Predict my NYC Marathon time (and training feedback!)

Could you predict a race if someone else posted this exact post? No? Then we can't either.

I can only offer this anecdote: With very similar mileage, a previous PR of 2:45, and much slower 8K and 5K times (27:19, 16:04), I ran 2:40:30. The marathon course was perhaps less challenging than NYC, and race-day logistics certainly so. Good luck.

2:37:18 what do i win.

have you ever been on this website? No? because I haven't either.

But actually why is this type of post shocking to you. people post dozens of these per day

What's missing is the length of your MP tempo runs. Were you going 4 miles or 16 miles? It matters.

As it is, your PRs get worse the higher you go in distance, your mileage isn't really high for someone aiming for a 2:40 marathon, and just one workout a week (and one MP workout every 2 weeks) isn't all that intense of a training regimen. Someone with enough talent could break 2:40 with that amount of work, and clearly you have some talent. But it's a tossup whether you have enough, since the workouts (or what we know of them) don't obviously point to it. 2:42:26.

start here wrote:

What's missing is the length of your MP tempo runs. Were you going 4 miles or 16 miles? It matters.

As it is, your PRs get worse the higher you go in distance, your mileage isn't really high for someone aiming for a 2:40 marathon, and just one workout a week (and one MP workout every 2 weeks) isn't all that intense of a training regimen. Someone with enough talent could break 2:40 with that amount of work, and clearly you have some talent. But it's a tossup whether you have enough, since the workouts (or what we know of them) don't obviously point to it. 2:42:26.

Very fair, I appreciate that feedback! My two best workouts, in my opinion, were a 6xmile (5:58, 5:58, 5:56, 5:54, 5:55, 5:54) and a 7-mile tempo at 6:05 pace. There was also a 3x6minute workout and plenty of hill workouts (5x2minute, 9% incline).

I would've loved to do more mileage, but unfortunately I'm just in a crazy season of life, I'm happy I got what I did. Plus, it was the most I've ever done and didn't want to risk injury (I lost two months of running after a hip injury I got from Boston this spring).

My 13.1 time is from four years ago and I think realistically it should be closer to 1:12:30. I'd be plenty happy with a 2:42, that'd be a PR still!

160goal wrote:

6xmile (5:58, 5:58, 5:56, 5:54, 5:55, 5:54)

How much rest?

6x1 mile workout does not indicate sub 2:40. Honestly not even sure it indicates sub 2:45 unless you did it after a 10 mile warmup, or on 30 seconds rest. So either you're sandbagging your workouts or you're in worse shape than you were for your PR.

If you didn't mention your PRs I would say you are looking at about a 2:55. To be honest with your PRs(much quicker than mine) I am not sure how you think either the workouts (7M tempo, 6x1mi) or build up was good. I am not sure your current 5k, 5M, HM times compare to that of your PRs from 4 years ago. The talent factor, which it appears we are on two different levels (a lower level for me), I can't really adjust for in any meaningful way. I'm going to guess 2:47:39. Goodluck

It was on a 2 mile warmup with 90 second rest. Most certainly not in worse shape than I was for the PR haha but I think I appreciate the backhanded compliments.

RunnerSam wrote:

If you didn't mention your PRs I would say you are looking at about a 2:55. To be honest with your PRs(much quicker than mine) I am not sure how you think either the workouts (7M tempo, 6x1mi) or build up was good. I am not sure your current 5k, 5M, HM times compare to that of your PRs from 4 years ago. The talent factor, which it appears we are on two different levels (a lower level for me), I can't really adjust for in any meaningful way. I'm going to guess 2:47:39. Goodluck

Thanks for the well wishes. I just graduated college this spring and spent four years running track and XC races, with the occasional half or full 26.2 mixed in (I raced 3 marathons during college). This is my first marathon on pure marathon training and I'm sure there's plenty I could improve upon in my training cycle.

Besides more frequent workouts, any other training feedback? I appreciate the help.

