Why do we think a coronavirus vaccine will be better than a flu vaccine? Flu vaccine only prevents 10% of deaths

The simple truth is that we don't know. We don't know when or even if a successful vaccine will ever be created--much less how effective it will be. We definitely should not be taking it for granted that we will ever have an effective vaccine for this.

It is funny how the goal of lockdowns has shifted. Initially it was supposed to "flatten the curve" to prevent medical resources from being overwhelmed. It was not supposed to reduce the total number of people infected; it was just supposed to spread out the infections. But now there has been an unspoken shift to where it seems like people are determined to do absolutely everything they can (economy be damned) to avoid ever getting infected. But this may be futile. It may only be delaying the inevitable.

Taking a big hit to the economy in order to flatten the curve makes sense. Plunging into the next great depression in order to delay the inevitable makes less sense. At this point we are betting big on treatments or vaccines to come through for us in a big way. If they don't, then we will really have destroyed our economy for nothing.

Others responded to the vaccine concerning the rate of mutation. Let me respond to this:

wejo wrote:

I just got into an argument on opening back up with Rojo.

His said, "We shouldn't be opening back up when we're near the peak in number of cases being detected."

I said "I thought we shut everything down to flatten the curve and outside of a few hotspots hospital resources are well under capacity." (Texas for example is having 2 deaths per 1000, NY 80. I just calculated the deaths in 3 states around NY 70/100k, in rest of country it's7).

Him: "But it could spread again fast."

Me: "It could but the stated goal was to flatten the curve and that has been done in the vast majority of the country. Are the goals now to shutdown everywhere until there's a vaccine? That's something completely different than what we were told"

Him: "Good point"

The point of flattening the curve was to get things under control so we don't have a catastrophe. Aside from NYC, that's been pretty successful.

Now that things are under control, it makes sense to talk about the long term plan.

Unless we want to just let a bunch of people die, I think the long term plan has to be a combination of increased testing, dedicated contact tracing, tracking, and continuation of careful behaviors to avoid infection (some degree of social separation, mask wearing, hand washing, etc).

We aren't capable of doing all the testing we need to do. Right now we can have enough tests for people who are very sick who need to be diagnosed, but we don't have enough tests for all the people we suspect might be sick. The roadblocks are both bureaucratic (who pays?), and technical (we need more equipment).

We also don't have tracking and contact tracing protocols put in place or even agreed upon.

But all of these things become more feasible and effective when the number of infected individuals is small.

So I think the plan right now is to continue sheltering in place until the number of infected individuals shrinks to the point at which these other suppression tactics can become feasible.

I listened to a talk by the head of a hospital in California yesterday, and he pointed out that Hawaii isn't letting people just enter the state -- they have to be in quarantine for a number of days before they are allowed to go about their business. Other states haven't ruled this out (although it will affect tourism, right now tourism is zero).

I had a couple of other points but I've forgotten what they were and I have to get back to work.

student of economics wrote:

kibitzer wrote:

Wow--he's really going at it in a subtle and roundabout way, then.

You know, given that he's spending hundreds of millions to try to end a disease that kills thousands of sub-Saharan African children every day.

OR, wait--could it be that you're, you know, completely fucking wrong? Yeah, i suppose that could be another way to go.

You offered no evidence I am wrong. Does Gates know anything about medicine or biology? You made no mention of abortion rate in Africa pre-Gates and abortion rate in Africa during Gates era. Your foul language impresses no one. You must be a Microsoft shareholder and a Microsoft employee. Regarding the money Gates spends, Gates truly believes in Malthusian economics. The amount of money Gates spends simply confirms the strength of his belief in Malthusian economics.

To the extent that I understand the term "Malthusian economics"--and you'll correct me if I'm wrong--it refers to Malthus's concept that population growth outstrips the resources to sustain that growth. Malthus's idea is certainly fallacious: There are more humans now than ever, yet a higher percentage than ever before in history get enough to eat.

As far the post by "kibitzer": S/he seemed to be responding to your post that suggested Bill Gates was trying to convince black African women to reproduce less. This would ultimately limit the number of black Africans, of course, and would indeed seem to be a Malthusian objective!

But then the article s/he attached indicated that Gates and the UK were committed to spending large sums to combat malaria in Africa. We do know that malaria kills on the order of a million humans per annum worldwide, and most of them are black African children.

