Fastest 10000m this year is presently 27:19.6. You have to go all the way back to 1988 (27:21) to see a slower WL

malmo wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Note that this year we had a Commonwealth Games, so that should RAISE Kenyan stats.

.

Since when is the Commonwealth a big deal?

Ever hear of Rob DeCastella?

Could Jacob Kiplimo take the WL at 10000m at world junior tomorrow? His best is 27:26 from two years ago and he was 4th at the Commonwealth games this year in 27:30.

Note that he will still be in the junior category next year (his IAAF birthday is 2 month after Jakob I). He is now 17 y.o., therefore he was 15 y.o. when he ran 13:19 and 27:26 two years ago. He holds the 14 y.o. and 15 y.o. world best for 10000m and the 15 y.o. world best for 5000m. His progression slowed down in the past couple of years, so he doesn't hold any of the 16 and 17 y.o. records

The problem is that there are only two guys with sub 28 credentials at world junior, so the race may be slow.

yyy wrote:

The problem with this kind of stats is that Kenyans are now all over the world (Bahrain, Turkey...)

There are two sub 1.45 guys representing Australia but from Kenya. How do you count these guys.

Yes, there are Kenyan-born athletes all over the world. And one of the problems with counting them is knowing who they are in the first place. As for this two AUS 800 runners, Peter Bol is Sudanese born. Same for Joseph Deng. He was born in a refugee camp inKenya, but his mother is Sudanese.

asdgasdfdsf wrote:

Fewer track 10Ks now. How does the 5K situation compare?

1301 world lead

Kvothe wrote:

asdgasdfdsf wrote:

Fewer track 10Ks now. How does the 5K situation compare?

1301 world lead

What year is it? 1993?

True, the event is not run as much as in the past. Too bad, I love this event. I've been a fan of it since Munich, where Viren fell, then got up to grab gold and a world record.

It does pick up during WC and Olympic years. I hope it is not dropped. We'll see.

malmo wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Note that this year we had a Commonwealth Games, so that should RAISE Kenyan stats.

.

Since when is the Commonwealth a big deal?

What? Are you saying that if two kenyans run under 1:45.5 at the trials who probably wouldn't have at this stage of the season, as they did, that their times 'don't matter'? O.K., so they don't matter, so we'll exclude them. That the means the stats for the 800m are actually :

13 (2016 to July 8th)

12 (2017 to July 8th)

6 (2018 to July 8th)

Um....no wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Well, partly, but for the 800m, which appears to be slowing the least, two of their sub 1:45.5 athletes ran those times (their best of the season so far) at the Kenyan trials.

So if you took out the Kenyan trials for the Commonwealths, the figures for the 800m are (and I incorrectly put 11 rather than 10 above) ;

2016 : 13

2017 : 12

2018 : 8

Whatever you "said" regarding the 800m matters little since the thread is about the 10,000m. You are free to join that discussion if you wish.

So you are the mod, or you just think you are?

This is relevant to the discussion as regards 10000m, because the issue for most sane people is whether the reason is 'talent has gone to the roads' or 'better testing'. If 800m times are declining too in Kenya, that does sugggest the reason is at least partly better testing.

If Joshua Cheptegei wasn't injured I was expecting his potential to be the 26:30's, maybe not this year but maybe sub 26:50 this year. He could just be a 1 of getting sub 26:50 once and never been at that level again.

I literally think if Bekele went down to the 10000m again he could get a wc gold in 2019 and maybe gold in 2020. Imagine getting a 10000m gold again after nearly 10 years brake from the track. Bekele could still be under 27:19.

Evan Mo Farah could be under 27:19 to. He will probably go back and get another gold and Bekele will stay at the thon for the wr.

yyy wrote:

The problem with this kind of stats is that Kenyans are now all over the world (Bahrain, Turkey...)

There are two sub 1.45 guys representing Australia but from Kenya. How do you count these guys.

Yes, I guess Kenyan born athletes representing Australia are Kenyans, and never mind both are Sudanese with one having a Sudanese mother because...same difference.

And I'm the 'racist' here.

Well anyway, the two Australian/Kenyan runners are interesting cases, but it doesn't impact on the thesis that Kenyan times are getting slower in Kenya because of better testing there. It's' a long shot to claim that both Bol and Deng would be running sub 1:45 in Kenyan vests today if the circumstances of their lives had been different and neither had ended up in refugee camps as children and then moved to Australia and gained citizenship.

There are 150,000 Kenyans in the UK (and that's just the legal ones), and I have yet to hear of a Kenyan running star from the GB or even a Kenyan winning a UK schoolboy title or such.

