Predict my half marathon time.

DNF, try golf

Thanks. You're awesome. Any other takers?

I'd say 1:30 range, with the potential to be in the 1:27 range depending on how you hold on at the end. I recently ran 1:29 off of 50 mpw. Most of my mileage is done in the 8-8:20 range with a weekly interval workout, tempo run, and strides 2-3 times per week. For context, recently ran 5xmile at 6:15 pace with a 2 min interval. Would have a hard time running 6:26 pace for a 4 mile tempo. Usually run 4-5 mile tempos around 6:50 pace (turned out to be my half marathon pace). Did a 12 mile portion of a 15 mile run at 7:25 pace. Pacing wise, you really shouldn't feel uncomfortable until about the 8-10 mile portion of the race if you want to run an evenly paced race. Hard to say how your lower mileage will affect you so I'd suggest going out at what feels comfortably hard (turnover feels godo but respiration is unlabored) for the first 6 and adjusted from there.

1:32:30

Roland D. wrote:

Some workouts:

30-35 miles a week at 7:10-7:30 pace.

4 mile tempo at 6:26 pace.

10 and 11 mile long runs at 7:36 pace.

Did a few 6 mile runs at 6:50 pace.

I get tired around the 8.5 mile mark of each run, so I suck aerobically.

Give a good predication for my half or what I should shoot for so I don't bonk about the 9 mile mark.

Thanks.

I'm surprised by the first sentence: 30-35mpw at 7:10-7:30 pace

Do you do the 4 mile tempo, 10/11 long runs and 6 @ 6:50 all in one week?

Couple of thoughts. Note I ran 1:26 hm on 35-40mpw.

- 4 mi @ 6:26 is a very fast workout

- 6 mi @ 6:50 is good, you could work on building that towards 8-10

- 10-11 mi @ 7:36 is good too, build towards 12 @ 7:30

- take easy runs easy (mine are 3-4mi @ 8:45 to 9:30 pace..)

With a good 12 mi @ 7:30, 8 mi at 7:00 and some 4 mi @ 6:30 all in one week I think you are ready for circa 1:27 which is 6:40 pace.

If you really are bad aerobically then 1:28-1:29, but good quick 10-12 milers should build your aerobic strength.

No matter what don't run first few miles faster than 6:40 in your half.

I'm going to say 1:41

I definitely don't think you'll break 1:30 but you'll probably be around 1:38-1:45

I have been going out at 7:15-7:20 for the first 6 - 7 miles of my long run and really crashing. So, I think the game plan for me will be to be run with the 7:30 pace group and hammer the last three miles if I have anything left.

I was in much better shape a year ago (16:58 5K off of 50mpw), but I quit running and gained about 10 lbs. So I have some residual speed but nothing to support it.

I'll report back. The half is in two weeks.

THANKS!

DNF

Your long run pace and your tempo pace are only 70 seconds per mile apart? Hmmm ...

Anyhow, you have the potential currently to break 1:30 if you have a good day.

Roland D. wrote:

Some workouts:

30-35 miles a week at 7:10-7:30 pace.

4 mile tempo at 6:26 pace.

10 and 11 mile long runs at 7:36 pace.

Did a few 6 mile runs at 6:50 pace.

I get tired around the 8.5 mile mark of each run, so I suck aerobically.

Give a good predication for my half or what I should shoot for so I don't bonk about the 9 mile mark.

Thanks.

You could use more miles and and overhaul to your approach.

40 to 50 miles a week, with long runs in the 12-15 mile range, and slow your average running pace. With that kind of tweaking, 1:25-1:27.

At current training based on what you gave, 1:30 is about where you're at.

A few more recent workouts.

6x800m with 400m jogs (in trainers): 3:04, 3:04, 3:04, 3:01, 3:01, 2:55

12.1 mile long run at 7:18 pace.

Haven't done a tempo in a while.

I'm thinking of doing 7:05 pace for the first 11 miles, and hammering the last two miles (too ambitious?)

Thanks.

okay, so I may be the exception here, but I don't see why you cannot run close to 1:20. you have put in more miles than I did last year when I ran my first half and I ran 1:21. I worked my way up to 8 mile runs at around 7 minute pace 3-4 times a week. Not once did I run further and only one time did I average 6:15 pace. Which is the pace that I ended up averaging for my half. The race itself felt too easy, I should have been able to run faster maybe 2-4 minutes. just a quick background, I'm 32 5'11" 170 lbs and started running last year to get in shape after not running since college where I really didnt' run fast at all. I only ran a 430 mile,16 minute 5k and 32 minute 6 mile. all from 2000.I had never raced further than 6 miles and started out way too slow and just slowly built up my pace. Good luck on your race.

I'm thinking now 7:10 pace for the first 9, which is going to feel very easy, and then hammering the rest of the race to see if I can run an average of 6:59 pace.

There are also pace groups including a 6:30 group and 7:00 flat group. I'm skeptical of trying to hang on to the 7:00 group because I'm worried about having absolutely nothing left around 10-11 miles.

I will report back on Monday.