American Marathon Debut Record? Conner Mantz Set to Rock 2022 Chicago Marathon

Mantz heads to Chicago with high expectations

By Jonathan Gault
October 6, 2022

American distance fans, it’s time to get excited. Conner Mantz and Emily Sisson, two of the United States’ best long-distance runners, will run the Bank of America Chicago Marathon on Sunday, and both have the potential to do something special in the Windy City. Mantz, 25, is openly talking about the US debut record of 2:07:56 set by Leonard Korir in 2019, while Sisson, 30, is hoping to become just the third American woman under the 2:20 barrier.

I preview Mantz’s debut below. Sisson’s possible American record attempt gets its own article here: LRC American record alert? Emily Sisson is ready for the 2022 Chicago Marathon

All indications suggest Mantz’s goal of the fastest marathon debut in American history is attainable in Chicago. Mantz, the first American man to win multiple NCAA cross country titles since Bob Kennedy, has excelled across all distances since turning professional at the end of 2021, winning US titles in the half marathon and 20K and running track personal bests of 13:10 and 27:25.

Conner Mantz wins the 2022 USATF 20-K Championships in New Haven, Conn., in 59:08 (photo by Jane Monti for Race Results Weekly)

Mantz’s coach, Ed Eyestone (who ran his pb of 2:10:59 in Chicago in 1990), says Mantz has had a great buildup and his training has surpassed anything Jared Ward (whom Eyestone also coaches) did ahead of his marathons — which included a 6th place at the 2016 Olympics and a 2:09:25 in Boston in 2019.

The most-anticipated debut by an American man since Galen Rupp

It’s been a while since there’s been reason to get super excited about an American man debuting in the marathon. When Korir ran the debut record of 2:07:56 in Amsterdam in 2019, almost no one even knew he was running the race. Galen Rupp‘s debut at the 2016 Olympic Trials was a big deal, but before him you’d have to go back to Ryan Hall (2007 London) or Dathan Ritzenhein (2006 New York) to find an athlete with the same sort of expectations that Mantz will carry to the start line on Sunday.

Mantz won his second NCAA XC title in November 2021 (Photo by Ben Sheehan)

Mantz checks all the boxes for what you’d want to see in a marathon debut. He’s a massive talent (as shown by those two NCAA XC titles), and during his college career at BYU he demonstrated the traits needed to excel in the marathon: toughness, guts, and a willingness to embrace suffering. At 25, he’s making his debut relatively early in his professional career rather than waiting until he’s done with the track as so many Americans do. He’s in terrific form, running 27:25 for 10,000 in March, finishing 4th at USAs in the 5,000 in June, and most recently winning the US 20K champs in September. And he’s not afraid to put his goals out there; he told Citius Mag he’s shooting for Korir’s debut record in Chicago.

Considering only five Americans have ever broken 2:08 in the marathon, that sounds like a lofty goal. But remember this is the super shoe era and 2:07:56 is the sort of time Mantz should be targeting in his opening marathon. Is it really crazy to suggest one of America’s top distance talents should be capable of running just under seven minutes slower than the world record?

World Athletics’ scoring tables say Mantz’s 27:25 10,000 pb is worth 2:08:28 in the marathon, and it’s not unreasonable to expect Mantz will be a better marathoner than 10,000 runner. His times in the 20k/half aren’t mind-blowing — 60:55 at the US Half champs in December ’21, 59:08 at the 20K champs last month (62:22 half marathon pace) — but they require context. First, he won both those races. Second, the 20K came in extremely muggy weather in the midst of a high-volume week. If he chose to build a training block around it, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Mantz break the American record in the half next year.

2:08 would still qualify as a good debut for Mantz. But add in the specifics of Chicago — flat course, good weather (race temps forecast in the 40s) — and the supershoes and it’s realistic for him to chase something faster. Eyestone wants Mantz to be patient, to avoid getting too excited, too early. He’d like Mantz to hit halfway feeling relaxed with the opportunity to pick things up late in the race if he’s feeling good. And Eyestone believes Mantz can do that while still running a pace few Americans have ever managed for a full marathon.

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“It’s funny to say 64:00 on your opening marathon is conservative,” Eyestone said. “But I think given the shoes, given the athlete, given the era we’re in, 64:00 for him is a kind of conservative first half.”

