A closer look at EPO-era performances

Men's data:
As you look at the numbers, keep in mind the relative size of the respective populations:
- East Africa (4-5.6%) (1990 and present)
- North Africa (2.9-3.1%)
- 5 continents (83-87%%)

The thing that strikes me as most anomalous, when you look at athletes from "5 continents" -- North and South America, Europe, Russia, Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand -- with a combined population 15-30 times as many people compared to East and North Africans (~3%) -- 1) why there were are so few examples making the cut-off, and 2) why their respective improvements were significantally smaller than their African competitors, during a period spanning decades, when 1) EPO was available worldwide, and largely undetectable, and 2) everybody (up to 57%) from everywhere cheats, and 3) there existed a "game-changing" undetectable drug that would have helped them close the gap, and "level" the playing field.
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Mens 1500m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 3:29.84

Quantity:
Total: 26
East Africa: 16 61.5%
North Africa: 8 30.8%
5 Continents: 2 7.7%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 3:27.52 1.1%
North Africa (Top 5): 3:27.98 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 2): 3:29.30 0.3%
(Best) El G: 3:26.00 1.8%
(Best Spaniard) Fermin Cacho: 3:28.95 0.4%

OBSERVATIONS:
o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved on average by around 1%, with El G at 1.8%
o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved, by about 1/3rd, at 0.3%: Fermin Cacho (0.4%) and Nick Willis (0.2%)
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Mens 3000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 7:32.54

Quantity:
Total: 70 100.0%
East Africa: 49 70.0%
North Africa: 12 17.1%
5 Continents: 9 12.9%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 7:25.20 1.6%
North Africa (Top 5): 7:25.75 1.5%
5 Continents (Top 5): 7:30.39 0.5%
(Best) Daniel Komen 7:20.67 2.6%
(Best Spaniard) Isaac Viciosa 7:29.34 0.7%

OBSERVATIONS:
o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved by around 1.5%
o The best of the rest of the world improved by 1/3rd, at 0.5%, with the best Spaniard at 0.7%
o 3 Spaniards made the cut-off
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Mens 3000m Steeplechase:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 8:05.98

Quantity:
Total: 32 100.0%
East Africa: 25 78.1%
North Africa: 5 15.6%
5 Continents: 2 6.3%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 7:54.61 2.3%
North Africa (Top 5): 8:00.57 1.1%
5 Continents (Top 2): 8:02.70 0.7%
(Best) Brahim Boulami: 7:53.17 2.6%
(Best non-African) Evan Jager: 8:00.45 1.1%

OBSERVATIONS:
o French athletes are Algerian descent
o Almost purely dominated by Kenya, with no Ethiopians
o East Africans improved nearly the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world
o Spain was a non-factor
o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved: Evan Jager (1.1%) and Simon Vroemen (0.2%)
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Mens 5000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 13:02.08

Quantity:
Total: 112 100.0%
East Africa: 91 81.3%
North Africa: 13 11.6%
5 Continents: 8 7.1%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 12:41.96 2.6%
North Africa (Top 5): 12:50.06 1.5%
5 Continents (Top 5): 12:56.09 0.8%
(Best) Bekele: 12:37.35 3.2%
(Best non-African) Baumann: 12:54.70 0.9%

OBSERVATIONS:
o Would expect EPO helps 5000m
o East Africans improved almost the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world
o Spain was not a factor, except Ethiopian Bezabeh
o Baumann would be 8th North African and 39th East African
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Mens 10000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 27:14.77

Quantity:
Total: 111 100.0%
East Africa: 101 91.0%
North Africa: 5 4.5%
5 Continents: 5 4.5%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 26:25.78 3.0%
North Africa (Top 5): 26:59.98 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 5): 27:03.68 0.7%
(Best) Bekele: 26:17.53 3.5%
(Best non-African) Rupp: 26:44.36 1.9%
(Best Spaniard) Fabián Roncero: 27:14.44 0.0%

