2023 Chicago Marathon Women’s Preview: Chepngetich Seeks 3-Peat, Hassan Returns, & Sisson v Bates
Ruth Chepngetich ran 2:14:18 to win last year; Sifan Hassan will tackle Chicago just six weeks after earning 1500m bronze at the World Championships
By Jonathan Gault
Tigst Assefa‘s 2:11:53 world record at the Berlin Marathon two weeks ago prompted more than a few questions.
She broke the world record by HOW much?
She ran WHAT for her second half?
How did this happen?
Is this real?
All understandable reactions. But as the fall marathon season continues this weekend in Chicago, the question I’m most interested in is this: was Assefa’s 2:11:53 an outlier, or was it a sign of things to come?
The last time we saw a woman improve the marathon world record by a similar margin was 2003, when Paula Radcliffe took almost two minutes off her own record in London, going from 2:17:18 to 2:15:25. That mark stood for more than 16 years and for most of that time, it was viewed as untouchable; no other woman even ran 2:17 until 2017.
But we only need to go back a year to find an example of Assefa setting a new bar and her competitors clearing it. When Assefa won Berlin in September 2022 in 2:15:37, it was the fastest any woman had run since Brigid Kosgei‘s world record of 2:14:04 in 2019 and the third-fastest time ever. Three months later, Assefa’s time was only the third-fastest of 2022 — Ruth Chepngetich ran 2:14:18 in Chicago and Amane Beriso ran 2:14:58 in Valencia.
A second world record in three weeks may be too much to ask. But it would not be a shock if Chepngetich — who on Sunday will try to become the first person, male or female, to win three consecutive Chicago Marathons — clocks a time in the 2:12s or 2:13s and makes 2:11:53 look a little less insane. Chepngetich was in 2:13 shape last year — at least — but overcooked things by going out in 30:40 for her first 10k (2:09:23 marathon pace) and 65:44 for her first half (2:11:28 pace). Sunday’s weather forecast is looking good (overcast, temps in the 40s-50s, 5-9 mph wind). If we’re going to see another super fast marathon by a woman in 2023, Chicago is one of the best places for it to happen and Chepngetich is one of the best candidates to do it.
But this race need not be all about time. Between Chepngetich, Joycline Jepkosgei (2019 NYC/2021 London champ), and Sifan Hassan — who will run Chicago just 47 days after earning a bronze medal in the 1500 meters at the World Championships — there are some very accomplished women in the international elite field.
The battle among the Americans should also be fantastic. Emily Sisson set the American record of 2:18:29 in Chicago last year to finish 2nd and is back after having to scratch from London in the spring. Emma Bates, the runner-up in Chicago two years ago, is in the form of her life after a 2:22:10, 5th-place finish in Boston in April. And Olympic bronze medalist Molly Seidel is on the comeback trail, lining up for her first marathon since dropping out of Boston 18 months ago.
There’s a lot to dive into. Let’s get to it.
What: 2023 Bank of America Chicago Marathon
When: Sunday, October 8. Elite race starts at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Where: Chicago, Illinois (course map)
*TV/streaming information *Full elite fields
Chepngetich favored for three-peat with Hassan lurking
© 2022 Bank of America Chicago Marathon/Kevin Morris
When Ruth Chepngetich runs a marathon, she usually goes out hard. At 2020 London, despite rainy conditions, she passed halfway in 68:12 before struggling home in 73:47 to run 2:22:05. In Chicago in 2021, Chepngetich ignored 70-degree temperatures and went out even faster, running her first half in 67:34. She also closed slower, with a 74:57, but still won the race in 2:22:31. Last year in Chicago, Chepngetich famously went out in 65:44 — the fastest first half in the history of women’s marathoning — and came back in 68:34 to run 2:14:18.
Chepngetich does not always do this — her splits in her victory in Nagoya in March were relatively even (68:47/69:21) and she actually negative-split her 2022 Nagoya win (69:05/68:15). But no one should be surprised if Chepngetich floors it from the gun on Sunday.
