Big gap between past performance and current expections--MRP now?

I'm excited for you OP!

Looks like you might be in for a major PR improvement on race day.

My hunch is that your hunch is right, and you should go out at 8:30 pace and try to hold on. And depending on your luck, you just might feel good enough to pick up the pace a bit in the last couple/few miles, and gain extra energy from passing people.

3:30-3:39 is within your grasp!

Just noticed, subject should be "expectations", not "expections". Sorry.

Based on your 10K time and maybe even more importantly, your 16 miles at 8:01 after 10 the previous night - it seems to me you might be able to make a push for going under 3:30:00 (8:00 pace). At the minimum, perhaps go out a bit slower than that - 8:10, 8:15, 8:20 at most? And then pick it up if you can at the end.

By comparison, I'm 56 and was thrilled to do a 46:18 solo 10K on the track about five weeks ago and am looking at a marathon next January. It's early, but at this point, I'm thinking I'll end up going out around 8:12 pace and holding for the duration, which would be a 3:35:00. The past couple of years I tried going out at 8:00 pace and I've finally realized I'm just not fit enough for that.

start here or Allen1959, do you have any suggestions?

I was in a similar situation recently where it was hard for me to set a target pace but a big PB seemed possible based on training runs. I looked at my heart rate during a tune up half marathon. Then made sure my heart rate during the marathon was comfortably below that. The result was an 18 minute PB to get down to 2:48. I felt good the whole way but probably left a little speed on the table by being a too conservative with my heart rate based approach. I was really happy with the results though.

I think you might be in for a pleasant surprise on race day.

It takes years to develop your aerobic capacity. I'm not sure how new you are to running, but you probably made some significant improvements after you switched up your training. I'll give you an example of my progression as I took up running and training to run a marathon which looks similar to yours. I'm 51 now and here is how it progressed for me:

Spring 2016 2:46:xx - training loosely based on the Higdon plan and no workouts (25-40mpw roughly)

Fall 2016 3:29:12 - training loosely based on the Higdon plan and no workouts (30-50mpw roughly)

2017 Q1 No running and PT for injury, Q2-Q4 carefully rebuild running volume with a focus on quality over quantity

Spring 2018 3:02:58 - Got serious about training and used the Daniels 2Q plan to get my BQ (45-65mpw)

Fall 2018 2:57:06 - 2Q plan again (50-70mpw)

In 2017 I did do some shorter races and PRed in those races at a relatively low volume. So my change in training style was improving my fitness. One of those races I left some time on the course because I had underestimated my fitness. I went into that race with a pace in mind but ended up running faster at the start, dialed back slightly and decided even though it was faster than planned I was OK with how it felt. I thought 1:35 would have been a stretch for me when I started the race, but ended running 1:33 and was able to really pick it up at the end. There is a reason why I bring this up...

How confident are you that you can run this race by perceived effort and not monitor pace? Going by pace may end up holding you back from running it to your current ability. It looks like you used the Daniels calculator for the race equivalence which is a bit optimistic for the marathon equivalent. Based upon your 10k time and the fact that you are training at 50-70mpw, you should be able to average under 8min pace. I think 7:50ish would be a good place for you to start and of course you will need to adjust for hills. Another reason to go by effort and not pace. You mentioned running 16mi for 8:01avg. How did this run feel to you? That same pace will feel easier on race day after your taper.

Good luck with your race next week. No matter what you choose to do, come back to this thread and let us know how it went.

Congratulations on your progress! I find that encouraging. (Should your time for Spring 2016 be 3:46, not 2:46?)

My 16 mile run felt smooth, not at all forced. My notes after it were "Breathing fine, legs not heavy".

Running by perceived effort is something I've been transitioning to naturally in training, at least for easy and tempo runs. For intervals I try to stick to targets because I tend to overdo things. I run mostly 4 and 5 mile loops around the neighborhood and generally only check the time at the end of a loop--I used to check every mile. If I'm ahead of the planned pace and still feel relaxed, I don't slow down. I suppose I'll do the same for the race, but when you talk about "not monitoring race pace", I'm not sure I have the experience or intelligence to do that for a marathon yet. I don't plan to be a slave to race pace, but I need base to work from. You suggest I go out at 7:50 or so, but to me it seems too fast. My latest plan (it's changing every day now) is to stick close to 8:10 pace for the first half, then go more by feel from there, knowing that there are three big hills at miles 21-22. Even if I were to only maintain 8:10, it would be a huge improvement. But maybe I'll change my mind again before the race. I'm really looking forward to it.

