Sweden reaching Herd Immunity... social distancing can only slow...

Buried in the story is that people are working from home, not going out as much, when they do restaurants are spacing people, etc. So there has been no official lockdown but the Swedes are taking steps themselves.

Russ Roberts of EconTalk asked followers in Sweden to report on Twitter. The responses indicate people are doing this on their own so no need to issue such orders.

The US also did a lot of social distancing before any governor stepped in.

Since the death from this virus seems to take 3-8 weeks the Swedish epidemiologist might regret making such a strong statement.

Ever been in a room where people smoke? When people smoke in any indoor area it gets completely saturated

Why would the virus be any different? Simply from breathing in a room the virus will be saturated in the air

It's pretty clear that it's aerosolized. There's a lot of evidence that almost all respiratory viruses are aerosolized to some degree

Anyway I don't really get the peoples opinion who are so gung-ho on social distancing

The only way that makes sense is if the hospitals would just be completely overwhelmed. But honestly what can hospitals do anyway? They seem to do more harm than good with ventilators. So what are we really Running Scared from. I think we have way more to lose and it's actually way more unhealthy all the social distancing and over reactions

Bad Wigins wrote:

Have a huge 3-day Metal Fest which will get 100,000 young people all in the same place. No rapes though! Sweden's a bit notorious for rapes at its metal fests.

And we are going to send a couple hundred super spreaders to make sure everyone gets it right?

But I do like the idea of exposing people. But lets be rigourous about this and make sure. you get your immunity. After you volunteer to be exposed, we can send in some doctors to spray infected droplets into your lungs in eyes every day for a couple days, and then in 3 weeks we can come back and let you out of your house. From reading this board we will have no problem getting enough people given how 99.9% will not die.

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

I guess you live in the States? Here in Sweden it`s time 23:36 now....the day is over for us ))

Stats are based on GMT not local time.:) But lets say it stays at 84. What does it mean that it was 172? Does it mean you are over the hump? Go look at the chart and see what the drop from 100 to 17 or the drop from 170 to 29 ment:)

Why are you so smarmy and combative? I don't see anywhere in JS's responses where he seems to be gloating or talking down to anyone. He lives in Sweden and seems to be more optimistic when he sees data, but so what. Yes, Sweden's stats are sorta weird. What is your constant badgering doing to make anyone's life better?

It really seems like several posters on this board have an emotional investment in case & death numbers. If those numbers go up, then their intelligence is somehow proven?

cringelord22 wrote:

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

Stats are based on GMT not local time.:) But lets say it stays at 84. What does it mean that it was 172? Does it mean you are over the hump? Go look at the chart and see what the drop from 100 to 17 or the drop from 170 to 29 ment:)

Why are you so smarmy and combative? I don't see anywhere in JS's responses where he seems to be gloating or talking down to anyone. He lives in Sweden and seems to be more optimistic when he sees data, but so what. Yes, Sweden's stats are sorta weird. What is your constant badgering doing to make anyone's life better?

It really seems like several posters on this board have an emotional investment in case & death numbers. If those numbers go up, then their intelligence is somehow proven?

+ 1 ! Information we get here in Sweden now is that the number of older people at intensive care is decreasing and therefore more will make it threw the IC. So right now we have a better situation when it comes to death rates even if more people got infected last days…..We seem to approach Heard immunity even if it will take at least a month more.

Hi Jan, As an American in Sweden...(IK Viking, Utby IK, Löplabbet...) agree with your assessment. Too many idiots posting in here with little or no knowledge of Sweden, our health system, our tax system, education system or anything else for that matter. Hope to discuss your training ideas in person when things calm down. We live in the most civilized country in the world. Just saying. Arthur

Okille wrote:

Hi Jan, As an American in Sweden...(IK Viking, Utby IK, Löplabbet...) agree with your assessment. Too many idiots posting in here with little or no knowledge of Sweden, our health system, our tax system, education system or anything else for that matter. Hope to discuss your training ideas in person when things calm down. We live in the most civilized country in the world. Just saying. Arthur

You are of course completely correct Arthur! I think I remember your name, I have a good memory like a horse, lol ! You were a good middle distancer I think? And we worked at the "löplabbet" running shoe shop together many years ago? We will chat about my great training system DANCAN after this pandemic is over.Cheers! :)

cringelord22 wrote:

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

Stats are based on GMT not local time.:) But lets say it stays at 84. What does it mean that it was 172? Does it mean you are over the hump? Go look at the chart and see what the drop from 100 to 17 or the drop from 170 to 29 ment:)

Why are you so smarmy and combative? I don't see anywhere in JS's responses where he seems to be gloating or talking down to anyone. He lives in Sweden and seems to be more optimistic when he sees data, but so what. Yes, Sweden's stats are sorta weird. What is your constant badgering doing to make anyone's life better?

It really seems like several posters on this board have an emotional investment in case & death numbers. If those numbers go up, then their intelligence is somehow proven?

Nothing combative. I am just asking why this dip is any different than all the ones that happened before? Why do you think a couple day trend is remotely meaningful when it hasn't been in the past? Anyone who has looked at the death stats has the rises and drops. The same thing happens in the US. The US dropped from 2600 to 1500 last week. That was great. But we are back up at 2300 this week. It is encouraging that we have shot up to 5k. It is discouraging that we are still over 2k.

Now it would be interesting to know why the stats are so janky. I sort of figure it some reporting issue but maybe 30% differences are normal.