OBSERVATIONS:
o Only 4 non-East Africans have run sub-27:00 (two after 2010)
o 54 (93.1%) East Africans have run sub-27:00
o Next 53? 47 East African, 3 North African, and 3 from the rest of World
o Only 10 non-East Africans total
o Spain is almost completely non-factor
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Marathon:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 2:07:11

Quantity:
Total: 201 100.0%
East Africa: 183 91.0%
North Africa: 6 3.0%
5 Continents: 12 6.0%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 2:03:06 3.2%
North Africa (Top 5): 2:06:02 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 5): 2:06:21 0.7%
Kimetto: 2:02:57 3.3%
Ryan Hall (Boston): 2:04:58 1.7%
Jaouad Gharib: 2:05:27 1.4%
Ronaldo de Costa: 2:06:05 0.9%
Julio Rey: 2:06:52 0.3%

OBSERVATIONS:
o East Africans improved more than the triple of both North Africans, and the rest of the world
o No "top" marathons made the cutoff between 1988 and 1995
o 100 quality performances up to Geb's first world record (Sep. 2007)
o 447 quality performances after (Sep. 2007)
o JPN (3)and RSA (3)
o Only 1 Spaniard, Julio Rey
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GENERAL OBSERVATIONS for the men:
o Most events have East Africans at 70-90%, improving by 3%
o Where was the rest of the world during the decades of the EPO era? Some 5-10% of "5 continents" improved, by about 1% or less
o Despite the large number of EPO busts, Spain doesn't appear to be a large asset for the "5 continents" or tough competitors against the Africans

Women's data:
For the women, their several important differences compared to the men.

o For the 1500m, times from the 1980's were quite strong, and rarely bettered since. This is inline with known steroid usage of the 1980's in women.
o For the longer events, it is clear that the events were not mature or deep in the 1980s.
o Except for 1 or 2 athletes, Moroccan and North African women did not factor at all in the analysis.
o Like the men, East African women started to dominate, but much later.
o These are likely due to cultural reasons discouraging women from competing, not only in Africa, but before the 1980s, in all parts of the world.
o As there was a lack of maturity, I had to look further down the list to get a pre-1990 "Top 5" average, and then we get more women making the cut-off, and improving by more than the men. When we chose a different "pre-EPO" cutoff, just comparing to Ingrid Kristiansen, we get numbers that look similar to the men.
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Womens 1500m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 3:54.66

Quantity:
Total: 8
East Africa: 1 12.5%
China: 7 87.5%
5 Continents: 0 0.0%

Quality:
Genzebe Dibaba: 3:50.07 2.0%
China (Top 5): 3:51.72 1.3%
5 Continents: 0:00.00 0.0%
Laura Muir: 3:55.22 -0.2%

OBSERVATIONS:
o Times from the 80's are STRONG
o Only CHINESE women from two meets, in Beijing and Shanghai China, and Genzebe
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Womens 3000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 8:25.78

Quantity:
Total: 19
East Africa: 8 42.1%
China: 5 26.3%
5 Continents: 6 31.6%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 8:22.16 0.7%
China (Top 5): 8:15.28 2.1%
5 Continents (Top 5): 8:22.78 0.6%
Wang Junxia: 8:06.11 3.9%
Helen Obiri: 8:20.68 1.0%

OBSERVATIONS:
o CHINESE from one meet, 1993 Beijing, and then KENYA
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Womens 5000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 14:50.85

Quantity:
Total 117
East Africa: 71 60.7%
China: 10 8.5%
5 Continents: 36 30.8%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 14:14.08 4.1%
China (Top 5): 14:34.12 1.9%
5 Continents (Top 5): 14:29.15 2.4%
Ingrid Kristiansen 14:37.33 1.5%

OBSERVATIONS:
o 80s times lack depth (Ingrid Kristiansen; Zola Budd)
o 44 women bettered Ingrid Kristiansen
o Outside Shanghai 1997 (4x), CHINA was not a factor
o Relative to Ingrid Kristiansen, EA and 5 Continents quality like the men
o Some Turkish athletes are Ethiopian or Kenyan
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Womens 10000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 30:55.74

