Renato Canova wrote:
In all this analysis, there is no consideration for the most important point : the individual talent.
I was in Kingston when, in 2002, he won World Junior Championships when not yet 16 years old, against athletes 3 years older than him.
He ran 48"28 in 400m without training, when was 14 years and 8 months old, ran 45"35 with very little training when was 16 years and 8 months old, and always was the best in 200m and 400m at young age.
When I saw him in Kingston, I immediately said "this guy will be the next WR holder of 200m and 400m", because his talent was absolutely different from any other athlete I saw in my long athletic life.
Maybe doped or not, but "logically" are the other sprinters who need some doping, for running only 0.20 slower than him in 100m, and 0.40 slower in 200m.
But some kids do physically mature too early. Bolt was running very, very, in fact extremely fast at a young age. But I have seen this in teenagers numerous times, I have seen 15 year old white kids run 47s for 400m in a championship final, but only ran faster than this once as an adult. I have seen a 16 year old girl run 1:17 for the half marathon without serious training (40kms per week for 1500m training) only to quit about a year later. Heck a lad at my old high school did 8 min flat for 3k @ 16. Most Polynesians also run their fastest at about 16 but then get too muscular to run any faster. My defense of Bolt for years was, "but he was fast at 16" but when I learned that he was visiting that dodgy German doctor from 16 or earlier I changed my mind. His gains between 2007 and 2008 over 100m were to good to be true and he is not a natural 100m runner, 400m is perhaps his most physically suited event, until he put on all that muscle.