A closer look at EPO-era performances

It turns out that wejo could have run a 2:17 marathon PR with Paula in 2002...but he decided to "jog it home."

He decided to "jog it home" and the opportunity for a 2:17 marathon PR was gone FOREVER.

Was this a smart decision?

No.

Weldon was WRONG AGAIN!!!

It is just a coincidence.

Not sure what the point of this thread is. From following it at the start and occasionally looking back in, it seems to be RekRunner trying to establish that EPO doesn't work but it did however enable Africans to cheat as effectively as the rest of the world. For all the complex and dubious statistics being thrown about regarding performances, any 5 year old could take the merest look at the pattern of best times from the different eras and see that Africans were Epoed up to the max between 1992 and 2004 and, remarkably, there is no evidence whatsoever that American, British, or Oceanic runners were taking EPO at all (if they were, they certainly weren't benefitting from it. Britain, Australia, and New Zealand actually went backwards in the EPO era and are now going forwards again.

Here are the number of runners getting below 3:36 for the 1500 in 1983/2000/2017 in Kenya, Morocco, UK, USA, and Australia/New Zealand per head of population. One thing you guys always neglect to mention is the population growth of Africa. For example, Kenya and Ethiopia have both almost doubled their populations since 2000, when they were at their peak in terms of quantity and quality. For example in Kenya in 2000 16 different men ran under 3:36. Last year, only 10 did so. Given the population increase you would expect over 30 Kenyans now to be running under 3:36 and that's WITHOUT taking into consideration small improvements in tracks (or massive improvements in the case of Monaco), nutrition, training, shoes etc. Really, you should be looking at between 50 and 100 Kenyans now running under 3:36, and instead you just have ten. That's all down to better testing for EPO.

per head of population running under 3:36

Kenya 1983 - 1 in 9 million

Kenya 2000 - 1 in 2 million

Kenya 2017 - 1 in 5 million

Morocco 1983 - 1 in 21 million

Morocco 2000 - 1 in 4 million

Morocco 2017 - 1 in 7 million

Britain 1983 - 1 in 14 million

Britain 2000 - 1 in 30 million

Britain 2017 - 1 in 12 million

USA 1983 - 1 in 117 million

USA 2000 - 1 in 95 million

USA 2017 - 1 in 65 million

Oceania 1983 - 1 in 18 million

Oceania 2000 - 0 in 23 million

Oceania 2017 - 1 in 10 million

Your posts are enough to put a ? smile back on a grieving man's face.

I could be wrong but Kipketer was managed by Kim McDonald, his athletes did ludicrous times between 1996-2000. When he died much of their abilities died too. He really knew how to hold a stop watch. ⌚

Populist Demagogue Iconic Hero wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

Just saw this -- and couldn't agree more.

So now the foundational claim is "Africans are better at running than others, therefore there's no evidence EPO is effective"?

That's brilliant.

Kind of like "Rich people don't bother stealing because they can't spend stolen money," or something.

The weird thing is that rekrunner isn't here trying to sow doubt because he's related to Paula or has a professional interest in the matter. I think he's just one of those strange dudes who hates the way that cheating throws a monkey wrench into a sport he enjoys following, so he tries to rationalize away the effects of doping so he can keep following the sport with the same zeal. I've seen similar approaches by generally smart people in other areas.

For the record I don’t believe that EPO is ineffective.

I believe that the effectiveness and availability of drugs isn’t enough to explain the success of some countries or individual talents. There’s something else. It’s this other thing that interests me more than pharma or genetics.

A prime example would be Usain Bolt. Assuming he cheated, the interesting underlying question for me would be: why is this drugs cheat so much faster than all the other drug cheats? Assuming he’s clean, holy sh*t. How and why? Just throwing accusations around isn’t useful and doesn’t tell us anything about running, which is what I thought we came here for.

Sir, I withdraw.

amateur wrote:

For the record I don’t believe that EPO is ineffective.

I believe that the effectiveness and availability of drugs isn’t enough to explain the success of some countries or individual talents. There’s something else. It’s this other thing that interests me more than pharma or genetics.

