Sub 2 Hour Marathon Discussion: My Thoughts and Yours

It's hard to wrap your mind around the basic training that one would need to break two hours. If you plug 1:59:59 into the McMillan calculator you get the following training paces:

Easy Run Pace: 5:04 to 5:53

Tempo Run Pace: 4:16 to 4:26

Cruise Intervals: 4:07 to 4:16 per mile

Mile Repeats: 4:03 to 4:10

I can't imagine anyone being able to handle the necessary day-to-day workload during my lifetime.

What about this?:

Richard Branson decides to stop worrying about space flight for a while. He buys a large, flat plot of land in western Nebraska and builds a 5km track (fast surface, long straight-aways, broad turns). He throws appearance fees at the world's 15 best marathoners to come in and massively incentivizes fast marathon times: $ for keeping

[for some reason my last post didn't go through all the way]

What about this?:

Richard Branson decides to stop worrying about space flight for a while. He buys a large, flat plot of land in western Nebraska and builds a 5km track (fast surface, long straight-aways, broad turns). He throws appearance fees at the world's 15 best marathoners to come in and massively incentivizes fast marathon times: $ for keeping sub-2:00 pace for each 5km lap, $$ for any finish that beats existing world record, $$$ for winning, $$$$ for going sub-2:00. Oh, and race day happens to be partly-cloudy, light wind, and 49 degrees.

What happens?

holinshed wrote:

What about this?:

Richard Branson decides to stop worrying about space flight for a while. He buys a large, flat plot of land in western Nebraska and builds a 5km track (fast surface, long straight-aways, broad turns). He throws appearance fees at the world's 15 best marathoners to come in and massively incentivizes fast marathon times: $ for keeping

That's actually really cool. I'd put $5 in a kickstarter for that.

Nutella1 wrote:

I agree with everything in that article except the drugs part. You seem to assume that 12:37/26:17/2:03:38 are all clean performances. And I doubt that.

to be honest: i agree with this post as well.

look at those marathoners in the sub 2:12 range, their outstanding speed, recovery capabilities, consistent, hard training for years and their professional staff in the background supporting them. to be a clean sub 2:12 marathoner is in my point of view very difficult, but possible.

and now look at the gauss distribution: what a huge, huge difference by all means to be a sub 2:05 performer! you may laugh but i can´t believe in a clean sub 2:08.

fake runner wrote:

Nutella1 wrote:

I agree with everything in that article except the drugs part. You seem to assume that 12:37/26:17/2:03:38 are all clean performances. And I doubt that.

to be honest: i agree with this post as well.

look at those marathoners in the sub 2:12 range, their outstanding speed, recovery capabilities, consistent, hard training for years and their professional staff in the background supporting them. to be a clean sub 2:12 marathoner is in my point of view very difficult, but possible.

and now look at the gauss distribution: what a huge, huge difference by all means to be a sub 2:05 performer! you may laugh but i can´t believe in a clean sub 2:08.

I think a few people have run sub 2:08 clean, but most of them and probably almost every single kenyan and ethiopian is a doper. These guys should be monitored nearly 24/7. Random searches of their homes and training facilities. Weekly or biweekly drug tests. I guess I mostly agree with you but am a bit more optimistic.

I speculate someone will run a marathon sub 2 hours unaided (course/drugs/etc.) in the next 10 years.

I have been closely watching world class marathoning since 1978 and I think someone will run under two hours in less than ten years.

From 1967 to '85 the record only improved by 1:30 from 2:09:36 (Clayton) to 2:08:05 (Jones). During that era no one was talking about sub 2:05, we were still wowing about the fact that a sub 2:10 was so so fast.

It will happen, but indeed maybe not in our lifetime. Or maybe 20 or 25 years from now.

I'm not up on marathon timing, but considering the length is 26 miles, 385 yards, or 42 km, 195m, I take it that people have broken 1 hour for 25 miles / 40 km? Surely next then is 26 miles, 41km, 42km until it is achieved. I do believe it will be achieved in a generation or two - when I was growing up, I'm sure I remember a record around 2:06 or 2:05-4. I was born in 89. So I'm confident that it will be done in my lifetime. And indeed it seems the focus has gone from 5k/10k to Marathon in recent years - I would cite Geb and Paula for drawing more attention back to this event again, once done on the track.

