Sweden reaching Herd Immunity... social distancing can only slow...

What? Sweden is reporting 16,755 cases as of now, on Johns Hopkins. 2021 deaths.

donairs wrote:

What? Sweden is reporting 16,755 cases as of now, on Johns Hopkins. 2021 deaths.

The key stat is mortality rate versus mortality rate for the last 20 years!

In new statistics Sweden is doing very good compared to other countries. Their mortality rate has only increased by about 10%!

Let's face it countries count deaths differently and it's never clear if someone has comorbidity what actually killed them. Just Google it there's a great stat that shows the mortality rate increases of every country in Sweden is actually doing great. guarantee there's no Spike this is it George is going to reopen and I guarantee they do great

You do realize that today isn't over yet. That 84 has time to climb:) I notice how you aren't talking about how deaths are up 500% over the past 3 days when they climbed from 29 on april 19th to 172 on the 22.:)

...their mortality rate is up 10% from normal, when most people are staying inside at home? Doesn't sound good. Auto accidents and cancer are not contagious. Viruses are. Yes, I guess we will see what happens in Georgia.

MidFootStriker, those 'new statistics' sounds like a cherry-picking expedition. Would not trust that.

As I said in another thread, you can't look at 84 deaths today, vs. 185/172 the previous two days and claim victory. Sweden's stats are up and down large amounts on a daily basis. What is going on with their stats collection? They've gone from 20 to 180 or more and back in days. And they've had over 2,000 deaths from this already, despite only doing hospital testing, and 200/million have died. When you have a population that is 32% 55 and over, you're going to get a lot more deaths from this kind of strategy, despite the numerous advantages Sweden had, and has squandered, such as relative isolation, near neighbors with many fewer cases and deaths per capita, 1/3 and 1/5, and low population density in mostly rural areas outside of Stockholm.

global economy... can't stop common viruses... wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Countries that tried to stop the virus are only slowing down the inevitable

Bottom line is yeah some measures were necessary to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed

But if you think you're not going to be exposed to the virus you're fooling yourself

It's already ubiquitous in the biosphere. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out between Sweden who is approaching herd immunity and Taiwan who tried to prevent the virus from entering the country

The Swedes are going to look like geniuses when this is all said and done. As the entire country world shutdown they kept their economy going, didn’t try to become a total police state and will probably get the added benefit of becoming the first country to reach herd immunity-then start return to some kind of normalcy.

Might even be the ascendency of Sweden as the major European power as the rest of Europe still voluntarily shuts itself down for God knows how much longer.

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

Well......our former infection specialist Johan Giesecke still advice our immunologist in charge. Giesecke has told he is quite sure we will reach herd immunity in the last days of next month. Today 751 new cases and the most it has been in a day, but the amount of deaths decreased to 84 today from 185 and 172 the two days before. Looks like we have "plateaued" as our experts say . Maybe it will go up and down like this for a while and then drastically reduced....we hope so. We keep on ( most of us) washing our hands with soap and keep social distancing.

You do realize that today isn't over yet. That 84 has time to climb:) I notice how you aren't talking about how deaths are up 500% over the past 3 days when they climbed from 29 on april 19th to 172 on the 22.:)

I guess you live in the States? Here in Sweden it`s time 23:36 now....the day is over for us ))

energeticlotuseater wrote:

global economy... can't stop common viruses... wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Countries that tried to stop the virus are only slowing down the inevitable

The Swedes are going to look like geniuses when this is all said and done.

yeah I think people are being naive about all this. Let's face it we're all going to be exposed and 99.9 nine nine percent of us are going to be fine

I think the odds of there being some miracle cure outside of a vaccine is really remote. We've never had a super successful drug for Respiratory viruses. Especially within the next year.

The swedes are going to have better immunity because they didn't run scared. I really don't get the strategy of thinking that people aren't going to be exposed clearly it's pretty ubiquitous in the population

Are you really going to live in a bubble for the next year or two and then who knows if the vaccine will be 100%

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

You do realize that today isn't over yet. That 84 has time to climb:) I notice how you aren't talking about how deaths are up 500% over the past 3 days when they climbed from 29 on april 19th to 172 on the 22.:)

I guess you live in the States? Here in Sweden it`s time 23:36 now....the day is over for us ))

Stats are based on GMT not local time.:) But lets say it stays at 84. What does it mean that it was 172? Does it mean you are over the hump? Go look at the chart and see what the drop from 100 to 17 or the drop from 170 to 29 ment:)

The "herd immunity" line of thinking is similar to letting Nazi Germany invade your country and the people do nothing as all the jews are killed. Once the jews are killed everything will be ok.

Stopwatcher wrote:

New York Times reported New York 20%. Study in New England show 30%. Just Google search and you will see multiple studies

I imagine that the spread of coronavirus in New York is over representative, but it is good news. Still can't find anything from New England.

Huapango wrote:

The "herd immunity" line of thinking is similar to letting Nazi Germany invade your country and the people do nothing as all the jews are killed. Once the jews are killed everything will be ok.

It's much more complicated than that analogy captures.

Huapango wrote:

The "herd immunity" line of thinking is similar to letting Nazi Germany invade your country and the people do nothing as all the jews are killed. Once the jews are killed everything will be ok.

That’s a bit of a stretch

I hate to break it to you but one datapoint is not a trend. Best treat the low deaths today as an outlier until you get a few more low days in a row before making any conclusions.

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

We keep on ( most of us) washing our hands with soap and keep social distancing.

Only your old and weak people should be doing that. The rest of you aren't going to be crowding the hospitals when you catch it. In fact the safest thing to do for your quarantined elderly is to take steps to accelerate the spread among the young and strong. Have a big festival, then three weeks later you're all immune, and the elderly are safe.

Have a huge 3-day Metal Fest which will get 100,000 young people all in the same place. No rapes though! Sweden's a bit notorious for rapes at its metal fests.

energeticlotuseater wrote:

Huapango wrote:

The "herd immunity" line of thinking is similar to letting Nazi Germany invade your country and the people do nothing as all the jews are killed. Once the jews are killed everything will be ok.

That’s a bit of a stretch

Yes. But just a bit.

Bad Wigins wrote:

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

We keep on ( most of us) washing our hands with soap and keep social distancing.

Only your old and weak people should be doing that. The rest of you aren't going to be crowding the hospitals when you catch it. In fact the safest thing to do for your quarantined elderly is to take steps to accelerate the spread among the young and strong. Have a big festival, then three weeks later you're all immune, and the elderly are safe.

Agreed. We have to think what is the long term game plan here? We all can’t live in a bubble for the next year or two (assuming we can even get a vaccine by then). The unfortunate reality is that there may be some young people that pass away due to this virus when we open up society but 99.9% of them will NOT die.

At the point it’s like ripping off a band aid. We know what we have to do and if we keep civilization shut down we will be devastating hundreds of millions of people world wide.