It would have to be either superb genetics or PEDs...wouldn't it? ? There's no special high-tech shoes, aerodynamic sportswear, special diet, etc. that would give a significant advantage as just about everyone would have access to any of those things.

Russian 800m specialist & doper Savinova had stated in the ARD recordings that you can't win major competitions without "pharma." So, I guess she's implying that everyone who wins a major competition, at least on the female side, is doped. Now I don't know if I'm buying that - I think superbly talented gifted runners can still win clean. But what about the lesser talented ones? Has PEDs, particularly EPO, put them in a level playing field against the genetic freaks? Recall that a doped up Savinova (EPO & androgens) beat genetic freak Semenya twice in a championship event (2011 WCs & London). So, in this case it's dope 2 - natural talent 0. But then what happens if some of the genetic freaks use PEDs? Do they become unbeatable, i.e. "superhuman?"

As far as I'm concerned it's too convoluted to figure who's doped and who's clean, what's a real performance and what's an illusion, who do you believe and who do you doubt, who's telling the truth and who's pulling a fast one, and so forth.

Hey aduck...how prevelent do you think GW501516 is? Checking the data base I found two positives; one in race walking (female) & the other a mid-d guy from Belarus. Also, is it IGF-1 Ir3 or GHRP-2 considered among the dopers as the "speed peptide?"

its really not that hard to figure out.

bolt was a 10.10-15 guy CLEAN and drops to 9.58-9.70, lets just say on average he got a .45-.50 improvement from PEDs (yeah i know i know they dont work)

so if we take a .45 improvement and add them to peoples PRs you will see what they ran for the most part clean, ready?

mo green 9.79 PR + .45 = 10.24

his hs PR was "He was clocked in 10.2 seconds at 100 meters in high school" this was 1993, 1995 his SB was only 10.19....but dont listen to me PEDs dont work

tim montgomery 9.77PR + .45 =10.22....PR freshman yr of college at JUCO 10.28, with a 9.97 with too much wind

yohan blake 9.69 PR + .45 = 10.14, ran 10.11 as a 17yr old and only a 10.27 as an 18yr old then boom made huge drops after that

so if we can assume that most of the "top" guys ran 10.20 range CLEAN and Bolt was a 10.10-.15 guy CLEAN you can see he is already ..05-.10 FASTER

bolt 9.58 + .10 = 9.68 and what is the 2nd fastest time? 9.69....NOT THAT HARD GUYS (wait wait wait PEDs dont work)

PEDS DONT WORK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BOLT IS THE FASTEST MAN EVER!!!!!!!!! 9.58!!! that is .10 faster than the guys who have taken PEDs, but that is sooooo dumb cause as rekrunner the messiah has shown us DONT WORK!!!!

here is another clean guy that could have made it into the 9.70-80 range for sure if he would have sauced up but he didnt

brendan christian, ran a 10.15 in hs and was built like a distance runner, check his iaaf profile progression page, dude runs between 10.09-10.50 for his career, looks like to me he fell off to 10.40s then down to 10.16, 10.11, 10.09 then back to 10.33

so it looks like he dabbled a bit to drop his .45 to save his career for a few more years. but if he would have sauced back in his hs (18yr-23) range...10.15 - .40 = 9.75, or the .45 = 9.70 basically on par with yohan blake and gay.

like i said take a look he was brojos skinny in hs and running FAST

http://archive.dyestat.com/us/2out/gwi/index.htm

I just agreed that there are other things besides drugs and genetics, that make Africans perform better. Not sure how you got from there to all this, but it looks typical for you to jump to these kind of far-fetched conclusions.

Populist Demagogue Iconic Hero wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

Just saw this -- and couldn't agree more.

So now the foundational claim is "Africans are better at running than others, therefore there's no evidence EPO is effective"?

That's brilliant.

Kind of like "Rich people don't bother stealing because they can't spend stolen money," or something.