So I think the point s/he was trying to make was that there would be *more* black Africans, and not fewer, if malaria were ended; so if Bill Gates really were trying to *reduce* the number of black Africans, fighting malaria in Africa would seem a strange way to accomplish it.

Apologies if I have misunderstood or misstated anyone's position.

Giles Corey wrote:

I have never in my life got a flu shot and have never had the flu.

In over 60 years.

I won't be in line to take any Covid19 vaccine.

The same for me.

The idea of getting shots to try and build up immunity is totally ridiculous.

Usually tearing down the immunity is what happens.

dunes runner wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

I have never in my life got a flu shot and have never had the flu.

In over 60 years.

I won't be in line to take any Covid19 vaccine.

The same for me.

The idea of getting shots to try and build up immunity is totally ridiculous.

Usually tearing down the immunity is what happens.

Eddy Hellebuyck says hi.

Vaccines are worse than useless. Get rid of them, and watch as number of auto-immune disorders, SIDS, and autism disappear. And, the plans for the digital-ID, quantum tattoo in the plans by Bill Gates for covid-19 should be enough to get anyone who doesn't want to be mind controlled slave on the anti-vax side.

woiklwhjjsjhd wrote:

Vaccines are worse than useless.

Those of us who were alive when smallpox was still endemic within the world, and polio endemic within the United States, will disagree.

How fortunate you are to live in a time when many major diseases have been eliminated or dramatically reduced.

By vaccination.

All the experts I have heard say that a vaccine will be created. How long it lasts is unknown however.

The social distancing is working in many areas of the world and some locations have already begun reopening to some extent. I think it will be hard for the governments to control people anymore then they have in the past (which is very bad in it's self).

I am hopeful that people will finally change society and get rid of the democratic structure and replace it with pure freedom and helping your neighbors everywhere. I was telling people a long time ago that the Chinese government needed to step down or be forced to. Now we are paying the price of just how bad it is to have governments in the world. We need professional health surveillance. Not political gobbledygook.

A modern version of Malthusian theory: lower infant mortality rate, black African women will conceive fewer children, lower illness and death due to malaria, black African women will conceive fewer children in general, empower black women more, black women will conceive fewer children, improve water purification and add modern plumbing, this will, in theory encourage black women to believe they do not need to conceive as many offspring because black women, in theory will not lose as many offspring to disease when offspring are infants.

Gates is on a Malthusian journey. Gates is doing what he is doing so Gates can sell abortion as women empowerment in Africa. Gates is not the first person to encourage abortion among blacks &/or black Africans. See Margaret Sanger.

We do not have starvation due to lack of potential food production globally. We have starvation due to political decisions as you know. Environmental economists and environmental biologists have studied the environment impact of corn based ethanol. It hurts environment as much as it helps. Even if it helps the environment, we could use other vegetation. We waste perfectly good corn as a biofuel. Farmers in wealthy nations are subsidized to produce below equilibrium. The globe does not need Gates to attempt to empower women into believing abortion is women empowerment.

The part that gets me with all of this is that we may never have a coronavirus vaccine. Do you guys think as we continue to focus on antibody testing, and people become more used to the possibility that the virus was here much longer than originally anticipated, that people will feel less afraid? Will knowing that it has already been widespread make people feel better or worse?

It makes me feel better being under the impression that it’s looking like it’s been here awhile. But maybe I’m just a weirdo. It’s possible. ;) When it was here, and we didn’t know it, life was normal, i.e. no shut down. Yet it still impacted people, but silently. And I know there’s many of us that think, “I may have already had it...” And I don’t mean to discredit those that have died from it. Not being able to breath is an awful way to go, no matter who you are, healthy, old, diabetic, cancer stricken etc.

The bottom line is that unless the virus dies off with the heat, it’s here to stay. Now that we’ve flattened the curve, it seems to me like the best thing to do would be to learn to live with it. And sooner, rather than later.

nojos wrote:

Just thinking about any conversation between you two makes my head explode. The grammar, the rushian logic, the ignorance.

Did these guys really attend Ivy League Universities?

Makes me question the quality of those institutions.

Brojos...seriously, take this advice.