Quantity:
Total: 72 100.0%
East Africa: 40 55.6%
China: 9 12.5%
5 Continents: 23 31.9%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 29:39.97 4.1%
China (Top 5): 30:10.96 2.4%
5 Continents (Top 5): 30:16.49 2.1%
Wang Junxia: 29:31.78 4.5%
Ingrid Kristiansen: 30:13.74 2.3%

OBSERVATIONS:
o 80s times lack depth (Only Ingrid Kristiansen)
o 18 women ran better than Ingrid Kristiansen
o Outside Wang Junxia, CHINA was not a factor
o Relative to Ingrid Kristiansen, EA and 5 Continents quality like the men
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Women's Marathon:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 2:22:56

Quantity:
Total 95 100.0%
East Africa 59 62.1%
China 5 5.3%
5 Continents 31 32.6%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 2:18:20 3.2%
China (Top 5): 2:21:02 1.3%
5 Continents (Top 5): 2:18:22 3.2%
Ingrid Kristiansen: 2:21:06 1.3%
Paula Radcliffe: 2:15:25 5.3%
Catherine N'dereba: 2:18:47 2.9%

OBSERVATIONS:
o 80s times lack depth (Ingrid Kristiansen; Joan Benoit)
o 42 women ran better than Ingrid Kristiansen
o CHINA does not factor
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GENERAL OBSERVATIONS for the women:
o For the 1500m, the 1980s steroids usage looks difficult to beat with EPO
o Otherwise women's times in 1980 were not deep
o Outside of two meets, 1993 Beijing, and 1997 Shanghai, China were not a big factor

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rekrunner wrote:

I wanted to address repeated criticisms that, despite my own appeals to "statistical analysis of real performances", I have never shown any data based on real performances.

How often do we see these kind of EPO related claims:
- After the availability of synthetic EPO, distance running world records dropped dramatically.
- EPO can have a large effect for "high-responders" on individual performance, up to 3-6%, or more.
- EPO was widely used, up to 57% according to recent surveys.
- Notably, Morocco and Spain are among the best examples of EPO-abuse.

If these claims are accurate, we should be able to observe the large effect from EPO on the best performances, pre-1990, versus post-1990. It may not be the 3-6% individual improvement, but nevertheless, we should be able to see some sort of "EPO footprint", showing how the "game changed", resulting from a drug often described as a "game-changer".

With that in mind, I decided to make simple, easy to understand, comparisons of pre-EPO performances to post-EPO performances, to better understand how performances have changed, where performances have changed, and curiously, where performances have not changed as much.

I thought it would be interesting to break down the performances by ethnic heritage. Why?
- If EPO works in East Africans the same as it works "on everyone else", it is interesting to break out East Africa separately, and observe any "sameness".
- Morocco and Spain are considered among the best examples of abusers and beneficiaries of EPO, so it also makes sense to look at these populations separately.
We should also be able to see evidence of "works the same on everyone" improvements, in East Africans, in North Africans, featuring the EPO-doped Moroccans, and in the rest of the world, featuring the EPO-doped Spain.

Method:
All of the raw data comes from listings at "www.alltime-athletics.com" as of 15 Jan 2018, including performances that were annulled due to doping.
I counted "performers" and not "performances". If an athlete has multiple performances, I count only the best one.
I chose the cut-off as the average of the top-5 performers before 1 Jan 1990, as the massive drop in times started after 1990.

From this cut-off, I calculated two simple measures:
1) Quantity: A simple count of how many athletes performed better than the pre-1990 top-5 average.
2) Quality: Improvement, as a percentage of the pre-1990 cut-off, of the average of the post-1990 top-5 performers, if 5 existed, or the average of all of them if less than 5 existed.