And if that happens, Chepngetich could blow this field away — if she’s in 2:12 or 2:13 shape, she is unlikely to be challenged. Last year, Chepngetich dropped the rest of the women’s field almost immediately; she led by 1:55 at 10k and no one would ever get any closer. That makes sense. Chepngetich ran her first 10k in 30:40. You would have been crazy to run with her!
The thing is, there’s a crazy person in this year’s elite field: Sifan Hassan. This is a woman who, in her debut marathon, stopped twice just before halfway to stretch out her quad and still won the race. A woman who tripled in the 1500, 5,000, and 10,000 at Worlds in August — and still snuck in a track workout on the night of the 1500 final. A woman who signed up for Chicago, even though she’d have only six weeks to prepare after Worlds. Ahead of her marathon debut in London, Hassan said her goal was merely to “meet the marathon, get to know each other.” She ended up winning the damn thing ahead of some of the best female marathoners on the planet. She is not flying to Chicago for a personal best; if there is a race, Hassan is going to put herself in it.
Hassan ran 2:18:33 in London, but considering her in-race injury issues and the pbs of the women she beat such as Peres Jepchirchir (2:17:16) Yalemzerf Yehualaw (2:17:23), and Almaz Ayana (2:17:20), it’s not a stretch to say Hassan is capable of something in at least the low-2:17s in perfect conditions.
Could she do even better than that?
A few weeks ago, I would have said that if Chepngetich goes out in 66:00 or 67:00, it would be suicide for Hassan to follow. Now I’m not so sure. The last year of racing has taken a flamethrower to the conventional wisdom of the marathon. Tigst Assefa was an Olympian at 800 meters who has now run 2:11 and 2:15 for 26.2 miles. Hassan (also an Olympian at 800 meters, with a much faster pb of 1:56) won London despite doing the last month of her buildup (which was not purely marathon-focused) while fasting during Ramadan. No one — not even Hassan — knows her ultimate marathon potential. And considering Hassan has run 14:13 and 29:37 on the track this year, she is not going to be scared off by a fast early split.
That said, we are not going to see the best possible version of Hassan on Sunday. Forget about her lack of marathon-specific training for a minute — though it’s important to note that this is a woman earned a bronze medal in the 1500 at Worlds six weeks ago. What does Hassan have left to give in this race? After her Olympic triple in 2021, Hassan did not resume full-time training for eight months. It took her that long to recover from the mental and physical toll of Tokyo. Now she’s supposed to turn around from Budapest in six weeks and be fired up to run 26.2 miles in Chicago? Even Hassan has her limits.
“The last two weeks I was really tired,” Hassan told Views from the Concourse ahead of Chicago. “I was tired mentally, I was tired physically. Looking back I was like oh my god, I pushed myself too hard and I’m curious what is going to happen.”
(Editor’s note: We’ll have more from Hassan and the Chicago stars on Friday after we speak to them at the pre-meet press conference)
We’re all curious. That is why Hassan is one of the most fascinating athletes in the sport. And if Chepngetich blows up and/or the winning time is slower than expected — in the 2:17-2:18 range — then Hassan could play a major role in this race. But Chepngetich has to be the favorite.
Other women to watch
- Joyciline Jepkosgei, Kenya (2:17:43 pb): Jepkosgei has struggled in two appearances in Boston but otherwise has never finished lower than second in a marathon, with wins in New York and London and runner-up finishes in Valencia and London. The former half marathon world record holder also ran a pb at that distance in February in Barcelona (64:46).
- Tadu Teshome Nare, Ethiopia (2:17:36 pb): Teshome made a huge breakthrough last year by running a nine-minute pb of 2:17:36 in Valencia. She was only 8th in her most recent marathon in London (2:21:31) but at just 22 years old, she may not be done improving.
