Both are outside shots, at this point.
Both are outside shots, at this point.
I think Meb making team would be more surprising since he would be like 44 years old and several years out of competition. I still think Gwen has a shot if everything goes right.
"Bigger Surprise" implies that both of these things already happened
Gwen would surprise me more, we all know that Meb could be in contention, and he only needs to worry about 2-3 people blowing up to look at a spot. Gwen needs some sort of carpet-bomb moment
title police wrote:
"Bigger Surprise" implies that both of these things already happened
No it doesn't.
Chris Barnicle has a better shot of making the team, compared to these two.
Gwen needs to switch sports again if she wants to excel at something. I have an idea or two.
Gwen would be a bigger surprise. She has a long way to go to become competitive with five women who will shoot for 2:25.
Biggest surprise would be Meb and Bernard Lagat making the team.
Gwen has not shown she can run a full 'thon fast enough to put her into the mix for the 2nd or 3rd spot.
Meb has proven he knows how to compete on race day. Whether or not there is enough younger talent to compete for the 2nd and 3rd spot is the question.
Gwen bigger surprise. Her chances making team less than 20%.
Meb chances of making team are 30%.
M.A.G.A.
I would put men’s chances higher at 50% so I would be way more spurpised if Gwen made the team (let alone win) given the state of US marathoning, I’d say the women’s field is much stronger than the men’s side.
Parker Stinson?
I'd be more surprised by Gwen. After Rupp, the men's side is pretty open. There is a lot more competition for the women's spots.
Gwen would be the bigger surprise. And I'm not a Gwen hater, either. Meb made it in 2016, and there really aren't any people that would for sure beat him this time around if he got close to the shape he was in then.... the second and third spots after Galen seem pretty wide open with no clear favorites. But Gwen would have to beat Jordan, Desi, Shalane, Amy, at least 2 of those 4, which seems impossible (assuming they are all healthy).
I agree it's Gwen. She's pretty tall for a marathoner and I only recently noticed her form seems a bit laborious. A lot of hunched shoulder action. Meb has a way of living up to the moment.
title police wrote:
"Bigger Surprise" implies that both of these things already happened
This guy must have traveled from the future, lol.
If Meb starts training now I'd say he has a very good chance of making the team. A year ago in NYC he was the 3rd American behind Abdi and Biwott. No one besides those two (and of course Rupp) has done anything since then to suggest they could beat a fit Meb. So Meb just needs to beat either Abdi or Biwott at the trials.
In order for Gwen to make the team she basically needs all the current top US women to either retire or get injured. Shalane might be retired. Desi might be too old by 2020. Huddle and Hall too. Cragg and Hasay get injured a lot. Thweatt was just injured. But the chances of every single one of those women not showing up to the trials is almost zero. So I'd say Gwen has almost no chance.
Key word in the post's title is "marathon". Surely, Gwen J. has a much better chance of making the 10K team.
OK, I'm here in the UK, have seen her run only in triathlons covered by the BBC and in various Youtube videos, but to me she does not look like a marathon runner. She is one of those people who look better running at a faster pace, much more relaxed, fluent economical etc. Maybe she was badly advised. You know, the triathlon is an endurance event that lasts for a couple of hours, so is the marathon (more or less) so that's your natural event.
But, hats off to her for trying. Most of us would simply have sat back and enjoyed being a gold medalist!!
2016 trials:
http://www.usatf.org/usatf/files/7a/7a029d05-ad33-4860-aaca-d3024ebf6f7e.pdf
Current (pre-Chicago) performance list:
I’m going to say sub 2:14 makes the team. So if Meb can run sub 2:14...
I’ll say he doesn’t.
Alan
Precious Roy wrote:
Gwen would be a bigger surprise. She has a long way to go to become competitive with five women who will shoot for 2:25.
Biggest surprise would be Meb and Bernard Lagat making the team.
Not really, the state of US Marathoners on the Mens side in the USA is embarrassing at the moment with only ONE man running at a World Class level.
Rupp has a chance for a medal in Tokyo, given the weather conditions, but there are no other men in the US at the present time that are anywhere remotely close to be World Class.
tough to be 'retired' due to age and lack of performance. You always think that you can still have one great day. The problem is that for that to happen, you have to have hundreds of great days in training before that.
And then on the day its still a bit of a crap shoot.
Not sure I'd want to change from an competitive international athlete to a guy who is just making the starting line.
2:12 is not 2:02 . 2:14 even less so.
They'll be in the showers when he is coming up the straight as an also ran
I'm a big Galen fan and not rooting for him to get injured...but... What if Galen is injured and can't run the trials. Could our team be Meb/Abdi/Lagat? Would it be twice as old as other teams competing?
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
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