This is a really, really tortured post with some very strange logic.Expected distributions come from formulas and equations, not "fundamental notions." Discussing expected distributions in terms of "fundamental notions" is just an attempt to try to make this sound scientific without any real substance.In any case, distributions and the equations and formulas which define them don't really tell you a whole lot about the tails. Tails tend to be a bit idiosyncratic, especially when you are talking about one data point at the far end of the distribution. At this point, whatever you think the tail should or shouldn't be, the distribution is what it is. The existence of a single outlier doesn't tell us anything at all about whether EPO works or doesn't work.Anyway, back to the original post...If, as it appears, jemima sumgong took EPO and improved her marathon time, that is a piece of evidence that tends to support the thesis that EPO works to improve marathon performance. The fact that she is slower than Paula is not a counter point to that piece of evidence.