The USMNT is not a good team. Not in the world. Not in the qualifying region, which is a weak region. The US could not qualify in South America or Europe.
The USMNT is clearly well behind Mexico and Costa Rica. Honduras quite simply had the US beat and outplayed them despite the tie, big change from when the US won 6-0. In this cycle Panama has beat Honduras, tied Mexico, tied the US, tied Honduras, and tied Costa Rica. Panama's loss to Mexico this September was close and saved the US.
Panama gets the US in Orlando and then Costa Rica in Panama - after Costa Rica will have clinched a top 3 slot likely. It is not unlikely that Panama beats Costa Rica, in which case the US likely beats Trinidad. So it comes down to the US Panama game result and goal differential. Basically the US needs to beat Panama, then beat Trinidad and they are in. OR tie Panama and hope for a Panama loss or tie v. Costa Rica. Lose to Panama and they are almost statistically out and rely on the 4th place play in game.
Based on the way the US plays: low scoring slugfests, I would not guarantee any outcome v. Australia or Syria.
US just has to qualify now and then become a good team later before 2018.