For the men, I analyzed six events: 1500m, 3000m, 3000m steeple, 5000m, 10000m, and marathon.
In addition to global improvements, I repeated the same measures for specific ethnic sub-groups.
I collected separate numbers for 1) East Africans, 2) North Africans, and then 3) "everyone else", with special mention of Spanish athletes.
NOTE: Africans imported to other countries were counted as East Africans or North Africans, depending on their heritage, and not citizenship.
NOTE: South Africans did not factor much, but when they did, they are counted as "5 continents".
For the women, I analyzed five events: 1500m, 3000m, 5000m, 10000m, and marathon.
I collected separate numbers for 1) East Africans, 2) Chinese, and then 3) "everyone else". Moroccans and North Africans did not seem to be a factor for the women. Russia could also be of interest, but I did not break them out.

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Great analysis Rekrunner, which shows, in my eyes at least, that there was a big impact on standards post 1990 from EPO.
And the fact that the % improvement gets greater the longer the distance, reinforces that further.

3 things that sprung to mind are:

1) When stating there has been a 1.1% improvement in the 1500m for the top 5 East African men post 1990, compared to the pre 1990 top 5 average, isn't it relevant that of the 5 men in that pre 1990 group, 2 were British? Wouldn't it be even more telling if you used the average of the top 5 East African performers pre 1990, when looking at the % improvement in that group post EPO? In which case I think you'll see an ever bigger % improvement.

2) Despite the nonsense spouted by others on here, I do think that there has been a slight improvement in the general speed of tracks since 1990, although how much that is I don't know.

3) Have you tried doing the same analysis with bigger sample groups? Probably not yet as I can imagine its very time consuming, but maybe you could repeat for the top 10 performers?

Cheers

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rekrunner wrote:

I wanted to address repeated criticisms that, despite my own appeals to "statistical analysis of real performances", I have never shown any data based on real performances.

How often do we see these kind of EPO related claims:
- After the availability of synthetic EPO, distance running world records dropped dramatically.
- EPO can have a large effect for "high-responders" on individual performance, up to 3-6%, or more.
- EPO was widely used, up to 57% according to recent surveys.
- Notably, Morocco and Spain are among the best examples of EPO-abuse.

If these claims are accurate, we should be able to observe the large effect from EPO on the best performances, pre-1990, versus post-1990. It may not be the 3-6% individual improvement, but nevertheless, we should be able to see some sort of "EPO footprint", showing how the "game changed", resulting from a drug often described as a "game-changer".

With that in mind, I decided to make simple, easy to understand, comparisons of pre-EPO performances to post-EPO performances, to better understand how performances have changed, where performances have changed, and curiously, where performances have not changed as much.

I thought it would be interesting to break down the performances by ethnic heritage. Why?
- If EPO works in East Africans the same as it works "on everyone else", it is interesting to break out East Africa separately, and observe any "sameness".
- Morocco and Spain are considered among the best examples of abusers and beneficiaries of EPO, so it also makes sense to look at these populations separately.
We should also be able to see evidence of "works the same on everyone" improvements, in East Africans, in North Africans, featuring the EPO-doped Moroccans, and in the rest of the world, featuring the EPO-doped Spain.

Method:
All of the raw data comes from listings at "www.alltime-athletics.com" as of 15 Jan 2018, including performances that were annulled due to doping.
I counted "performers" and not "performances". If an athlete has multiple performances, I count only the best one.
I chose the cut-off as the average of the top-5 performers before 1 Jan 1990, as the massive drop in times started after 1990.

From this cut-off, I calculated two simple measures:
1) Quantity: A simple count of how many athletes performed better than the pre-1990 top-5 average.
2) Quality: Improvement, as a percentage of the pre-1990 cut-off, of the average of the post-1990 top-5 performers, if 5 existed, or the average of all of them if less than 5 existed.