(Interesting that Semenya and Griner are both gay - must be all the testosterone. I'm guessing they have an anatomical condition that leads to something like this. Griner looks like she could have pituitary gland imbalance like a lot of really tall people (7-8ft+). Interesting that Semenya was allowed to compete again, with slower times, I wonder if she has accepted 'normalising' injections of hormones to make her testosterone in line with female levels, or something. But she would still partially have the effect of training with the higher testosterone levels pre-2009, which in effect is similar to the former dopers that continued to compete after the fall of the iron curtain? The other question would be, how does Savinova beat her! While all the other Russian women have been caught doping. And her hairline is receding... yes circumstantially suspect judgement I know!)

many 17 year old Kenyans have run sub-13 over 5000m and

not improved. Probably they are not 17, but if we assume they

are, nothing points at the improvement you are suggesting.

59 perhaps. or perhaps never will run faster.

It will happen in the next 40 years. 40 years ago, the record was 2:09:12. Now it's 2:03:38. Just wait until Usain Bolt fathers a child with Tirunesh Dibaba.

the reason why the times have dropped, is the influx

of Kenyan and Ethiopian talent due to financial incentives.

Their genetic makeup is different from Caucasian runners and

so it does not make sense to compare the two groups.

Slow Bro wrote:

It will happen in the next 40 years. 40 years ago, the record was 2:09:12. Now it's 2:03:38.

40 years before that, it was 2:30. It's almost like there's no linear progression.

wr potential wrote:

I'm not up on marathon timing, but considering the length is 26 miles, 385 yards, or 42 km, 195m, I take it that people have broken 1 hour for 25 miles / 40 km? Surely next then is 26 miles, 41km, 42km until it is achieved. ...

Yeah, it really seems like it should be doable. With guys all over the place hitting 25 miles at just under 1 hour you'd think it was just a matter of time before someone could do the next 1.2 miles in under an hour. The problem with this way of thinking is that when you break 1 hour for your first 25 miles that's when that piano really just jumps on your back. I should know, I've been there and believe me, it hurts like a mother...!

What would someone with Bekele or Geb's talent have done if they had concentrated on the Marathon in their peak years

They would surely have run sub 2:03

BROJOS: I have found what is almost surely the fastest half-marathon run in a marathon. In the 2012 Berlin Marathon, Mutai et al passed 14K in 41:37, and they passed 35K in 1:42:29, covering 21 km in 1:00:52. A half-marathon is 97 extra meters, which would take about 17 extra seconds to cover, so it would be 1:01:09.

This is only two seconds off the 1:01:07 that he closed the 2011 Boston Marathon in, which even despite the wind is impressive when you consider the course profile.

crazy raisin wrote:

BROJOS: I have found what is almost surely the fastest half-marathon run in a marathon. In the 2012 Berlin Marathon, Mutai et al passed 14K in 41:37, and they passed 35K in 1:42:29, covering 21 km in 1:00:52. A half-marathon is 97 extra meters, which would take about 17 extra seconds to cover, so it would be 1:01:09.

This is only two seconds off the 1:01:07 that he closed the 2011 Boston Marathon in, which even despite the wind is impressive when you consider the course profile.

Actually if you start at 13K and end at 36K you get one more second back - so 1:01:08.

crazy raisin wrote:

BROJOS: I have found what is almost surely the fastest half-marathon run in a marathon. In the 2012 Berlin Marathon, Mutai et al passed 14K in 41:37, and they passed 35K in 1:42:29, covering 21 km in 1:00:52. A half-marathon is 97 extra meters, which would take about 17 extra seconds to cover, so it would be 1:01:09.

This is only two seconds off the 1:01:07 that he closed the 2011 Boston Marathon in, which even despite the wind is impressive when you consider the course profile.

Wait, did you just say that you found the fastest half-marathon run in a marathon and justify it by saying that it is only two seconds slower than the second half-marathon run during the 2011 Boston Marathon?

How does that work again?