My roommate bought a Powerball ticket with these numbers: 1,2,3,4,5,6 (PB). I told him he was an idiot.

Anyone who plays it at all is an idiot.

Why on earth did he shoot himself in the foot? Was he a registered gun owner? I don't see what the gun shot wound has to do with his Powerball ticket purchase.

All I am saying is give peace a chance.

Actually, he is an idiot.

While those #'s have just as good a chance of winning as any others, he can probably assure himself of having to share the prize with dozens of others who pick them.

Mojo Jerkin wrote:

Actually, he is an idiot.

While those #'s have just as good a chance of winning as any others, he can probably assure himself of having to share the prize with dozens of others who pick them.

Why is sharing the winnings with others better than picking other numbers and not winning?

Yes, he is an idiot. Here are your best Powerball strategies, ranked from worst to best.

1. Pick your own numbers choosing a pattern (many other people will have similar numbers and you'll split the pot)

2. Pick a random number. You'll be less likely to split the pot this way.

3. Pick your own number, avoiding patterns. You'll be even less likely to split the pot.

4. Don't play (the odds are in your favor when the jackpot is high, but this neglects your stakes. You'd need a stake of hundreds of millions or more to make the strategy of "only play when the odds are in your favor" work).

The numbers don't matter. Do you think the ping pong balls know what image is printed on them? 1-2-3-4-5-6 is only meaningful to you and me when we think of the number line. What if you printed pictures of dogs on the ping pong balls instead of numbers, and you had to pick six dogs instead of six numbers? "Oh, you picked Great Dane/German Shephard/Chihuahua/Golden Retriever/Pit bull/Poodle ? Why didn't you pick six random dogs?"

As one person said, though, picking 1-2-3-4-5-6 is stupid because lots of people pick those numbers, so if you win you'll be sharing the prize. And most people pick the numbers 31 and lower because those correspond to birthdays.

Ohslay on the uptakeay wrote:

Yes, he is an idiot. Here are your best Powerball strategies, ranked from worst to best.

1. Pick your own numbers choosing a pattern (many other people will have similar numbers and you'll split the pot)

2. Pick a random number. You'll be less likely to split the pot this way.

3. Pick your own number, avoiding patterns. You'll be even less likely to split the pot.

4. Don't play (the odds are in your favor when the jackpot is high, but this neglects your stakes. You'd need a stake of hundreds of millions or more to make the strategy of "only play when the odds are in your favor" work).

regarding #4, from a strictly mathematical sense, it of course does make sense to play with the current pot.

And from a "real-world" sense, if you could get ahold of $600 million, you could then pick every single combination and be guaranteed of winning. The odds are heavily in your favor that 0 or 1 other winning ticket will be out there. In either case, you come out ahead. This only became true with the $1.3 billion, it wasn't true for the last draw that was under a billion, then you would have had to be the only winner.

Of coure, this is predicated on having the money outright, and you are basically turning your 600 million into a 20 year investment, where you get back installments with interest over the course of those 20 years. Unless you were the only winner, you would be better off just investing that money traditionally.

Playing 1-2-3-4-5-6 is a great play since most people think others are playing those number and therefore do not play them. He may be the single winner.

pilnerisdt wrote:

Mojo Jerkin wrote:

Actually, he is an idiot.

While those #'s have just as good a chance of winning as any others, he can probably assure himself of having to share the prize with dozens of others who pick them.

Why is sharing the winnings with others better than picking other numbers and not winning?

Exactly. If those are the winning numbers, and they are just as likely as any other set of numbers, then those were the best numbers to pick regardless of how many people picked them.

elephino wrote:

pilnerisdt wrote:

Why is sharing the winnings with others better than picking other numbers and not winning?

Exactly. If those are the winning numbers, and they are just as likely as any other set of numbers, then those were the best numbers to pick regardless of how many people picked them.

What don't you guys get about this?

sdfsdfsdfsdfsdf wrote:

Ohslay on the uptakeay wrote:

Yes, he is an idiot. Here are your best Powerball strategies, ranked from worst to best.

1. Pick your own numbers choosing a pattern (many other people will have similar numbers and you'll split the pot)

2. Pick a random number. You'll be less likely to split the pot this way.

3. Pick your own number, avoiding patterns. You'll be even less likely to split the pot.

4. Don't play (the odds are in your favor when the jackpot is high, but this neglects your stakes. You'd need a stake of hundreds of millions or more to make the strategy of "only play when the odds are in your favor" work).

regarding #4, from a strictly mathematical sense, it of course does make sense to play with the current pot.

.

No it doesn't. You're looking at Expected Value but neglecting your bankroll and "Risk of Ruin." This is what does in many card-counters even when the odds are in their favor.

Suppose you have a 1% chance of winning $200. A ticket costs $1 and you only have enough of a stake to buy one ticket. Then you have a 99% risk of ruin (losing your entire stakes) and 1% chance of winning $2. What matters is not expected payout, but avoiding the risk of ruin.

If you want a 50% risk of ruin then you'd have to buy 69 tickets. Then your chance of winning on one of your tickets would be just about 50%. Your expected.

In gambling, you want your risk of ruin to be below 1%. That would mean buying over 300 million tickets.

The Expected Value of the Powerball is currently in your favor, but that doesn't mean "math says you should play". You shouldn't. You're just going to lose your money.

bigtool05 wrote:

elephino wrote:

Exactly. If those are the winning numbers, and they are just as likely as any other set of numbers, then those were the best numbers to pick regardless of how many people picked them.

What don't you guys get about this?

I'm not sure why they aren't getting this. Nobody is saying that those numbers are better or worse than other numbers. However, in the event that that the winning numbers end up being 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc. it is a lock that there will be more multiple winners than almost all other combinations because of other people who have implemented a similar strategy.

HGHed wrote:

bigtool05 wrote:

What don't you guys get about this?

I'm not sure why they aren't getting this. Nobody is saying that those numbers are better or worse than other numbers. However, in the event that that the winning numbers end up being 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc. it is a lock that there will be more multiple winners than almost all other combinations because of other people who have implemented a similar strategy.

Dude you just got trolled. No one here is seriously advocating playing 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Not only this, but he is misunderstanding expected value as well. EV is relevant only over the long term. Current poker theorists are starting to think that 1 million hands is not yet statistically relevant in regards to expected value. And, the odds there are much lower than in the PowerBall, A person could not live long enough (even with all that money) to play the PowerBall enough times to counteract "running bad".

#4 above is correct. There is no pot size large enough where it "makes sense" to play.

Ohslay on the uptakeay wrote:

In gambling, you want your risk of ruin to be below 1%. That would mean buying over 300 million tickets.

Let's also not forget the challenge of buying 300 million tickets with different numbers.

This is all well and good but try explaining it to the a-hole who is going to win hundreds of millions of dollars.

$2 is not a lot of money.

YA BLU IT

What you should do is pick a number with a pattern that nobody else will pick. People who try to think up random numbers will avoid anything resembling a pattern, such as two consecutive numbers, so they're less likely to share the prize. And there's not much risk of someone deliberately picking just two consecutive numbers either, pattern-pickers are more elaborate.