- Genzebe Dibaba, Ethiopia (2:18:05 pb): Like Hassan, Dibaba was a track star before moving up to the marathon and boasts impressive range, with a 3:50 1500 pb and 2:18:05 marathon from her debut last fall in Amsterdam.
- Ababel Yeshaneh, Ethiopia (2:20:51 pb): Yeshaneh does not have a gaudy pb, but it’s because her last three marathon finishes have come in either New York or Boston. She has excelled on those courses, finishing 3rd, 2nd, and 4th and coming within four seconds of beating the great Peres Jepchirchir in Boston in 2022. With a half marathon pb of 64:31 — she held the world record from 2020-21 — Yeshaneh should be ready to rip a big pb on Chicago’s flat, fast course.
The Americans: Sisson v Bates offers an Olympic Trials preview
(The LetsRun.com crew debated who would be the top American on this week’s podcast,t if you’d like to watch above or listen here)
Sisson set the AR in Chicago last year (Kevin Morris)
In April, ahead of her appearance at the Boston Marathon, Emma Bates said she felt she was in shape to run an American record on a flat course. On race day, Bates backed it up — she led much of the race in Boston and ran a pb of 2:22:10 to finish 5th.
In her last marathon, Emily Sisson actually did run an American record: 2:18:29 to finish 2nd in Chicago in 2022.
On Sunday, the two will race for the first time in a marathon since the 2020 Olympic Trials. And whoever comes out on top on Sunday will likely enter as the favorite for the 2024 Olympic Trials, to be held on February 3 in Orlando. It should be a terrific matchup.
But if you’re expecting another American record, you may want to pump the brakes.
That’s not to say Sisson is not in shape for it. In the year since her 2:18:29 in Chicago, Sisson has continued to post exceptional results. In Houston in January, she ran 66:52 to lower her own American record in the half marathon (since broken). In March, she won the US 15k champs by nearly a minute and a half. In August, she ran one of the fastest times ever at the Falmouth Road Race (35:32 for 7 miles) to finish second behind Boston Marathon champ Hellen Obiri. Most recently, she won the US 20k title on September 4.
The only hiccup came in the spring, when Sisson had to withdraw from the London Marathon after a hip injury hampered her training. But that is well behind her now.
“[Her buildup] has gone really well,” Sisson’s coach Ray Treacy told LetsRun. “Very similar to last year. There’s been no hiccups. Everything that she’s wanted to get done, we’ve gotten done. And obviously a year older, a year stronger, hopefully.”
But unlike last year, when Sisson arrived in Chicago with two personal pacers set to go out on American record pace, she is not as focused on time this weekend. She may be the American record holder, but Sisson has only started three marathons in her career. And the only one without pacers — the 2020 Olympic Trials in Atlanta — is the one she did not finish.
“We just want to race, get into a race situation, have a different type of race than last year,” Treacy said. “Because last year she just ran the whole way with the two pacers. This is more getting ready for the Trials and being able to come out of the race feeling pretty good.”
We could still see a fast time on Sunday. Chicago has contracted Matt Llano to run under 70:00 for the first half and he plans on going to 30k. But for Sisson, Chicago is about racing people, head-to-head.
Bates led much of the race in Boston in April (Kevin Morris photo)
In practice, that probably means racing Emma Bates. Her 2:22:10 in Boston shows Bates is ready to challenge for sub-2:20 in ideal conditions. It’s reasonable to assume she’ll go out with Llano and Sisson.
Bates has not raced since Boston, but she has a good history in Chicago (4th in 2019, 2nd in 2021) and has continued to improve in the marathon since her debut in 2018, running pbs in each of the last three years. The ideal scenario on Sunday: Sisson and Bates hit 30k together, Llano drops out, and we get to see them slug it out over the final 12k.
Originally, 2020 Trials champ Aliphine Tuliamuk was also supposed to be in this race, but she was forced to withdraw with a hamstring injury. None of the other Americans in Chicago have shown they’re good enough right now to handle 70:00 at halfway, so it could be just Bates, Sisson, and a handful of sub-elite men at that pace.