Thank your for you advice and encouragement.

Yep, that was a typo. Spring 2016 should have been 3:46.

I see nothing wrong with going out at 8:10 and then picking it up if you are feeling good. You may leave some time on the course but you will have the experience of another marathon and likely a sizable PR. Three big hills that late in the race are going to be an interesting challenge.

mjk63 wrote:

... My latest plan (it's changing every day now) is to stick close to 8:10 pace for the first half, then go more by feel from there, knowing that there are three big hills at miles 21-22.

That's a reasonable plan. In good weather, on a flat course, I think you could break 3:30. But with those big hills so late in the race, being conservative is a good choice.

A few years ago, at age 57, I was in similar fitness condition prior to my marathon. However, just now looking back on my training logs, I see it's difficult to draw any direct comparisons.

My long runs were in hot, humid conditions (quite a bit of walking), my schedule was low-mileage supplemented with bicycling, and the marathon itself was net downhill with perfect weather (Mohawk Hudson in Albany, NY).

My 16-week training average was 21.0 mpw. Peak week was only 46.4 miles, two weeks before the race.

But there were some similarities. I was about the same age, and although I was an experienced marathoner, it had been 14 years since the last one. Like you, I had a couple 20-mile training runs, and a 23-miler.

My fastest 20 was at 7:58/mi including a couple breaks. 7:52/mi actual running average. 23-miler averaged 8:48/mi on a hot and humid day, including six minutes of walking/hydrating.

On race day, I started with an 8:00 mile, then settled in at 7:51/mile, running by "feel." Got a little antsy at 14, and ran a few 7:30's, paid a price at 25 miles, finishing with 8:16, 8:22. Average pace was 7:51/mile -- exactly what I intuitively felt was "marathon pace" after the first mile.

Trust your instincts, and have a great race!

mjk -- A couple additional thoughts (see previous post) ...

As I mentioned, prior to my age 57 marathon, it had been 14 years, and I really had no idea what my MP should be. I had only raced three times at ANY distance in a dozen years. Two if those races were kayak-bike-run triathlons, including one two months before my marathon (6:45/mi for the 4-mile leg).

So, I somewhat arbitrarily decided on 8-minutes per mile. But after hitting Mile One at exactly 8:00, that intuitively felt too slow, and I settled at 7:51 pace, which turned out to be my average for 26.2.

A year later, I again was unsure about goal MP because I injuries severely hampered the last couple months of training. I had perfect weather again, on a rolling course (Wineglass in Corning, NY), and after an easy first mile, I trusted my intuition, and settled at 7:05 pace.

This time, however, my instincts were a little off, as I faded a bit the final three miles to average 7:11/mi. Still, not a big crash, and even in hindsight, I would run the same.

Those splits looked like this:

7:32, 7:03, 7:05, 7:05, 7:06

7:05, 6:53, 6:58, 7:00, 7:12,

7:13, 7:07, 7:09, 7:09, 7:09,

7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:03,

7:02, 7:04, 7:02, 7:33, 7:33,

7:40, 1:28

(I doubled my training mileage compared to the previous year, added workouts, more racing -- made a big difference!). Stay healthy, and have a good race.

Oops, that was 7:09 per mile average, so even closer to the 7:05 pace that intuitively felt like "marathon pace" at the first mile point.

Again, trust your instincts!

Congratulations on the great progress over the last two years. I'd favor going out at 8:45 like you originally suggested. It is possible you could demolish your PR by going out faster, but also even more likely to risk injury. If you finish with gas left in the tank, you know for next time. But if you get injured it may take another 2 years to get back to where you were and could be mentally devastating.

Given your age and running experience, make a goal to not get injured and slowly chip down your PB as you gain miles under your belt. After a total of 5 years and 10 marathons you will have a good idea. The training runs can indicate progress, but it is easy to feel overconfident and it takes a couple weeks for those runs to have effect (in my experience). Don't overdo it too soon.

I just saw your post. Thanks for the update.

You have a lot of things working in your favor. One is your 16 mile run at 8:01. That's farther than I can go at MP. Another is your 18-mile run with the last 9 at 8:02 pace on the course. That's a huge advantage and another strong suggestion that 8:00/pace is well within your range. You've also been running decent mileage, including long runs. Hopefully you're into a nice taper and feeling fresh, too.