And for reference Sweden is up to 131 deaths today and on pace for a new high. Do you think with a 50+% increase over the day before the Covid19 is now exploding? Obviously that is about as accurate as thinking that the drop the day before ment it was going away.

nO ONE IS THINKING IT WILL GO AWAY EASILY. We have to be patient and fight on ! But I THINK FROM NOW ON the Swedish figures will decrease until we reach heard immunity.

What a smug post. We don't need to possess intimate knowledge of Swedish culture (barf) to read the charts. Check Worldometer for yourself, oh exceptional one. Sweden is rocketing up the death charts, day after day killing off its citizens in greater numbers, by far, than its neighbors. Sweden, the exceptionally civilized country that is great at taking no measures to ensure that their most vulnerable aren't killed by a worldwide pandemic. Ghoulish really. Swedes are certainly smug, and are certainly great at building second-rate cars and airplanes, and at patting themselves on the back even during a generational failure during crisis. Is this how Swedes reacted to WWII as well? I thought so.

Okille wrote:

Hi Jan, As an American in Sweden...(IK Viking, Utby IK, Löplabbet...) agree with your assessment. Too many idiots posting in here with little or no knowledge of Sweden, our health system, our tax system, education system or anything else for that matter. Hope to discuss your training ideas in person when things calm down. We live in the most civilized country in the world. Just saying. Arthur

Bill C., you may want to learn to spell HERD by your next post.

There is also zero scientific consensus on what herd immunity even means with this particular virus. Your great leaders are experimenting on you and killing your most vulnerable citizens. Ghoulish.

Interesting thread. It seems only logical to be better safe than sorry. Sweden is rolling the dice against the prevailing thought of most others worldwide. Seems those boasting their low numbers just need to give it time as Sweden was hardly on the front line fighting this virus. It's getting around there a little late is my hunch. Many States in America have far better numbers than Sweden does against this virus while not trying "herd mentality", so what do their numbers really mean?

Noyankee wrote:

Interesting thread. It seems only logical to be better safe than sorry. Sweden is rolling the dice against the prevailing thought of most others worldwide. Seems those boasting their low numbers just need to give it time as Sweden was hardly on the front line fighting this virus. It's getting around there a little late is my hunch. Many States in America have far better numbers than Sweden does against this virus while not trying "herd mentality", so what do their numbers really mean?

We will see what happens if the second wave will hit the countries of total lockdown! I hope for the best but am not sure it will end good.

Agreed but I have no idea what people are referring to when they site the so called “second wave”? There is no known season to this virus. It’s one big hit that nobody yet understands, not America’s best, nor Sweden’s best. So why roll the dice? If herd mentality is, in the end, the best option then we can all go that route once it is confirmed. I’m in Florida so am not sure what “total lockdown!” is? We just play it smart.

Noyankee wrote:

Agreed but I have no idea what people are referring to when they site the so called “second wave”? There is no known season to this virus. It’s one big hit that nobody yet understands, not America’s best, nor Sweden’s best. So why roll the dice? If herd mentality is, in the end, the best option then we can all go that route once it is confirmed. I’m in Florida so am not sure what “total lockdown!” is? We just play it smart.

I think the real question is how long do we stay in lockdown? The world has been in lockdown for over a month now and the virus hasn’t seemed to burn itself out.

My concern is that we stay locked down until August and then we come out of lockdown and just start infecting each other anyway. However, now instead of having a strong economy to help deal with the pandemic we have to deal with a Great Depression and a pandemic at the same time-its a nightmare scenario.

Right now the game plan for many leaders seems to be basically “Stay put” and when asked “Until when?” Or “What kind of data do we need to see to start letting ourselves out” those same leaders don’t really have an answer.

I’m seeing our leaders too paralyzed to make any kind of decision because I think they know at the end of the day we have two real options (1) Wait an indefinite period of time for a possible vaccine-throw the world into destitution but save lives of some of our most vulnerable. However, like the flu vaccine, the COVID-19 vaccine may not be all that effective (2) Let people out, go to work, etc-people will die but 99.5% of the population will not die (of this at least). Herd immunity will be gained and the virus will most likely burn itself out.

Number 2 sounds like a logical choice to me and I think many leadership starting to realize this . I don’t like it either but I really don’t see an alternative

Noyankee wrote:

I have no idea what people are referring to when they site the so called “second wave”?

Agreed. There won't be a second wave. It's just one wave. How long depends how soon we will reach herd immunity.

Even with super strict containment and contact tracing, a single tiny flareup can baloon quickly (see Singapore). And even if you contain it (like Korea or Taiwan), when you're going to open up your country, you will get it again.

Sweden and the US are leasing the way. Reach herd immunity without overwhelming hospitals.

50% of Sweden's deaths have been at nursing homes people just waiting to die. 90% of deaths in Europe are over 70. 96% are over 60. This kills people who are sick and old.

Sweden btw has had at least 20% of ICU capacity available this entire time. So much for flattening the curve bull.

Also natural immunity is superior to vaccine. You need vaccination rate of 90% to reach herd immunity vs 60 to 70% that they are quoting for natural immunity.

yes, great points. we do need to get back to moving the economy forward. some industries it seems can work properly under social distancing/masks, etc. it's going to get very dark economically soon which will further crush America as well as China. There will be no winners economically if the World leader goes into a depression.

I do believe they will too and I am very glad the world has this control group that is not locking people indoors to compare against. We can argue about daily numbers but their curve per 100,000 is pretty much the same as others that have locked down hard. This country and others like Israel are showing a different way and what is interesting now is that European countries coming out of lockdown are bending the guidance towards what Sweden has done all along.

I think many despise Sweden’s approach as they are so dogmatic as to not entertain another way or that their original premise was wrong. To those that fall into this bracket, I say we are all learning here as this is novel, keep your mind open.