Farah's chances of winning London?

'Merican Marathoner wrote:

Xfit_guy_the_real_1 wrote:

The Kenyans have to eggs to the wall approach. Have thousand of runners run unstructured workouts and 1 or 2 of them succeed. Up until recently, there were not a lot of western athlete/coaches who looked at Marathon training with a holistic approach like Salazar does. That's why the Africans were able to dominate for so long. It looks like this period is coming to an end now.

Where are all of these non-African marathoners? Our best marathoners are on the downside of their career. A 2:13 wins the US title? Please.

They're working real jobs because they don't need to run to escape poverty. Also the top marathoners aren't going to do non-Olympic championship races to save themselves for paydays.

they're working real jobs cos they can't run fast enough to make REAL MONEY

just sayin wrote:

they're working real jobs cos they can't run fast enough to make REAL MONEY

i know, what a joke the other guy's excuses are.

and newsflash: a guy like Teg doesn't work a real job and is very talented and has all the "advantages" of running for nike and western coaches like sal and schu that cult_fit_paleo_clown outlined (lol). so..... he should be running 204 real soon right? can"t wait!

Tyrannnosaurus Rexing wrote:

and newsflash: a guy like Teg doesn't work a real job and is very talented and has all the "advantages" of running for nike and western coaches like sal and schu that cult_fit_paleo_clown outlined (lol). so..... he should be running 204 real soon right? can"t wait!

Teg can't even run anywhere close to what he used to run. He's not a very good example of whatever point you're trying to make.

I'd say Mo has a very very low chance of winning.

For the simple reason that he can run 3:28. I just can't see a 3:28 guy running 2:04 - I think those two times require different body types.

As for why he is doing it if he can't win...this is sports, man! This is not a math competition. For whatever reason, a spring 14 marathon matches his wishes, plans and bank acccount.

My guess is that he isn't sure if he wants to do another track race at rio or move to the marathon, and this will help him decide.

I think he'll fade at 18 when the big surges start, and come home in 2:07, which everyone will say was a great debut. Which it would be.

agip wrote:

I'd say Mo has a very very low chance of winning.

For the simple reason that he can run 3:28. I just can't see a 3:28 guy running 2:04 - I think those two times require different body types.

As for why he is doing it if he can't win...this is sports, man! This is not a math competition. For whatever reason, a spring 14 marathon matches his wishes, plans and bank acccount.

My guess is that he isn't sure if he wants to do another track race at rio or move to the marathon, and this will help him decide.

I think he'll fade at 18 when the big surges start, and come home in 2:07, which everyone will say was a great debut. Which it would be.

1. Body types change with training. They are not fixed.

2. Farah is doing London as a part of a contract from last year, isn't he? Wasn't the deal that he would run half of the race in 2013 and then the full in 2014? He is chasing money.

agip wrote:

For the simple reason that he can run 3:28. I just can't see a 3:28 guy running 2:04 - I think those two times require different body types.

False. 3:28 runners and 2:04 runners have the same body type which is best described as

S C R A W N Y

lslo wrote:

1. Body types change with training. They are not fixed.

Right. Ronnie Coleman, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rich Froning, to name the three most influential strength athletes of the last few decades, weren't born BIG. They worked hard to become as strong as mf big as they are now and they deserve your respect.

I am sure Mo Farah could BULK up and look like a real man if he wanted to. I am sure his wife would appreciate it.

I'd put it at around 5% only because when you put a player like mo in the game he demands a level of respect and more importantly fear. They know they can't let the place slip and allow him to be in it when the racing really begins. On the other hand if they hammer out WR pace they risk blowing up. And what if it's an honest pace and mo is still hanging after 30k? That's going to beat up on everyone's mental game.

#YOBRO wrote:

I'd put it at around 5% only because when you put a player like mo in the game he demands a level of respect and more importantly fear. They know they can't let the place slip and allow him to be in it when the racing really begins. On the other hand if they hammer out WR pace they risk blowing up. And what if it's an honest pace and mo is still hanging after 30k? That's going to beat up on everyone's mental game.

except the way these marathons generally go lately (except NY and Boston) is everyone hammers the first half. If someone gets dropped, he heads for the sag wagon and goes home.

So I'm confident that the pace will be fast from the start, blowups be damned. And I just don't see Mo hanging much after a 62 minute first half.

But yeah, if he is there at the 90 minute mark it will certainly be intimidating.

You do realize Mo was born in Somolia, right, which is in Eastern Africa...I mean, its even more east African than Ethiopia. So, the African's will continue to dominate. Continue trolling, but try making more sense when you do.

Xfit_guy_the_real_1 wrote:

just sayin wrote:

So the Kenyans are doing good it all wrong ?

Have you spoken to renato about this yet?

The Kenyans have to eggs to the wall approach. Have thousand of runners run unstructured workouts and 1 or 2 of them succeed. Up until recently, there were not a lot of western athlete/coaches who looked at Marathon training with a holistic approach like Salazar does. That's why the Africans were able to dominate for so long. It looks like this period is coming to an end now.

agip wrote:

If someone gets dropped, he heads for the sag wagon and goes home.

Except for Mo. He doesn't share the mentality of the Africans. He is there for the win and if he doesn't win, he is still going to give it his best. He is not going to give up.

That's one of the reasons why Mo makes millions of pounds. He is a fighter and never gives up.

So the best marathoners are saving themselves for 1 race 2 years from now? Really?

#YOBRO wrote:

I'd put it at around 5% only because when you put a player like mo in the game he demands a level of respect and more importantly fear. They know they can't let the place slip and allow him to be in it when the racing really begins. On the other hand if they hammer out WR pace they risk blowing up. And what if it's an honest pace and mo is still hanging after 30k? That's going to beat up on everyone's mental game.

Yeah right. Elite marathoners do not fear people like the weaklings in the 5k/10k that Farah is used to. They will push the pace and then push some more. They are not dumb like Farah's usual competition.

Bekele played with Farah's kick in a 60:10 race. 2:04 marathoners have nothing to worry about.

Hard to say with a first time marathoner.

Interesting that he is favourite with the bookmakers. So there's probably money to be made by betting against him if you're certain he won't win.

owi wrote:

[quote]#YOBRO wrote:

Yeah right. Elite marathoners do not fear people like the weaklings in the 5k/10k that Farah is used to. They will push the pace and then push some more. They are not dumb like Farah's usual competition.

Bekele played with Farah's kick in a 60:10 race. 2:04 marathoners have nothing to worry about.

they can get pretty dumb when it comes to championship marathons

as evidenced in london 2012 and many more over the years

0% Chance. Farah couldn't even beat an out of prime bekele in the half marathon distance. How the hell is going to beat kipsang and others in the full marathon distance.

pr100 wrote:

Hard to say with a first time marathoner.

Interesting that he is favourite with the bookmakers. So there's probably money to be made by betting against him if you're certain he won't win.

It's easier to say with a first timer than one with experience. Very unlikely to win. Considering he'll go with the lead pack, fair chance he'll DNF. Geb ran 2:06 in his debut and took years to get really fast.

Geoffrey Mutai has juicy odds at 12/1 compared to Mo's 3/1.

Is that Rupp at 4:08 in the video?