Molly Seidel looking to take a step back towards Olympic contention
Molly Seidel’s marathon career took off like a rocket ship. A surprise runner-up finish at the 2020 Olympic Trials in her debut. A 2:25:13 pb that fall in London. A stunning bronze medal at the 2021 Olympics, and another pb — an American course record of 2:24:42 — in New York three months later.
The last two years, Seidel has come back to Earth. She dropped out of the 2022 Boston Marathon with a hip injury, and hip/sacrum issues have continued to plague her, causing her to withdraw from the Worlds marathon in July 2022 and Nagoya in March 2023. When Seidel has raced at shorter distances, she’s been a shell of herself — her times at this year’s US Half Marathon Championships in February (73:08) and US 20K Championships in September (69:04) are paces peak Seidel would have had no problem holding for the full marathon distance. And as she struggled on the roads, Seidel has also had to fight an ongoing battle with her mental health and an eating disorder.
Heading into Chicago, Seidel looks to be trending in the right direction. She’s been running the sort of mega miles (130+ per week) that presaged her 2020-21 breakout, and, importantly, she has stayed healthy. Seidel’s coach Jon Green told LetsRun this segment has represented a “real step forward” from her recent buildups.
“We’re in a good grove and workouts are going well,” Green said. “…The fitness level we’re at is in a good spot.”
Green was encouraged by Seidel’s run at the Falmouth Road Race (8th in 36:44 for 7 miles) and believes Seidel could better her 2:24:42 pb with a good race on Sunday. But he and Seidel are thinking longer term.
“We’re not showing up unprepared by any means, but our main goal right now is really focusing on the Trials,” Green said. “That’s where all of our attention is. Everything we’re doing, basically for the last year, year-and-a-half, has been with the focus of the Trials being the main event.”
Seidel does not have the gaudy pbs of a Sisson, Keira D’Amato, or Sara Hall. But she has gotten it done on the biggest stage in the sport. Anything in the 2:25-2:26 range on Sunday would send a message that Seidel must be taken very seriously with another four months to prepare for Orlando.
“Where Molly is today is very different than where she was a year ago,” Green said. “Her body is moving really well now and she’s just been doing really well overall. I think we have a very good shot at Trials of making that team.”
Could Des Linden break the American masters record?
In 2015, a 42-year-old Deena Kastor ran 2:27:47 in Chicago to set the American women’s masters record (40+) in the marathon. Eight years later, that time remains untouched, but with a crop of top Americans coming of age, the record is likely to be lowered in the coming years.
Sara Hall, who turned 40 on April 15, has actually run much faster than Kastor’s time already, but her 2:25:48 in Boston was not on a record-eligible course. So it falls to Des Linden, who turned 40 on July 26, to take the first crack at it. Linden also ran faster than Kastor’s time in Boston (2:27:18) and will have a good shot to break the record in her first Chicago appearance since 2010. In that race, Linden ran 2:26:20, which was good enough for 2nd after a couple of belated Russian doping DQs. The 2010 Linden was a better athlete than the 2023 version, but considering 2010 Chicago featured temperatures in the 70s and Linden will now have supershoes on her feet, it will be interesting to see how close she can come to her time from 13 years ago.
If Linden does set the record, it may not last long. Hall is clearly a threat to break it if she can stay healthy, and Keira D’Amato, who just ran an American record of 66:39 in the half, turns 40 next year.
Be sure to come back to LetsRun the rest of the week for more coverage from Chicago. In the meantime, talk about the 2023 Chicago Marathon on our world-famous messageboard.
More: 2023 Chicago Marathon Men’s Preview: Mantz v Rupp and How Fast Does Kelvin Kiptum Run? Conner Mantz and Galen Rupp lead a strong US field; what can Kiptum do for an encore after running 2:01 in his first two marathons?