Eyestone knows there is no perfect method for determining who can make the leap from elite athlete at shorter distances to elite marathoner. He recalls the old quote from former American 10,000 record holder Mark Nenow (27:20 pb) after his marathon debut as a reminder not to overrate track times — “I never used to have any respect for a 2:14 marathoner, now I am one.” Yet Mantz’s ceiling in the marathon is undeniable.

“When you compare him with many of the guys who have run the 2:04’s, the 2:05’s, his track chops are certainly in the same ballpark with these guys,” Eyestone said.

According to Tilastopaja.eu, outdoors 211 African men have run faster than Mantz’s 13:10.24 5000 pb (Mantz’s pb came indoors). The 211th-fastest African marathoner according to Tilastopaja has run 2:06:35.

Another way to think about it: Mantz’s pbs of 13:10 and 27:25 would rank him #2 and #3, respectively, on the all-time Japanese lists at those distances. Yet Japan has produced 46 men who have broken 2:08 in the marathon.

Obviously, Mantz isn’t from Africa or Japan, but a 25-year-old with Mantz’s pbs from any of the great marathon nations — Japan, Kenya, Ethiopia — would be expected to go out even faster than 64:00. It’s just rare to see an American with those sort of track times run a marathon in their mid-20’s and unprecedented in the super shoe era which has shifted marathon times down by more than two minutes.

Mantz’s buildup, Eyestone says, has gone “extremely well.” Mantz has averaged around 10 miles per week higher than ever before, consistently hitting 110 miles in six days (Mantz takes Sundays off). He’s bumped up his long runs, alternating 25 and 20 miles, and Eyestone says Mantz has grown very comfortable running 4:53/mile pace (2:08:02 marathon pace) for extended periods in training in Provo, which is situated at more than 4,500 feet of altitude.

Indeed, at times Mantz has gone significantly faster than 4:53. Peruse Mantz’s training on Strava and you’ll find some impressive sessions for 4,500 feet: six miles at 4:34 pace on August 18; 10 miles at 4:47 pace on August 23; eight miles at 4:45 pace on September 27.

“That’s particularly nice when we’re up at altitude and he’s able to do that,” Eyestone said, before adding a note of caution. “But he’ll be going further than he ever has in a hard race.”

One other challenge Mantz may have to reckon with on race day is finding a group to run with. While the exact paces for the pacemakers have yet to be specified, the leaders are expected to go out somewhere in the 62:00 range, which is too fast for Mantz. However, there are four Japanese athletes in the field with pbs ranging from 2:06:35 to 2:08:51 who could be running Mantz’s pace. The field is deep enough (23 men with sub-2:10 pbs) that Eyestone expects Mantz will find people to run with. And he trusts his athlete to make the right decisions on the fly.

“If it came down to running 64:00 on your own [for the first half] or there’s a rabbit at 63:30, I’d probably go okay, well you run as easy as you can in that pack at 63:30,” Eyestone said. “But odds are it won’t come down to that.”

***

It may be a while until there’s another race like this for American marathon fans. There’s nothing like a high-profile debut to drive excitement about a race. Football nerds can geek out about their next matchup by wondering how Patrick Mahomes will handle two-deep coverage or how the Bengals will block Aaron Donald. Marathoning doesn’t offer the same variety of strategic elements, so we have to rely on the data we do have: times. Nothing gets a track nerds more excited than taking an athlete’s personal bests and projecting a result for a new distance (why do you think the LetsRun messageboard is so popular?).

A marathon debut is the ultimate opportunity for this, particularly when the forecast looks pretty good (temps 45-50, wind 11 mph). The combination of anticipation/expectation is off the charts for Chicago. Let’s see what happens.

How fast do you think Mantz will run? Vote in our poll and then talk about it on our messageboard.

MB: Conner Mantz says 4:46 pace at altitude feels “comfortable” – Indicates he will go out in 1:03 at Chicago Marathon

More: American record alert? Emily Sisson is ready for the 2022 Chicago Marathon Emily Sisson hasn’t raced a fast marathon in years. Can she get the American record in her return to the 26.2 distance? “We’re hoping around 69:30 [for a halfway split],” Treacy said. “Get to 20 miles, see where you are, see how you’re feeling and then hang on or pick it up.”

Complete 2022 Chicago Marathon Coverage