If Biwott is anywhere near his NYC 2015/London 2016 fitness then he's the overwhelming favorite. But I haven't seen anything to suggest that's the case.
I'd say Kirui has a good chance to repeat. Showed last year he can close very well and seems to have maintained his fitness this year.
Rupp should be in the mix but I don't see him winning. It will probably be like Boston where he's up there with a couple of miles to go but one or two guys will run away from him. Should be good enough for top 3.
Lelisa had a good 2016 but has been inconsistent so far this year. He's run good halfs but ran terrible at the London Marathon. Might be top 3 but I don't see him winning.
Kimetto will not be a factor. Top 5 would be a good comeback for him.
Tadese is a wildcard. Very accomplished 10K and half runner, maybe he finally gets it right this time. Could be anywhere from 1st to DNF.
One of the other lesser known 2:05/2:06 guys might sneak onto the podium, but I doubt the winner will come from that group.
My top 3: