Rupp runs 3:50!!

Video currently available on Flotrack with no subscription to view:

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250010-2013-BU-Terrier-Invitational/video/686072-M-Mile-H01-Elite-Rupp-35092-American-Record-Attempt-2013-BU-Terrier

Not sure if it will remain that way.

LM wrote:

Video currently available on Flotrack with no subscription to view:

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250010-2013-BU-Terrier-Invitational/video/686072-M-Mile-H01-Elite-Rupp-35092-American-Record-Attempt-2013-BU-Terrier

Not sure if it will remain that way.

Flotrack has said all archived video will remain free. Though live video used to be free, too...

Rupp running 3:50 for the mile?

That's a Lance Armstrong-like performance!

All of their replays will be free. They'll just "tape delay" it.

Sagarin wrote:Hey Ventolin, can you post your lines of fit assuming this kid is at 3:49?

i'm shocked by this run

i'm in camp that believes outdoor miles are worth 2 - 3s faster outdoors & so this is something like a 3'48 outdoors ( & not a perfectly paced race ( 30s opener from home page ) but close )

i don't think it indicates anything better for 10k than last year but it indicates some possibly stupendous lower distance races

i'll start with a prelim of

( but i might change these on further reflection as i'm still in shock & trying to "process" this phenomenal achievement )

51.3 / 1'48.0 ->

3'31.7

3'48.3

7'23.7

12'44.3

26'36.0

i think he keeps his speed well thruout the year, so i do believe these are sorta times he shoud be thinking about, given ideal races

he can go 3'31 this year & even 7'23s & a huge smashing thru of 12'50

also with low-51 speed, that's as good/better than what i reckoned mo had at his peak - he can beat mo now in slow, tactical races

there is another possibility

his speed may not have improved from last year, but his endurance may have come on a lot

that woud tend to yield lines of fit ( to include a 3'48 outdoors ) more along lines of

51.8 / 1'48.5 ->

3'31.8

3'48.3

7'22.0 !!!

12'39.1 !!!

26'19.5 !!!

we'd get a better idea if he or the camp tell us which if his endurance or speed has improved ( or both ) since last year

my feeling is that it may be bit of both so i'm thinking this looks a goldilocks scenario of not too hot or too cold

51.5 / 1'48.2 ->

3'31.8

3'48.3

7'23.0 !!

12'42.2 !!

26'29.4 !!

i'll go with those for now

It's going to be great race between he and Dejen next week.

run your code with a more realistic 3:49.26.

Keep in mind the 30s opener was for 209 meters.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

The best 1500 runners have never contested the mile very often. It is completely obscure on the European circuit. A Kenyan on the street does not have any idea how many meters there are to a mile.

.

Most people on the street on the street anywhere could not tell you how any meters are in a mile and many people here would get it wrong too. Most Americans on the street could not tell you how many feet or yards are in a mile and as track, is at the level of popularity it is, I imagine a large number could not tell you how many meters are in a 1500.

If you're still in shock, please go take your meds (and lots of them) and lie down! LOL.

A Duck wrote:

Sagarin wrote:

I would be surprised if he had the same speed in 2016. I think he is coming into peak form right about now, maybe next year. We'll see.

Anyone think he has a shot at sub 7:25 or sub 8:00?

I'd like to hear your reasoning.

Salazar has been completely careful to bring the guy along slowly, mileage and sprint wise.

Also, if you stood next to Rupp 3 years ago, he still looked like a kid up close, he still looked more high school, than post college.

Last year, he started looking like a young man. Physical maturity. He's 26. I don't think the "rules" for peaking at a certain age are the same for everyone.

We won't know, until we know.

I know he's been honed carefully and incredibly consistent for a distance runner of his caliber. I also agree that not everyone "peaks" at the same age, but Rupp essentially ran a 13:37 in high school. He has been racing fast and hard for many years now. He's deliberately working on refining his speed, and I don't see him being as fast at age 30 as 26,27, or 28. I think he gets as fast as he can this year or next, given his, now, enormous base and focus on speed. You never know what's going to happen, so I would not waste any opportunities THIS year if I were him.

I already said I saw him going 26:27 on the 10,000 thread. I think he has a realistic shot to break 12:45 now too. And 7:25. As far as 2016, if he stays healthy, he will likely still have great 5,000/10,000 fitness, but I doubt he will be capable of a 3:48-3:49 mile then. Hence, I see more of a 10,000/marathon type athlete. But I hope he proves me wrong and continues his progression right until age 30. BTW, I do think this kid can run 3:48 outdoors.

ventolin^3 wrote:

there is another possibility

his speed may not have improved from last year, but his endurance may have come on a lot

that woud tend to yield lines of fit ( to include a 3'48 outdoors ) more along lines of

51.8 / 1'48.5 ->

3'31.8

3'48.3

7'22.0 !!!

12'39.1 !!!

26'19.5 !!!

we'd get a better idea if he or the camp tell us which if his endurance or speed has improved ( or both ) since last year

my feeling is that it may be bit of both so i'm thinking this looks a goldilocks scenario of not too hot or too cold

51.5 / 1'48.2 ->

3'31.8

3'48.3

7'23.0 !!

12'42.2 !!

26'29.4 !!

i'll go with those for now

Thanks Ventolin. If he really runs 7:23 and 12:42, I think he will run a faster 10,000.

I would really love to se the kid run sub-8:00 for the deuce. That would be historic.

I think this run was absolutely great...

...but being Sprintgeezer, I can't help but look at what kind of company he is in at the top of the rankings.

Many believe Lagat to have been a doper, and anybody who believes that ElG WASN'T a doper is a retread. I've also heard a good case made that Morceli was using.

Granted, ElG and Lagat are 2.5 and 1 second faster than Rupp, but that is some questionable company he's keeping, is it not?

This is really a smoking time, IMHO, at a nothing time of year.

Q for mid/distance guys: does focusing on either the 1500 or 5k/10k adversely affect your performance at the other distance? If so, and if he's been training longer distance, what could this guy do if he focused on the 1500/mile?

I'm in the camp that this was a 3:51 mile, no more, no less. Great, but not world beating. If this had been a 3:34 1500 would that get us all up in arms? Probably not as much.

Everyone is different, but a 3 second drop indoors to outdoors might be true on a wood, 11 lap to the mile track..but these days you have very very good indoor tracks that are, if anything, faster than outdoor.

I race at the Armory and at Icahn stadium, and I am consistently faster at the Armory - it has a real bounce to it.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

I think this run was absolutely great...

...but being Sprintgeezer, I can't help but look at what kind of company he is in at the top of the rankings.

Many believe Lagat to have been a doper, and anybody who believes that ElG WASN'T a doper is a retread. I've also heard a good case made that Morceli was using.

Granted, ElG and Lagat are 2.5 and 1 second faster than Rupp, but that is some questionable company he's keeping, is it not?

This is really a smoking time, IMHO, at a nothing time of year.

Q for mid/distance guys: does focusing on either the 1500 or 5k/10k adversely affect your performance at the other distance? If so, and if he's been training longer distance, what could this guy do if he focused on the 1500/mile?

Yes, training for mid distance would hurt your 5k/10k ability at the time, and vice versa. Rupp is probably doing mostly mile training right now, and therefore doesn't have much improvement in him. I'll give him 3:32 this spring.

How long does it take for a 5k/10k guy to reach his max potential in the mile, after switching to mostly mile training?

Also, these guys are going at some speed, around 15 mph--wouldn't there be a significant benefit to drafting behind someone for longer?

I don't know--to me he looked like a 5k/10k runner who was running the mile.. I think that improvements would come not from his intrinsic ability improving, but from race conditions improving.

But I don't know jack about miling. Impressive!