Abbey D'Agostino the Next Great American?

Victor Maitland wrote:

Mrr82 wrote:

Just expected more dominance IF she had improved upon last year.

Did you watch the frigging race? She ran to win, not to see how much she could crush the field by just to satisfy Internet dorks. That's what you do when you're the prohibitive favorite and the conditions suck. Yeah, she won by "only" three seconds but she gained them with striking ease.

Did you? I'm a big Abbey fan but she didn't pull away as well as I would have expected if she'd improved since last year. I'm not sure you comprehend what's being discussed. Someone of abbeys ability should be able to put 3 seconds over the last 100 meters on the two girls she beat with ease. Abbey looked like a 15:35 girl out there instead of the 15:11 girl.

Ludacris12 wrote:

Tyrannnosaurus Rexing wrote:

she is a poor woman's Jordan Hasay. Jordan is light years above her. Abbey is good collegiate - Jordan is the best

This must be sarcasm since within the past year Abbey beat Jordan for 2 National titles.

To be fair Hasay placed higher (although different race) at the highest level.

Opinionated guy wrote:

My opinion is she will follow the path of every talented young U.S. woman before her. Unless she hooks up with the high profile PED-induced training group in the west, she will do things different than what got her her to her current level. This includes a huge increase in miles, a big change (+ or -) in numbers of races, etc. She will level and continue to be good, but never great. I hope I am wrong and that she and her coach stay the course of what got her there and she continues to progress without the inevitable jump to the dark side.

Uh huh. Like Shalane Flanagan or Shannon Rowbury did??

Le Renard wrote:

Uh huh. Like Shalane Flanagan or Shannon Rowbury did??

No, I was thinking more of the dozens and dozens and dozens who were excellent collegiate runners, and moved away from what made them great. They never really found their niche to be great although it appeared that they were "can't miss" prospects. There are a lot of other factors that play into it such as support of a training environment, a desire to pursue a career beyond running, making running their 'only' focus, etc. etc. My point is not to criticize, just that it much more difficult to move to the next level beyond an excellent college runner than most people think and the actual process involved is detrimental to many, possibly most who try. My initial thought was an exaggeration to make the point: "75 miles per week made me top 10 in college, what will 110 miles do?" In most cases it will steer the person away from what got them there with mileage and training becoming the focus over racing and enhancing the positives. I see it as grasping at straws, and it is. It's a TOUGH step from "college good" to "world good" that many don't recognize.

Not taking anything away from Abbey, but this was a slightly down year for the women at NCAA cross. The step up from NCAA to the next level is big and girls who make an immediate impact are the ones like Sally, Jenney and Shalane who were dominate in the NCAA. With Kara and Shalane in the twilight of their careers and Molly not making any improvement in the last 3 years, Abbey will probably make national teams, but there will be couple of years before she will compete with East Africans.

Unfortunately, the more Abbey beats up on the NCAA competition, the less patience people will have when she turns pro.

AD was simply running to win - merely a step up from 2nd and 3rd, the last 2 years. No point, and a definite risk (ask Kithuka), in trying to dominate the field.

Here will be her progression in the next 4 years - 2012 (5000 - 15.11); 2013 (5000 - 14.45, just misses AR); 2014 (5k/10k - 14.30/30.30); 2015 (5k/10k - 14.20/sub-30min); 2016 (5k/10k - 14.15/29.40). These will be the "real" world records, unless another American gets there first, even though others are credited with such (cheaters). This is assuming that she stays with Coogan, if not then all bets are off. Given Molly's progression she might be better to go to Providence than to the NOP if Coogan isn't an option.

I guess we will see how Hasay progresses under AlSal to decide if that is the better alternative to pursue. If Hasay runs under 14.45 and 31.00 in the next 2 years, and/or Rowbury runs 3.55/14.30 next year then that might show that he can get the women to run fast for distance. Cain will stick with 1500m and should easily go under 4.00 (with a 1.57 and sub-15.00 to boot) next year, eventually to get under 3.50 (take that Chinese record off the books), or AS hasn't developed her properly. I am not convinced that Rowbury has the speed for a really fast 1500m (but then look at Mo Farah), but given her 3000 PR (8.31), she should be able to extend that to 5000m (so 14.12), but I don't think she will as he will try and get her limited speed down instead (as with Mo and Galen). So American women will take over from the East African women (whose testing will be come more stringent) as the best in the world, on the track anyway - still lots of work to do in the marathon, even to take down Deena's AR. Should be at least a couple of American women under 2h15 with a handful under 2h20 given the great coaching available in the US, not everyone can be a track star.

I believe it's great to dream big, but most everything you said in this post is ridiculous. Cain under 3:50? Rowbury challenging the 5000 world record? Multiple American women going under 2:15 in the marathon? Get real, bro.

I love Abbey, but the next great American woman won't be a runner.