The weird thing is that rekrunner isn't here trying to sow doubt because he's related to Paula or has a professional interest in the matter. I think he's just one of those strange dudes who hates the way that cheating throws a monkey wrench into a sport he enjoys following, so he tries to rationalize away the effects of doping so he can keep following the sport with the same zeal. I've seen similar approaches by generally smart people in other areas.

the only jumping im doing rekrunner is jumping up and down with excitement, EPO and PEDS DONT WORK!!!!!!

i dont get it beau, when will these morans get it? you tell them over and over EPO and PEDs dont work. your wife was clean cause PEDs dont work. so even if she took PEDs it would be pointless as they DONT WORK!!!!

come on all you LR'ers, lets all form a circle and hold hands...we will sing kumbaya my lord, touch some tips, giggle like kevin spacey and all in unison "EPO and PEDS dont work, AMEN"

lets all do this for my man crush and messiah rekrunner, love you man!!! do you think or lord and savior renato will marry us? i cant think of anyone else that is worthy of handing you over in matrimony :)

Dubai marathon showes exactly what is still happening with doping ,

beyond obvious, especially since not talking kenya here . reakrunner

and what coming in fully loaded on epo can do , besides what else using .

marathon is still an event if well connected can push epo use near max .

wee got to see the whole doping team involved at end ,

nearly turned into an orgy.........

...

"A prime example would be Usain Bolt. Assuming he cheated, the interesting underlying question for me would be: why is this drugs cheat so much faster than all the other drug cheats? "

...

well not considering some athletes are backed and pushed by certain elite and have near freedom to dope

for bolt the case and the case from the start as a teen ,

he was doping then with the newly introduced speed peptide as see many other younger athletes trying the same path later

but unless allowed and given access to dope near freely with androgens for that power /strength and muscle , endurance

like usain in 2006/2007 wont make the next step up.

he obviously has something most others dont have , the height

more enhancement with igf-1 the taller or longer legged and same again if can use with strong roids .

so the game is rigged ,

as with wayde in 400m or farah . more pushed imperialist athletes .

get access to that nike sauce or undectable/untested epo

obviously not same enhancement possible in tracks longer distances compared to what bolt was enabled to do .

as still rules of game mean have to pass certain tests and many will only risk so much especially if highly tested , like rupp.

In my opinion she didn't train right. She was chasing fast times before the Olympics and by the time she got to Athens she was overtrained. The winning time was 11 minutes slower than her best. Surely withing her reach with a more cautious approach. Wearing that stupid ice vest before the start you could see she was a nervous wreck, no confidence.

What's up with this? wrote:

pariah wrote:

What's up with this? Well, you are trolling in response to a reasonable reply. If you think 'everyone is at it' then, you are a conspiracy hypothesist.

C'mon man....Jama Aden?

Don't know. Never met the guy. Trial by media though, not a reliable way to find out what really happened.

rekrunner, you are arguing with children. What's the point?

pariah wrote:

rekrunner, you are arguing with children. What's the point?

Indeed -- apparently a bunch of 5 year olds.

Coevett wrote:

any 5 year old could take the merest look at the pattern of best times from the different eras and see that Africans were Epoed up to the max

rekrunner wrote:

pariah wrote:

rekrunner, you are arguing with children. What's the point?

Indeed -- apparently a bunch of 5 year olds.

Coevett wrote:

any 5 year old could take the merest look at the pattern of best times from the different eras and see that Africans were Epoed up to the max

No, my statement implied that you don't even have the reasoning powers of a 5 year old.

Like it's so mature to have such a psychological need to believe Africans are superior that you can turn even the obvious fact of African doping on its head to convince yourself that all previous European success was due to doping.

Coevett wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

Indeed -- apparently a bunch of 5 year olds.

No, my statement implied that you don't even have the reasoning powers of a 5 year old.

Like it's so mature to have such a psychological need to believe Africans are superior that you can turn even the obvious fact of African doping on its head to convince yourself that all previous European success was due to doping.

Debating the issue is best done with a cool head. Statistically East Africans are waaaay superior. The doping issue is a kind of prostitution that goes on in sport, with occasional lone experimenters influenced by all the noise.

BTW coevett, how old are you? I'm 55. I believed the nonsense about so called PEDs in the early 90s, but I asked myself lots of awkward questions, that no one wants to answer. I'm many many years ahead of all of you on this. Ask me an intelligent question if you can. But you will have to think long and hard to make it a good one.

And my statement implied that you do.

Coevett wrote:

No, my statement implied that you don't even have the reasoning powers of a 5 year old.