Justyn knight

He has a chance, but he's already lost multiple times this season to people that aren't as good as Cheserek- namely Marc Scott and Tommy Curtin. I'd bet on 5th-7th for him, with an off chance at being as high as 2nd or as low as 9th.

No chance. He does not understand tactics. He won't beat them at their game. He will let them fight their fight.

I wish he was a smarter race as I am from his city.

Also he did run in grade school so forget this "started at 15" crap LOL

He ran XC in middle school.

L8R

If he did race in middle school he must of taken his freshman and sophomore years off in high school..either way he has improved with each race this year and now is ready for a top 10 finish..considering just 2 years ago he was considered 3rd best Canadian under 18 behin Flannigan and Tate..now he is in talk for top 10 possible 5..join the hype..it's only once every decade we can actually talk Canadians in a NCAA D1 top 10..Good luck Justyn

Cheesecake is very good.

Knight is pretty good.

Very > Pretty

Cheesecake wins.

Knight does not win.

Didn't Ches lose earlier this year also?? The person who beat him didn't Knight beat that guy at Big East championships?

Just a thought

Xcountry12 wrote:

Didn't Ches lose earlier this year also?? The person who beat him didn't Knight beat that guy at Big East championships?

Just a thought

Nope. For one thing, Syracuse runs at the ACC championship, not the Big East. And Knight lost at ACCs to the same guy who beat Cheserak at Prenats-Tommy Curtin from Virginia Tech.

Too optimistic wrote:

He has a chance, but he's already lost multiple times this season to people that aren't as good as Cheserek- namely Marc Scott and Tommy Curtin. I'd bet on 5th-7th for him, with an off chance at being as high as 2nd or as low as 9th.

Tommy Curtin beat Ches at pre Nats. Your argument makes it seem like Ches is unstoppable but he has already lost this season in a major race. Knight can and will challenge the king

runnerbro wrote:

Too optimistic wrote:

He has a chance, but he's already lost multiple times this season to people that aren't as good as Cheserek- namely Marc Scott and Tommy Curtin. I'd bet on 5th-7th for him, with an off chance at being as high as 2nd or as low as 9th.

Tommy Curtin beat Ches at pre Nats. Your argument makes it seem like Ches is unstoppable but he has already lost this season in a major race. Knight can and will challenge the king

If that 8k was an extra 400 meters long Cheserek would have beat Curtin. Curtin was totally spent and Cheserek was closing hard.

well how about this: ches can race the special 10.4k, and curtin can win the 10k. It really is a shame they dont race rthat extra 400 meters, then ches would never lose! I also wish the 2004 Olympic 1500m final was 1900, then Lagat would've won! Kid, i think you're onto something here!

No one wins NCAA XC off of 50 miles a week.

If he doesn't hit a consistent 70-80 mpw before the start of next year's XC season then the best he can hope to be is a "somewhere in the top 10" guy, not a legit contender for the win.

Knight has a team goal for this race. Syracuse wants to be on the podium. He will do/risk what it takes to win (and end up blowing up and finishing 50th). His tactics will be around finishing top 10 with a shot at top 5.

Hay is in the barn and I think JK has a better stack than most.

Jhgihhhuhuhh wrote:

... He will NOT do/risk what it takes to win (and end up blowing up and finishing 50th).

Correction

8.4k? wrote:

I also wish the 2004 Olympic 1500m final was 1900, then Lagat would've won! Kid, i think you're onto something here!

But with a longer distance El G would have almost certainly won. However if the race was ~1450m when Lagat first passed El G then he would have won as El G wouldn't have had time to come back on him.

By the numbers wrote:

No one wins NCAA XC off of 50 miles a week.

If he doesn't hit a consistent 70-80 mpw before the start of next year's XC season then the best he can hope to be is a "somewhere in the top 10" guy, not a legit contender for the win.

This is true, but it is still pretty incredible that somebody could be a top 10 guy over 10k XC off of 50.

are you referring to his 2nd against curtin, 2nd against scott or 1st at regionals? i'd say he's got the tactics down alright, kid is in some pretty good company

1 #640 Kithuka, Kennedy JR Texas Tech 28:31.3

2 #403 Sambu, Stephen SR Arizona 28:38.6

3 #402 Lalang, Lawi SO Arizona 28:51.8

4 #661 Rotich, Anthony FR UTEP 29:13.5

5 #577 Mecheso, Girma SR Oklahoma State 29:14.8

1 Thomas Curtin

SR - Virginia Tech 23:18.2

2 Edward Cheserek

JR - Oregon 23:22.8

3 Anthony Rotich

SR - UTEP 23:23.5

4 Jonah Koech

FR - UTEP 23:24.3

5 Pierce Murphy

SR - Colorado 23:24.4

The pace is what makes me laugh. Thomas Curtin was by himself, which is worth something. But pushed, could he have broken 23? Is a man on your heels (or being strung along by a pack) worth 19 seconds? 28:31 is a hell of a time, and I (for one) believe Cheserek is every bit as good as that if the gauntlet is thrown down. Call me crazy. But I think the two UTEP guys are going to torch the kid, as well. Pre-Nats happened. We get it. But...

By the numbers wrote:

No one wins NCAA XC off of 50 miles a week.

If he doesn't hit a consistent 70-80 mpw before the start of next year's XC season then the best he can hope to be is a "somewhere in the top 10" guy, not a legit contender for the win.

This type of stuff makes me laugh, as if there is some magic number out there. I believe in high mileage and challenging the aerobic system, but for knight, 50mpw is challenging this aerobic system. You don't think Wilson Kipsang could beat cheserek off 50mpw? Caleb Ndiku? Whether or not knight has the genetic ceiling of a Kipsang or Ndiku is a separate question, but mileage is a highly individualized thing. I am sure that knight will progress into the higher mileage and progress in his performance. The question is whether 50mpw knight can beat 100mpw cheserek. The kid is young enough who knows, but if he loses, it won't be because he didn't run enough mileage.

416Runner wrote:

No chance. He does not understand tactics. He won't beat them at their game. He will let them fight their fight.

I wish he was a smarter race as I am from his city.

Also he did run in grade school so forget this "started at 15" crap LOL

He ran XC in middle school.

L8R

Tell us more about your vague statement that he "doesn't understand tactics." No runner Knight's age in Toronto is remotely his peer as a runner, so you must have been a spectator to any race where you've observed his tactics.

Running just race (probably 3-4 in a middle school "season") while never training is very common in junior high. I wouldn't describe every guy who does this as "running since age 12," any more than I would say every kid who played football at recess has been playing ball since 12. He started legitimate training at 15.

Sorry you're so bitter!