But your marathon build-up wasn't super long, and you're relatively new, so some caution is in order. Here's how I'd approach this.

8:00-8:05: This is definitely doable. Start off the race in this range or just slightly slower.

7:50-7:55: Your predicted pace + 10 seconds. I think all signs point to you being capable of this. The hills are the only question mark (apart from other things that can go wrong in a marathon, like fueling and 100 other things). You'll probably end up on this pace after 3-6 miles, and it won't feel hard.

7:40-7:45: At some point, you will find yourself running this pace. It will likely feel easy, even exhilarating. There's a good chance you can't keep up the pace all 26.2 miles, at least this week. If you see this pace appear before 10 miles, back off and be patient. If you see it before 20 miles, back off and be patient. If you see this pace after 20 miles, go for it.

It's good you know the course, because the hills will mess with your pacing strategy a lot. Prepare to find it harder to run down than to run up the hills. Good luck and let us know how it goes.

XK18 wrote:

Given your age and running experience, make a goal to not get injured and slowly chip down your PB as you gain miles under your belt. After a total of 5 years and 10 marathons you will have a good idea.

Thanks for your advice. What you say makes sense. I'm very conscious about my age but that works both ways. I think that injury is inevitable eventually for someone in their mid-50s training and racing marathons, so I'm very careful and have been lucky so far. Being conservative would be wise. But on the other hand I honestly don't think I have 5 years of quality running left. I'd like to grab what I can while I'm healthy. We'll see how things go.

mjk63 wrote:

XK18 wrote:

Given your age and running experience, make a goal to not get injured and slowly chip down your PB as you gain miles under your belt. After a total of 5 years and 10 marathons you will have a good idea.

Thanks for your advice. What you say makes sense. I'm very conscious about my age but that works both ways. I think that injury is inevitable eventually for someone in their mid-50s training and racing marathons, so I'm very careful and have been lucky so far. Being conservative would be wise. But on the other hand I honestly don't think I have 5 years of quality running left. I'd like to grab what I can while I'm healthy. We'll see how things go.

You are fighting Father Time. A 3:30 at age 55 is equivalent to a 3:40 at age 60. There will be a point where the PBs won't happen anymore. If it were me, I'd be a little more aggressive.

Old-Timer wrote:

You are fighting Father Time. A 3:30 at age 55 is equivalent to a 3:40 at age 60. There will be a point where the PBs won't happen anymore. If it were me, I'd be a little more aggressive.

I agree--you said it more concisely than I did in the previous post.

Allen 1959--Thanks for the detailed history. You're much faster than me but your experience gives me some context for my own situation.

Start here--All of your scenarios seem realistic . Thanks for thinking it through so thoroughly. I'm pretty much settled on going out as close to 8:10 as I can for the first half and then come what may after that.

Thanks to everyone for your advice.

The race went very well. Thank you again to everyone for their advice. I finished in 3:31:31, 17th overall out of 156 finishers and 2nd of 9 in my age group. It was very cold and windy, the wind chill at 25 degrees with 20 mph winds. They give splits at every 6.55 miles on the computerized results (it was a 13.1 mile loop, run twice) and mine were 54:25, 51:56, 54:50, and 50:29. This doesn't coincide at all with my impression during the race, since the big hills were in the 2nd and 4th quarters. (I don't have a computerized watch to save splits myself.)

Start here, my race played out pretty much according to your scenarios. The first mile was around 7:45 but I held back and kept a check on the pace and felt great at the half (it was actually a half marathon PR for me too at that point). I tried to stay at 8:10 pace until getting past the hills at miles 21 and 22 and then I let go a little. I never hit the wall but the last two miles were painful. Funny, but the wind was so strong at that point, I kept touching my race bib, afraid it would tear off and I wouldn't get an official result. My pace for the last quarter was 7:42, which is encouraging. My overall pace was 8:04.

The new BQ cutoff for my age is 3:35. Is 3:31:31 likely to make the cut for 2020?

Thanks again to everyone for your generous help.

Congratulations. Nicely done. 20 mph wind is no joke. I've run under those conditions before, and it's not much fun. It probably added a few minutes to your time.

I'd guess your time will be close to being accepted, but it's hard to predict. I don't know if you want to run a flat, fair-weather marathon in early September just to be sure. You've definitely got the potential to go faster, but I don't know how many marathons per year is good for you.