I don't know what the figures in terms of Kenyans and Kenyan refugees admitted to Australia over the last decades, but I would bet that every Kenyan and East African boy is funnelled into (middle or long) distance running by their physical education teacher there, just as Mo was in the UK.

Bad Wigins wrote:

writing on the wall wrote:

The writing is on the wall: The track 10k is KAPUT!. It is no MORE. It will soon be DROPPED from the Olympics. Track 10k; RIP.

With any luck it will take the worst field events with it as they will now have less airtime available. I say cut the ridiculous TJ and maybe the greek frisbee.

The death of the 10,000m has brought on the death of t&f, the idea is to be on TV for as long as possible, not less time on air. The demise of the 5,000m as well is like McDonald's getting rid of the Big Mac and fries, just dopey.

(I agree with getting rid of the TJ though)

Maybe extensive discussion of the Deng and Bol examples belong in another thread. But as they're frequently being used as examples that 'prove' Kenyans are naturally superior runners, including in this thread, I'l say a little bit more.

They both have the same coach, who happens to be one of the best in the world and who has worked with the likes of Rudisha and Lagat. He picked both out after seeing them run in local track meets and invited both to train under him.

Couldn't this be just a bit like Canova - 'the greatest distance coach in the world' - going to Kenya and training local youngsters into Olympic champions and then claiming Kenyans are simply better runners?

These guys clearly have the mindset that Kenyans do make better runners, and coaches do tend to like to work with the best runners, especially if they have the 'world's greatest coach' plaudits as their goal. It all tends to be a bit self-fulfilling.

According to Australian census figures, in 2006 alone around 10,000 Kenyans arrived in Australia to seek refuge. Most would be mothers with their children, such as in the case of Deng and Bol. So perhaps well over 5,000 Kenyan children arriving in Australia every year. With the subsequent sterotyping and need to prove themselves in a sport in perhaps the most sporting mad nation on Earth (and perhaps not being good at any other sport than running) it's not really so surprising and statistically unlikely that two Kenyan born youngsters, hand picked by one of the best coaches in the world who clearly sees every young Kenyan boy as potentially 'the next Rudisha' end up being world class 800m runners. Remember that neither have yet broken the Australian record set nearly half a century ago.

https://www.runnerstribe.com/features/bol-deng-rinaldi-james-templeton/

*set literally half-a-century ago.

Ok, my bad. But the point is the switch of citizenships I suppose.

Kenyans moving to many other countries all over the world does not explain recent decline of kenyan performances in the last two years. It happend more than 20 years ago (Kipketer to Denmark) and was intensified about 10-15 years ago with a lot of Kenyans literally 'bought' by countries like Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey. But it didn't change suddenly this year. If it is doping related, or other reasons like a regular recovery year without olympics or world championships, I don't know.

Coevett said: I have yet to hear of a Kenyan running star from the GB or even a Kenyan winning a UK schoolboy title or such.

that's because the majority of those Kenyans young enough to be schoolboy superstars are not actually from Kenya. in the 1960's and again in the 1980's there were large migrations from both Kenya and Uganda to south Asia. those populations are now migrating to the UK, bringing with them "Kenyan" schoolboys who have not had the typical high-altitude 6-mile run to school and back each day that begets superstar runners.

cheers.

Partridge wrote:

Kenyans moving to many other countries all over the world does not explain recent decline of kenyan performances in the last two years. It happend more than 20 years ago (Kipketer to Denmark) and was intensified about 10-15 years ago with a lot of Kenyans literally 'bought' by countries like Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey. But it didn't change suddenly this year. If it is doping related, or other reasons like a regular recovery year without olympics or world championships, I don't know.

Hi Partridge where is your pear tree?

We have no pear tree, but a lot of cherries at the moment. If you like you can get some.

However, my previous post was a serious contribution to the discussion. In my opinion other people over here concentrated too much on the fact that you have a lot of kenyans in other nations. This does not explain sudden decline in 10 k (and also 800 - 5000 m) performances in the last one or two years. They have been there before, and not just moved all at the same time recently.

Moreover, the original topic was about 10 k performance world wide, which includes Kenyans wherever they choose to live.

The timing of the commonwealth games obviously has had a damaging effect on the season of some athletes from all countries involved. The fast races tend to be in June/July but these athletes were peaking for April.

Look at Jake Wightman, and Kyle Langford for example. Both have struggled this summer after running very well at the Commies.

Things will pick up next year.

Also the past few years there has been a 10k at Eugene where Farah would run a decent sub 27 time but I'm not sure there was one this year.

Some of your misunderstandings of this sport come from the fact that you've never competed seriously. If you ever experienced peaking for a competition you'd understand that it's very difficult to run well for even weeks afterwards let alone months.