Marathon prediction

Those are good workouts. Especially that 20 miler.

But what kind of work have you done at MP pace? Have you done much longer, consistent runs at 6:30 pace or just under? Those would give us a better indication of your chances.

Also, NYC is tough. I'm not sure a lot of people PR there. Especially if they are going after some bigger goals.

HMI wrote:

I am a mid 40 guy who has some running history but have not been serious running for 4-5 years. I picked up running back about 9 month ago.

Now, I am preparing for NYC marathon and has been running 60-70 miles per week. The best long run I have done (in 70+ degree texas weather) is a 20 miler averaging 6'45" with 2 30 seconds water stop. My 2x3mile pace now is 6'15". With 6 more weeks of training, is 2:50 a realistic goal?

If those are examples of some workouts that you've done, then maybe (25 to 40% chance).

If those are your best workouts, and you basically raced them, then no way.

Be very careful with NYC - my advice is run at a pace that feels pedestrian for the first 16 miles and if you feel good after that pick it up. Be of the mindset not to pass anyone that is in your corral the first half of the race- it will eat you up and spit you out in Central Park if you are not mindful, especially it being your first marathon

This is not enough information on which to base a reasonable prediction. The 20 miler really doesn't tell us much - it was probably a bit faster than your easy distance pace and slower than marathon goal pace; it really doesn't fit particularly well into any category that could be used to give a prediction.

The 2 x 3 mile workout gives a little more meat to chew on. Presumably that workout was done at your tempo pace. If you were shooting to run 2:50, I would expect your tempo pace to be maybe a little faster than that - just under 6:10 pace. That being said, running in the Texas heat definitely has to be taken into account. My tempo efforts are often 5-10 seconds per mile slower than most would expect given my race fitness level because of the heat and humidity that I train in.

So if I had to base my guess on just that one workout and your weekly mileage totals, I would say that this is a reasonable goal, but my gut tells me that it will be a real challenge for you.

Have you done any marathon paced runs?

Have you run any other races?

Can you confirm that the 3 mile repeats were done at what you perceive to be tempo pace?

Have you done other long tempo workouts?

The long run is my best so far (partly due to the summer temp. in Texas). But, for the tempo workout, I have been doing that for several weeks. This morning, I did a 8 mile tempo run on somewhat tired legs averaging 6'33" - temp. was 72F with 65% humidity.

My other workouts are 6x1mile average 6'07" with 1 minute jog in between. 6x1200 average 4'17" with 2 min. walking rec.

Not sure what else I should of doing at this stage - I am kind of following Hanson's program, but with the temp. I have not done much MP during long run - maybe 5-6 out of 18-20 miler each week.

Hmm.. I think you have a shot, but given your age and lack of consistent base, I wouldn't put you at better than 25-33% chance. You could start off at 6:50 pace and see how it goes. I wouldn't ruin a good sub-3 run just to hit a time that's unlikely.

OK, to answer your question:

Yes, I do a MP run 6-8 miles once a week, at about 6'35" per mile pace (consider the heat and humidity).

I did a half marathon in March 1:23 - averaging 45 MPW at the time. 10K in April 37'52"

Yes, the 2x3 mile repeat is definitely at tempo pace, as the last mile is the fastest.

Other than those, the only long workout I did is 6x1mile, average 6'7" with 1 min. recovery in between.

Hope that helps a bit.

Thanks man.

I thought I will be able to do that, but with the heat and humidity in Texas and only 6 weeks to go, I am doubting myself a bit now. I will keep on training and hope will hit that target.

I think that your goal is a reasonable one. My biggest concerns are that you could have tough weather in NYC (I ran it in 2014 and the weather made it impossible to run for my goal time) and the course is tough.

I would also really like to see you get in one longer mp run - at least 10 miles, preferably 12 or 13. Ideally, you would find a half marathon 2-3 weeks out from race day and run that at mp pace.

Another good indicator would be to see if you can complete a workout like this:

2-3 miles easy to warm up;

4 miles at tempo pace;

8 miles easy;

3-4 miles at tempo pace;

2 miles easy pace to cool down.

