of the replies so far. Lots of good stuff on this thread. I have registered this name so that I can continue to update the thread between now and Chicago. I will try to nail down a halfway goal split in the next week or so and I will post after upcoming workouts. To the person who asked about my half a few posts up - I basically trained right through. It was a normal mileage week, but I backed off a bit on my mid-week workout.

you think you need an asterisk by a 2:43 at Boston??? I can see why your friend thinks you're nuts. Yes, you need to be aiming at least sub 2:35.