Fastest 10000m this year is presently 27:19.6. You have to go all the way back to 1988 (27:21) to see a slower WL

Cleanest year since 1988?

chill, its july 7th.

[3.1]Miles Davis wrote:

chill, its july 7th.

What races are left?

You won't see a sub 27:19 winning time at the European Champs. Is there a big 10000m in August somewhere?

Hshhshsh wrote:

We are in mid July already and the fastest 10000m of the year is 27.19.

Good thing that the Commonwealth Games was not too tactical, otherwise the WL could actually be 27:32 right now

What happened to the 10000m this year?

How many major 10,000m races have there been this year?

Sand Dunes wrote:

Cleanest year since 1988?

Roads gone to the talent.

Well it's not looking good for the doping apologists who claim that Kenyan times aren't slowing down.

These are the figures for this stage of the season (July 8th) in 2016, 2017, 2018

Note that this year we had a Commonwealth Games, so that should RAISE Kenyan stats.

800m number of Kenyans under 1:45.5

2016 - 13

2017 - 12

2018 - 11

1500m number of Kenyans under 3:35

2016 - 7

2017 - 10

2018 - 5

5000m number of Kenyans under 13:10

2016 - 5

2017 - 2

2018 - 1

10000m number of Kenyans under 28:00

2016 - 23

2017 - 17

2018 - 6

I'm detecting a pattern here...

The writing is on the wall: The track 10k is KAPUT!. It is no MORE. It will soon be DROPPED from the Olympics. Track 10k; RIP.

The only noticable trend there is that 2018 is only 7/12th over...

Coevett wrote:

Note that this year we had a Commonwealth Games, so that should RAISE Kenyan stats.

You may be correct about doping controls slowing things down in Kenya however the Commonwealth Games being "this year" should have little to no bearing on the slower times. The Kenyan Commonwealth team was named 6 weeks into the year after a trials at altitude. There's no reason to have any expectation that this set of circumstances would lead to faster overall times from any one nation including Kenya.

SkepticalMan2 wrote:

The only noticable trend there is that 2018 is only 7/12th over...

Err, no, I gave the figures for up to july 8th 2016, july 8th 2017, july 8th 2018.

Um....no wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Note that this year we had a Commonwealth Games, so that should RAISE Kenyan stats.

You may be correct about doping controls slowing things down in Kenya however the Commonwealth Games being "this year" should have little to no bearing on the slower times. The Kenyan Commonwealth team was named 6 weeks into the year after a trials at altitude. There's no reason to have any expectation that this set of circumstances would lead to faster overall times from any one nation including Kenya.

Well, partly, but for the 800m, which appears to be slowing the least, two of their sub 1:45.5 athletes ran those times (their best of the season so far) at the Kenyan trials.

So if you took out the Kenyan trials for the Commonwealths, the figures for the 800m are (and I incorrectly put 11 rather than 10 above) ;

2016 : 13

2017 : 12

2018 : 8

SkepticalMan2 wrote:

The only noticable trend there is that 2018 is only 7/12th over...

True but since there's no 10k at Brussels this year, I don't think anyone will run faster

You won't see a sub 27:19 winning time at the European Champs.

you're probaby right. the championship best performance was set in 1982 when Alberto Cova ran 27:41.03 and it hasn't been won under 28:00 since 2002 when José Manuel Martinez (ESP) ran 27:47.65, so a sub-28 time seems unlikely this time around.

as for the contenders, it will almost certainly go to some transplanted African such as that well-known Belgian Soufiane Bouchiki or the highly popular Italian Yemaneberhan Crippa. but, ringers aside, the German Richard Ringer ran a well-judged race to win the European Cup 10km at Parliament Hill in May with 27:36 and since then he has not raced very much other than a 3:48 1500m in Turku, Finland so maybe he is preparing for the Europeans.

the next highest ranked Europeans are, surprisingly, all British, Alex Yee, Andy Vernon and Chris Thompson, who have all achieved the qualifying standard (28:20) and they finished 1st 2nd and 3rd British athlete in the trial race so would seem pretty safe guesses for the team to be selected on 23rd July.

Marc Scott, Ben Connor and Dewi Griffiths have also achieved the qualifying time but only Connor ran the trials where he finished 4th Briton so he's probably hoping one of the other three doesn't want a free trip to Berlin to brighten up his summer.

prediction: 1. Richard Ringer (GER); 2. Alex Yee (GBR); 3. Adel Mechaal (ESP)

cheers.

Fewer track 10Ks now. How does the 5K situation compare?

Ringer ran 13.22 recently. Racing sparingly indeed.

The problem with this kind of stats is that Kenyans are now all over the world (Bahrain, Turkey...)

There are two sub 1.45 guys representing Australia but from Kenya. How do you count these guys.

writing on the wall wrote:

The writing is on the wall: The track 10k is KAPUT!. It is no MORE. It will soon be DROPPED from the Olympics. Track 10k; RIP.

With any luck it will take the worst field events with it as they will now have less airtime available. I say cut the ridiculous TJ and maybe the greek frisbee.

asdgasdfdsf wrote: How does the 5K situation compare?

only 2 Britons have achieved the qualifying standard (13:30), Chris Thompson and Marc Scott. Scott ran the qualifying time at the Portland Track Festival and then easily won the trials race in 13:47, but Thompson has a superior pb of 13:11 from Palo Alto and may prefer his chances at the shorter distance. I don't have any inside information about their plans but would have thought it unlikely they would both want to double.

mention of medal contenders must start with Henrik Ingebrigtsen who ran 13:16 in May and is one of only 3 Europeans under 13:20 so far this year. that Italian guy Yemaneberhan Crippa crops up again and a couple of French imports, Morhad Amdouni and Mahiedine Benabbad are also highly ranked but it seems fairly open so depending on the type of race it turns into someone like Julien Wanders could surprise us all.

prediction: 1. Henrik Ingebrigtsen (NOR); 2. Isaac Kimelli (BEL); 3. Florian Carvalho (FRA)

cheers.

Coevett wrote:

SkepticalMan2 wrote:

The only noticable trend there is that 2018 is only 7/12th over...

Err, no, I gave the figures for up to july 8th 2016, july 8th 2017, july 8th 2018.

...and in addition, the Commonwealth Games were early this year, which skews the fast performances to earlier in the year (making 2018 even worse)

The one change from last year (and prior 20+years) is that there is no 10000m superstar this year, which would have encouraged meet organizers to put up a 10000m.

From the mid 90s, we had Geb/Tergat, then Bekele, then Mo. There was always somebody. When Mo moved on to the road this year, he did not have someone to take the reign.

Cheptegei (WL and silver medalist at WC last year), Tanui (bronze at last year WC. got really slow this year), Karoki (4th at last year WC. no more track for him?)... are certainly not as marketable.

Coevett wrote:

Um....no wrote:

You may be correct about doping controls slowing things down in Kenya however the Commonwealth Games being "this year" should have little to no bearing on the slower times. The Kenyan Commonwealth team was named 6 weeks into the year after a trials at altitude. There's no reason to have any expectation that this set of circumstances would lead to faster overall times from any one nation including Kenya.

Well, partly, but for the 800m, which appears to be slowing the least, two of their sub 1:45.5 athletes ran those times (their best of the season so far) at the Kenyan trials.

So if you took out the Kenyan trials for the Commonwealths, the figures for the 800m are (and I incorrectly put 11 rather than 10 above) ;

2016 : 13

2017 : 12

2018 : 8

Whatever you "said" regarding the 800m matters little since the thread is about the 10,000m. You are free to join that discussion if you wish.