For the men, I analyzed six events: 1500m, 3000m, 3000m steeple, 5000m, 10000m, and marathon.
In addition to global improvements, I repeated the same measures for specific ethnic sub-groups.
I collected separate numbers for 1) East Africans, 2) North Africans, and then 3) "everyone else", with special mention of Spanish athletes.
NOTE: Africans imported to other countries were counted as East Africans or North Africans, depending on their heritage, and not citizenship.
NOTE: South Africans did not factor much, but when they did, they are counted as "5 continents".
For the women, I analyzed five events: 1500m, 3000m, 5000m, 10000m, and marathon.
I collected separate numbers for 1) East Africans, 2) Chinese, and then 3) "everyone else". Moroccans and North Africans did not seem to be a factor for the women. Russia could also be of interest, but I did not break them out.

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Inquiry minds want to know wrote:
Why did you leave out the 800 for both men & women? Isn't the 800 an endurance event? Last time I checked it's not listed as a sprint. Additionally, why did you also leave out the women's steeplechase? There's been some top performing women in that event sanctioned for hematological anomalies.

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Deanouk wrote:
Great analysis Rekrunner, which shows, in my eyes at least, that there was a big impact on standards post 1990 from EPO.
And the fact that the % improvement gets greater the longer the distance, reinforces that further.

3 things that sprung to mind are:

1) When stating there has been a 1.1% improvement in the 1500m for the top 5 East African men post 1990, compared to the pre 1990 top 5 average, isn't it relevant that of the 5 men in that pre 1990 group, 2 were British? Wouldn't it be even more telling if you used the average of the top 5 East African performers pre 1990, when looking at the % improvement in that group post EPO? In which case I think you'll see an ever bigger % improvement.

2) Despite the nonsense spouted by others on here, I do think that there has been a slight improvement in the general speed of tracks since 1990, although how much that is I don't know.

3) Have you tried doing the same analysis with bigger sample groups? Probably not yet as I can imagine its very time consuming, but maybe you could repeat for the top 10 performers?

Cheers

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One man, 52 weekends, 52 marathons wrote:
Is there a Cliff's Notes version ?

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I think we need to lobby for a spreadsheet feature on the letsrun message boards.

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3hr-marathoner wrote:

I think we need to lobby for a spreadsheet feature on the letsrun message boards.

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rekrunner wrote:
Why so few, by so little, from five continents over almost three decades?

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There a risk and reward difference that is often overlooked. In poor African countries, the cost of living is much, much lower than in Europe and Americas. Winning races can mean life changing money in Africa. This is not the case in 1st world countries where winning $100k would be a good year, but by no means set someone up for life. The 1st world equivalent of $100k in Africa might be close to $2M. There is also a stigma about cheating in 1st world countries that may not be as strong in 3rd world countries. Once an American is caught for cheating, they are branded for life and will always have a hard time shaking that image no matter what their job later in life. And the1st world person will have to work later, unlike the 2nd/3rd world runner.

In other words: There is a greater incentive to cheat when they money has life changing consequences.

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rekrunner wrote:

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One man, 52 weekends, 52 marathons wrote:
Is there a Cliff's Notes version ?

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Quantity of the men's events respectively:
- how many non-Africans beat the "1980s cutoff": 2, 9, 2, 8, 5, 12
- how many North-Africans beat the "1980s cutoff": 8, 12, 5, 13, 5, 6
- how many East-Africans beat the "1980s cutoff": 16, 49, 25, 91, 101, 183
Quality of the men's events respectively:
- the best 5 non-Africans "progressed": 0.3%, 0.5%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.7%
- the best 5 North-Africans "progressed": 0.9%, 1.5%, 1.1%, 1.5%, 0.9%, 0.9%
- the best 5 East-Africans "progressed": 1.1%, 1.6%, 2.3%, 2.6%, 3.0%, 3.2%
Why so few, by so little, from five continents over almost three decades?