What was your longest run? another important detail we'd need

I guess more mileage is an obvious catchall advice. include marathon specific workouts, workout twice a week.

examples:

4x2mi @HMP

3x3mi @MP-10s/mi

2x4mi @MP-5s/mi

10ez 10@ MP

Long & Steady LR (MP +30s/mi)

4mi 3mi 2mi 1mi @ MP MP HMP HMP

3x(2mi, 1mi) (HMP, HMP-10s/mi

-RunnerSam

160goal wrote:

I just graduated college this spring and spent four years running track and XC races, with the occasional half or full 26.2 mixed in (I raced 3 marathons during college). This is my first marathon on pure marathon training ...

I think your talent and experience will get you very close to 2:40, if not under. I weighed in earlier, noting our similar mileage, your faster PRs, and that I ran 2:40:30 (also in my early twenties a year after college).

I had PRs of 16:47, 34:12, 1:13:50 (20K), 2:52 marathon. The marathon was from the previous year; the other PRs were set in three consecutive weeks just at the start of the 18-week marathon training.

Weekly mileage for the 18 weeks:

55, 52, 62, 68, 37, 34,

49, 12, 36, 20, 54, 54,

39, 62, 46, 72, 40, 28.

Six long runs of 18 or more miles. Training included mostly easy runs and progressions finishing at maybe 5:30/mi pace. No workouts, per se. The six "long runs" include two full marathons (2:47, 2:45). The only other race was a 5K PR of 16:04 in the 17th week. Considerably slower than your best 5K.

I will conservatively predict 2:40:16. Good luck.

RunnerSam wrote:

I guess more mileage is an obvious catchall advice. include marathon specific workouts, workout twice a week.

examples:

4x2mi @HMP

3x3mi @MP-10s/mi

2x4mi @MP-5s/mi

10ez 10@ MP

Long & Steady LR (MP +30s/mi)

4mi 3mi 2mi 1mi @ MP MP HMP HMP

3x(2mi, 1mi) (HMP, HMP-10s/mi

-RunnerSam

This is super helpful, I'll definitely be doing these through the winter in training for Boston. How long is the Long&Steady?

This is plenty helpful, thanks. Our training definitely seems similar. I did 5 LRs of 18+, longest I got to was 21.

asdfasdfsdfsd wrote:

160goal wrote:

6xmile (5:58, 5:58, 5:56, 5:54, 5:55, 5:54)

How much rest?

Your 6xmile workout with 90 secs rest should be fairly comfortable for a 1:20 half marathoner in shape. Should be trivial for a 2:40 marathoner.

That being said, most 2:40 marathoners couldn't touch sub-16 in a 5K

I am going back and forth on this. Your 5k indicates way more than 2:40, but your mileage and workouts seem underwhelming. Also, your workload at MP is light, narrow, and limited. Since this a marathon, and not a 5k, stamina (not speed) is king. NYC is a tough course. Your talent will help you, but I am unsure of how much. How people can jog around at mostly easy pace most of the time and then magically run a fast marathon has always been a mystery to me. I am a marathoner (and an old guy), and focus almost exclusively on modeling that pace, on a near-daily basis...lots of high-end aerobic/progression work. I want marathon pace to be in my blood, to be second nature. Therefore, it is difficult for me to make a prediction for you (or for most people), as I am averse to the ubiquitous polarized training model (in whatever form or flavor)...but different strokes for different folks, I gather. Since I could handle the workouts you have mentioned (but I surely lack your top speed), I will say it might be tough for you to break 2:40 at NYC. Perhaps something like 2:42? Again, I come at this from a different angle, and so take my prediction with a grain of salt. I am shooting for 2:45 or better at Richmond, and I wish you the very best at NYC.

160goal wrote:

It was on a 2 mile warmup with 90 second rest. Most certainly not in worse shape than I was for the PR haha but I think I appreciate the backhanded compliments.

It wasn't a backhanded compliment, it's saying that you aren't training nearly hard enough given your talent level. If you truly are a sub 2:40 marathon, you should be doing things like 3x2 and 4x2 at 5:40 pace with 2 minute rest, not 6x1 at 5:55 with 90 second rest. If you can run sub 2:40 without getting any real training done at your true LT and with the mileage you're running, you should easily get under 2:30 with proper training.