Will Rupp peak later than most elite runners...

From a speed standpoint I think he is about at his peak. But he can probably sustain the speed he has now while getting stronger over the coming years.

I think he will knock off some more time from his 5/10k pr's and maybe even challenge the world record at the 10k and half marathon.

Yes. The way he has progressed and trained I think he still has a lot of room left for improvement. I think Rupp will be at the top for many more years to come.

ryan foreman wrote:

From a speed standpoint I think he is about at his peak. But he can probably sustain the speed he has now while getting stronger over the coming years.

This. He's not going to get much faster than 3:33/3:50. But he's only at 105 miles per week I believe. In three years he'll be at 125 or so, and will indeed challenge the world record in the 10k.

Pre is my favorite wrote:

ryan foreman wrote:

From a speed standpoint I think he is about at his peak. But he can probably sustain the speed he has now while getting stronger over the coming years.

This. He's not going to get much faster than 3:33/3:50. But he's only at 105 miles per week I believe. In three years he'll be at 125 or so, and will indeed challenge the world record in the 10k.

He went 3:50.9 indoors in January with no one pushing him to the line, and he was struggling to not pass his pacer. Most would say he's already better than 3:33 if he tried in a big meet outdoors. Most wouldn't be surprised with a 3:31 if his season pans out, or faster. But likely he won't be aiming for many 1500's that fast at his peak. Why would people put a ceiling on his times that he ran already indoors early...

Pre is my favorite wrote:

ryan foreman wrote:

From a speed standpoint I think he is about at his peak. But he can probably sustain the speed he has now while getting stronger over the coming years.

This. He's not going to get much faster than 3:33/3:50. But he's only at 105 miles per week I believe. In three years he'll be at 125 or so, and will indeed challenge the world record in the 10k.

Pretty sure that doesn't include at least 20 MPW of aqua-jogging that he does. Just a FYI.

I don't think he will run much faster if at all in the 5k or 10k. I think he will, in the next couple years, move to the marathon and smash all the American records.

Yup, Rupp will move and down. Marathon will be dust. 800m gone. 400m smashed as well. Major obliteration of 50k, 100k and then 100 mile records.

There is no stopping Rupp.

ace in the troll wrote:

I don't think he will run much faster if at all in the 5k or 10k. I think he will, in the next couple years, move to the marathon and smash all the American records.

alberto has said he is on the track through 2016

nobody is going to challenge the 10k world record

not rupp or anybody else

dream on

Rupp has already peaked, just like almost all high-school phenoms.

It seems like he's still getting faster because he atypically spent his peak years concentrating on the 10,000. If he'd concentrated on middle distance, he'd have been faster a couple years ago than he is now.

Mrr82 wrote:

Pre is my favorite wrote:

This. He's not going to get much faster than 3:33/3:50. But he's only at 105 miles per week I believe. In three years he'll be at 125 or so, and will indeed challenge the world record in the 10k.

He went 3:50.9 indoors in January with no one pushing him to the line, and he was struggling to not pass his pacer. Most would say he's already better than 3:33 if he tried in a big meet outdoors. Most wouldn't be surprised with a 3:31 if his season pans out, or faster. But likely he won't be aiming for many 1500's that fast at his peak. Why would people put a ceiling on his times that he ran already indoors early...

He had perfect rabbiting through 1,200m on a lightning fast indoor track. Alberto has said that he essentially peaked for this race by lowering his mileage, and it is common knowledge that he hammers the speed work in the winter. If he gets a perfect race I'll give him a 3:32 career PR.

Pre is my favorite wrote:

Mrr82 wrote:

He went 3:50.9 indoors in January with no one pushing him to the line, and he was struggling to not pass his pacer. Most would say he's already better than 3:33 if he tried in a big meet outdoors. Most wouldn't be surprised with a 3:31 if his season pans out, or faster. But likely he won't be aiming for many 1500's that fast at his peak. Why would people put a ceiling on his times that he ran already indoors early...

He had perfect rabbiting through 1,200m on a lightning fast indoor track. Alberto has said that he essentially peaked for this race by lowering his mileage, and it is common knowledge that he hammers the speed work in the winter. If he gets a perfect race I'll give him a 3:32 career PR.

I'm sorry...peaked? Giving the legs a little more rest is not even remotely peaking. And perfect pacing (it was good not perfect) is not the same as perfect pacing and competition to the line in July/August that you're chasing or is on your heals.

It's also common knowledge he ran much faster at 1500/mile outdoors last year than he did indoors. So your point goes out the window.

If Rupp gets into top 10 all time in any distance it would be an incredible accomplishment. He is nowhere near world records. But, if he gets to 12:50 or 26:40, he will have passed a lot of greats. He may be in a position to medal this year. I would like to see him try some half marathons before 2016. I think he may be able to get into low 59s.

Rupp will never challenge the 5k/10k WRs because he can't dope to his eyeballs and train in the remote mountain hideouts for most of the year like the Kenyans and Ethiopians in the 90s/2000s.

Just because the above point can't be reiterated enough literally nobody has ever run within NINE SECONDS of Bekele's WR except for Bekele, Geb, and Komen between 1995 and 2004

It is peaking, actually, when you're sharpening up with speed work all winter and tapering your mileage. What constitutes peaking if that does not?

Last year, his indoor mile PR was a complete joke. He ran 3:57 and then ran 8:09 a week later. Think he was only in 3:57 shape at that point? Clearly he could have gone 3:51-3:54.

Like I said... 3:32. Bekele only ran 3:32 btw.

Pre is my favorite wrote:

It is peaking, actually, when you're sharpening up with speed work all winter and tapering your mileage. What constitutes peaking if that does not?

Last year, his indoor mile PR was a complete joke. He ran 3:57 and then ran 8:09 a week later. Think he was only in 3:57 shape at that point? Clearly he could have gone 3:51-3:54.

Like I said... 3:32. Bekele only ran 3:32 btw.

Tapering? Again let's stop misusing words. He didn't taper, tapering is a gradual decrease in mileage with the goal of peaking. Rupp just cut back a bit in one week of training. That's not a taper and not peaking.

That said I do agree he was in better shape than 3:57 when went 8:09.72. That said most also think he was in better than 3:34 when he ran 3:34 basically with Farah. He never really ran an all out 1500. He was probably a 3:33 flat guy last year.

Bekele believed he could break the 1500 world record. Nobody believes he was a 3:32 guy. Not a valid point.

bekele geb and TERGAT only guys under 26-30

be like finding a needle in a haystack to establish what the clean mark is