Your tempo efforts are pretty much right where they should be relative to a 2:50 if you take the weather into account.

That half marathon time is a little slow, but it seems like your workload has increased enough to offset that.

Good luck and report back!

Smoove wrote:

Another good indicator would be to see if you can complete a workout like this:

2-3 miles easy to warm up;

4 miles at tempo pace;

8 miles easy;

3-4 miles at tempo pace;

2 miles easy pace to cool down.

Good luck and report back!

OK, I will do that this Saturday, as I plan to do a 18-20 miler any way. tempo pace I would assume 6'20" (consider 70F, should equal 6'5-10" in 40F), with easy at 7' pace.

Will report back later.

Good luck. That tempo pace sounds about right. Take the easy distance part as slow as you. We'd to. The key is getting your head and body to agree to the second tempo effort.

OK, here is what happened today...

Due to unforeseen schedule conflict, had to get up at 5AM (Went to bed after mid-night) to do the 20 miler.

Weather was: 78F with 85% humidity - just what I wanted.

WU 4 miles, feel legs are dead

3 mile tempo only managed 6'33"

easy 11

2 mile tempo 6'48"

Overall pace is 7'17"

Not a good WO - although a OK long run - 20 miles.

Will run Chicago marathon in 2 weeks, so no chance to fit in another long run like this. Hope to get 3 - 305 in Chicago (no taper).

Don't beat yourself up. The taper can work miracles. Last year, I intended to use a half marathon to get my last MP run in. Supposed to be 13.1 at MP. Ended up at 1:15 high running full race fort towards the end. 2-3 weeks later I ran 2:30:xx at Chicago on a modestly warm day. Weather and taper made that much of a difference.

Today, I did a 12 mile MP / long tempo run. 1 mile warm up, 12 mile MP average 6'34" on gravel trail - had a water break about 40 sec. in the middle. Not sure if that gives any information to help predict the possibility to run sub 2:50 in 5 weeks.

This Tuesday, I did a track workout, 8x1K average 3'28" with 2min recovery in between.

That sounds better than the previous weekends workout. Keep up the work. You've got a few more weeks for solid training and then the taper. Live smoove said, the taper can make a huge difference.

So, when you say better, is this workout a better (more relative) fitness indicator or it shows that I am in better shape?

Will add more intensity in the next 5-6 weeks (lower overall volume due to taper). Hope that will bring up the game.

Wait.. What? NYC is your goal race but you are running Chicago too? And you just started running again only 9 months ago? Even if treated as a 26 mile long run, this is not a good idea. It will screw up your peaking, sharpening, and taper. The chances are too good that you will be pretty well spent by Nov. 6th and not come anywhere near 2:50, especially as already noted, NY is a hilly race. I'd adjust expectations to 3 hours flat, and take Chicago super easy, although this is far easier said than done. It's too easy to get sucked up into the race day environment and actually race it.

Well, what i meant by saying I started running 9 month ago is.. I restarted serious training again 9 month ago. I have been running since high school as 400/800 runner and ran 6 marathons and about 50 half before.

PR 5K 16‘32“， half 1:18, marathon 2:48.

Before restart, I was running about 20-25MPW, about 7'30" pace. So, I have an almost non-stopped running background for the past 30+ years.

Chicago will be treated as a training long run - definitely not a race. Will taper for 2 days before.

I know it still make NYC harder, but, it is something happened in the past 3 weeks that I do not have an excuse to not running.

HMI wrote:

So, when you say better, is this workout a better (more relative) fitness indicator or it shows that I am in better shape?

Will add more intensity in the next 5-6 weeks (lower overall volume due to taper). Hope that will bring up the game.

I think it is better a couple of ways. Last week it sounded like you were dragging butt through a mediocre workout. You said your legs were dead, and then when you revisited the second tempo set, you couldn't get all that close to the times of the first tempo set.

This weekend sounded like it was an easier effort, and you did 12 miles at basically the same pace as the first 3 mile tempo from last weekend.

Sure, last weekends run was a lot longer, but this weekends workout had more quality, and again, more done at what appears to be less effort. Which is a good thing.

Of course, I could be reading more into your descriptions then you meant.