3200 times for HS freshmen boys

9:00-10:00

Anyone got something more specific?

Sorry, there's just no way to predict a senior time based on a freshman time. In fact I guarantee there have been freshman who've run 9:45 who ran over 10 as a senior, and those who've run under 9. So the first person who commented was actually going out on a limb!

Easy prediction: "Running sucks I want to play ..."

... OK. If you run at least 50 miles a week until senior year, and don't get fat, and don't have major injuries, I predict you'll run at least 9:20. I would guess the median boy who meets those conditions would run 9:15. Half would run faster and half slower.

9:28.

The difference in ages doesn't tell us anything useful. Some freshmen are already nearly fully grown at 14, and some haven't started growing at 15.

9:45 is an excellent time for a HS freshman, so there's a good chance he's got a good bit of growth and training behind him, and improvement in the future will be more gradual. Probably an equal chance of a HS PR of 9:33 as there is of a PR of 9:21.

Even with those conditions I gave? Those are pretty stringent-- I was actually thinking the median might actually be 9:10 for someone who stays over 50 mpw, stays slim, and stays healthy.

colder and wiser wrote:

9:28.

The difference in ages doesn't tell us anything useful. Some freshmen are already nearly fully grown at 14, and some haven't started growing at 15.

9:45 is an excellent time for a HS freshman, so there's a good chance he's got a good bit of growth and training behind him, and improvement in the future will be more gradual. Probably an equal chance of a HS PR of 9:33 as there is of a PR of 9:21.

Not Telling wrote:

For a freshman who runs 9:45, predict PR by end of senior year if...

the freshman was 14 when he ran 9:45

AND

the freshman was 15 when he ran 9:45

There is a local kid who as a frosh ran a 4:09/8:58, was injured most of his sophomore xc season, ran a 4:13/9:00 his sophomore track season, injured most of his junior xc season, and is now out with a stress fracture.

So, if I asked you what he would run his senior year if all I told you was that he did a 4:09/8:58 as a freshman, what would be your prediction?

Actually, I would say especially with your redundant conditions.

Most likely he ran 50 mpw as a freshman, no increase => no improvement. Slim, it is not easy to gain weight at that age when you are running 50 mpw.

Healthy, again 50 mpw is enough so you can't keep doing it if you keep getting hurt.

The questions are how mature is he and how long has he been running?

For a 9:45 Freshman to PR as a Senior at 9:33 is just someone who was lazy UNLESS they were doing high mileage at 14/15 and never increased it (which could be considered lazy too).

I think more depends upon current mileage than upon physical maturity. For reference, my son is a 9:57 freshman who was injured most of the winter, so averaged about 20-25 mpw (had averaged 35 in the fall). I would put more money on him than the 45 mpw freshman running 12 seconds faster. I want to know the mileage you are running OP. But to answer your question, my guess is somewhere between 8:55 and 9:25.

know i don't know wrote:

For a 9:45 Freshman to PR as a Senior at 9:33 is just someone who was lazy UNLESS they were doing high mileage at 14/15 and never increased it (which could be considered lazy too).

I think more depends upon current mileage than upon physical maturity. For reference, my son is a 9:57 freshman who was injured most of the winter, so averaged about 20-25 mpw (had averaged 35 in the fall). I would put more money on him than the 45 mpw freshman running 12 seconds faster. I want to know the mileage you are running OP. But to answer your question, my guess is somewhere between 8:55 and 9:25.

Being rather pejorative there, don't you think? Sometimes kids, for whatever the reason, plateau no matter what they do in their training regiment. I've seen it too many times to recklessly categorize it as "laziness".

Not Telling wrote:

For a freshman who runs 9:45, predict PR by end of senior year if...

the freshman was 14 when he ran 9:45

AND

the freshman was 15 when he ran 9:45

The age does make a difference as well as other factors; 9:45 is definitely a good time for a freshman and is a decent time for even a senior. The biggest indicator of what 9:45 means is the amount of training and the circumstances. Was this kid treated like a JV or was a varsity scorer and was in race where he got dragged only by mush better runners for example.

The easy answer and probably mostly likely is that this kid is going to be a star; however, I have seen kids who did not break 10 as a freshman and eventually ran sub-9 and kids who ran 9:4x and never got below 9:20. However, all things considered, 9:45 as a freshman is usually a sign of good things to come.