Every time you have an idea or question about Covid19 , please do us a favour and go and check with Drbeen Medical Lectures. He explains things in a way I am sure even a chimpanzee could understand. Then come back and post , and you can actually sound like you know what you are talking about, and understand.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrtd2wePvAl6RN_D-9jWVQQ

This is simple Brojos, the economy will be in a state of semi lockdown through mid 2021 until a vaccine can be widely disseminated. Yes essential businesses can reopen, but large gatherings will be highly discouraged until the vaccine or a viable treatment is available. So please make your peace with no olympics, and no sports until at least the fall of 2021.

Also, prepare for a major market meltdown when municipal and state governments start to default on their debts.

Vaccination has a reasonable chance to significantly help. Even a so-so vaccine will buy time to make a better one.

Real progress was made on SARS, it is such a shame the work was not carried on with more vigor after SARS disappeared.

There ARE important similarities between the flu and coronavirus but there are also significant differences. For one, CV has a proofreading mechanism to enhance replication fidelity. This does not mean it has not, or will not mutate, but it might mean a given vaccine will be useful for a longer time. Maybe.

It also means some antivirals will have less chance of working. It was shown, in SARS that ribavirin was incorporated during replication (good) but then excised (bad) by the proofreading enzyme...Its a devious foe.

Giles Corey wrote:

Flew Shots wrote:

I've had flu vaccine shots every year for more than 30 years. I am still alive, and I have only gotten the flu twice during that time.

I have never in my life got a flu shot and have never had the flu.

In over 60 years.

I won't be in line to take any Covid19 vaccine.

Same.

The Bill Gates Effect: WHO’s DTP Vaccine Killed More Children in Africa Than the Diseases it Targeted

Anyone defending the Bill Gates/WHO global vaccine program needs to explain this study: Mogensen et al 2017. Prior to 2017, neither HHS nor WHO ever performed the kind of vaccinated/unvaccinated (or placebo) study necessary to ascertain if the DTP vaccine actually yields beneficial health outcomes. The DTP vaccine was discontinued in the US and western nations in the 1990s following thousands of reports of death and brain damage.

… girls vaccinated with the DTP vaccine—the flagship of Bill Gates’s GAVI/WHO African vaccine program—died at 10 times the rate of unvaccinated kids.

....

For African nations, GAVI and WHO use DTP vaccine uptake to gauge national compliance with vaccine recommendations. GAVI can financially punish nations that don’t fully comply. The researchers suggested that the DTP vaccine is killing more children than the diseases it targets. It’s possible that millions of children are adversely affected. Although the New York Times and other Gates boosters will accuse me of promoting “vaccine misinformation”, this is a peer reviewed publication in a respected journal by the world’s most authoritative vaccine scientists describing catastrophic outcomes.

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/the-bill-gates-effect-whos-dtp-vaccine-kills-more-children-in-africa-than-the-diseases-it-targets/

fdtyujd wrote:

All the experts I have heard say that a vaccine will be created. How long it lasts is unknown however.

17 years after the original SARS breakout there is no vaccine. Covid 19 is a sister virus to SARS.

We have "vaccines" for the flu and tens of thousands still die every year.

No cure for the common cold after umpteen years of trying.

When all is said and done we're most likely going to have to reconcile ourselves to the fact that this virus is here to stay. Lockdowns aren't going to stop it.

When the second wave hits, places like NYC and Northern Italy where the virus has already hit hard will be relatively well off. Same with places like Sweden who gained herd immunity. The places which will be hardest hit will be the ones who locked down the most.

Book it.

Don’t worry I just had Covid-18 wrote:

This is simple Brojos, the economy will be in a state of semi lockdown through mid 2021 until a vaccine can be widely disseminated. Yes essential businesses can reopen, but large gatherings will be highly discouraged until the vaccine or a viable treatment is available. So please make your peace with no olympics, and no sports until at least the fall of 2021.

Also, prepare for a major market meltdown when municipal and state governments start to default on their debts.

You're missing the elephant in the room.

Yes, there will be a major market meltdown, widespread unemployment and economic catastrophe.

But that catastrophe will turn the tide of public opinion against lockdowns.

Wars are always popular in the beginning, and right now most people see themselves "at war" against the "invisible enemy". But when the costs of war start to outweigh the gains, and the comfortable status quo that people were willing to fight for is lost...all bets are off.

Economic fear will dwarf virus fear in the next few weeks....

It didn't and doesn't matter what the science says, millions of Americans will die if we don't shut down the economy to protect our poor! Are you that heartless and blind? Geez