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Well, maybe depth in Europe declined, but then again, I was only looking "5-deep", over a period spanning 28 years, at a group representing all nations from five continents, or about 85% of the population, versus groups of about 6% and 3%.
I'm told that Spain is one of the best examples of EPO abuse, yet within their own group of "non-African 5 continents" Spanish performances hardly stood out, let alone compared to the Africans.
I'm not sure what you count as the end of the EPO-era, but I also notice that these European records are all currently set by athletes of East African or North African descent, with the recent exception of Moen in the marathon, and old ones like Cram in the mile and 2000m.

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sato wrote:

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rekrunner wrote:
Why so few, by so little, from five continents over almost three decades?

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Huge decline in serious participation is the most likely answer for Europe at least. Despite that, every single European record from 1500m to Marathon was set during the EPO era. The depth in European distance running however did decline in the 1990s and 2000s.

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If you want to know what "the biggest effect rekrunner is seeing", here is what I said at the top:

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The thing that strikes me as most anomalous, when you look at athletes from "5 continents"...
1) why there were are so few examples making the cut-off, and
2) why their respective improvements were significantally smaller
during a period spanning decades, when ... there existed a "game-changing" undetectable drug that would have helped them close the gap, and "level" the playing field.

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3hr_marathoner wrote:
The most striking set of numbers is:
# East-African males better than the 80's cutoffs: 16, 49, 25, 91, 101, 183
# non-African males better than the '80s cutoffs: 2, 9, 2, 8, 5, 12
So the biggest effect rekrunner is seeing that of the emerging depth of East-African talent in men's distance running which happens to coincide with the beginning of the EPO era. I doubt that any statistical method can separate the effects of these two factors.

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wow, PAULA RADCLIFFE WAS DOPED TO THE GILLS!!

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rekrunner wrote:

Well, maybe depth in Europe declined, but then again, I was only looking "5-deep", over a period spanning 28 years, at a group representing all nations from five continents, or about 85% of the population, versus groups of about 6% and 3%.
I'm told that Spain is one of the best examples of EPO abuse, yet within their own group of "non-African 5 continents" Spanish performances hardly stood out, let alone compared to the Africans.
I'm not sure what you count as the end of the EPO-era, but I also notice that these European records are all currently set by athletes of East African or North African descent, with the recent exception of Moen in the marathon, and old ones like Cram in the mile and 2000m.

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sato wrote:

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rekrunner wrote:
Why so few, by so little, from five continents over almost three decades?

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Huge decline in serious participation is the most likely answer for Europe at least. Despite that, every single European record from 1500m to Marathon was set during the EPO era. The depth in European distance running however did decline in the 1990s and 2000s.

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rekrunner wrote:

I thought my choice of 11 different events, from the 1500m to the marathon, men and women, would be representative enough.
Nevertheless I gave the exact "method" I used, so everyone can feel free to confirm my numbers, or evaluate other events.
Generally, I was afraid that the picture with EPO in the 800m is not so clear because of the bigger role steroids might play.
At quick glance, the men's 800m would have about 5 athletes (all East African from 4 countries) meeting the cutoff (around 1:42.3), progressing maybe 0.5%, with only two athletes beating Seb Coe's 1981 world record.
In the women's 800m, 5 of the top 6 times are pre-EPO, in the 1980's. The only post-1990 result would be one performance from Pamela Jelimo.
Either way, EPO doesn't appear to have made much impact for the 800m since 1990.
For the women's 3000m steeple, I don't find any results before 1996, so can't generate a pre-1990 cutoff.

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Inquiry minds want to know wrote:

Why did you leave out the 800 for both men & women? Isn't the 800 an endurance event? Last time I checked it's not listed as a sprint. Additionally, why did you also leave out the women's steeplechase? There's been some top performing women in that event sanctioned for hematological anomalies.

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The Overexplainer wrote:

This is a clown question. The answer should be obvious. The 800m is not an endurance event and does not benefit proportionally the same from EPO as say the 1500m or 3000m.

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The Overexplainer wrote:

BTW, it is "Inquiring" minds want to know. Two nouns together makes no sense.

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