Sweden’s maverick approach to covid management

We had another Sweden thread that got filled with disinformation, so I moved over here & surprise! A conversation broke out.

interested reader wrote:

I've spent a chunk of time today looking carefully at fatalities data. Sweden is currently ranked 14 out of all countries in terms of fatalities per million people, with about 18 (as of 30 March). This is roughly 1/10 the value in Italy (205) and Spain (181) but ahead of the US (12) and Canada (3), and on par with Portugal and Denmark (both 16, not so far behind UK (26) and Iran (35). Their fatalities are growing at a typical rate of 20-30% daily, still in the exponential growth phase.

I don't think I'd use Sweden as a good example to follow if I were a thinking person.

On the contrary, Sweden is the perfect example

If they fare no differently than the average country then we’ll know that lock down was not required.

Sweden population density: 57/sq mi

Lombardy population density:1100/sq mi

Nuff said.

Reality and Truth wrote:If they fare no differently than the average country then we’ll know that lock down was not required.

Lock down wasn't necessarily required, if there was a good testing, isolation and contact tracing regime in place early. South Korea and Taiwan didn't need to impose wide-scale closures because they came to grips sooner using less costly measures.

Readers may be interested to look through this very interesting article that covers a wide range of considerations;

I’m concerned that South Korea & Taiwan have fewer lessons in the sense that they are smaller, less-diverse nations that relatively recently emerged from dictatorship, whereas France & Germany are taking proper measures easier to imitate.

Something bad is brewing in Sweden.

Just comparing it with Norway, a country of similar size and similar culture, right now they have same same number or reported cases, but Sweden has 5.6x the number of deaths. Sweden also has a mortality rate of 4.8%.

Either only old people are getting infected in Sweden, or they have a lot more cases than Norway.

Stupidity kills wrote:

Something bad is brewing in Sweden.

Just comparing it with Norway, a country of similar size and similar culture, right now they have same same number or reported cases, but Sweden has 5.6x the number of deaths. Sweden also has a mortality rate of 4.8%.

Either only old people are getting infected in Sweden, or they have a lot more cases than Norway.

CFR is a poor measure due to differences in testing. It may be a year before we know the true CFRs.

YMMV wrote:

Stupidity kills wrote:

Something bad is brewing in Sweden.

Just comparing it with Norway, a country of similar size and similar culture, right now they have same same number or reported cases, but Sweden has 5.6x the number of deaths. Sweden also has a mortality rate of 4.8%.

Either only old people are getting infected in Sweden, or they have a lot more cases than Norway.

CFR is a poor measure due to differences in testing. It may be a year before we know the true CFRs.

Yeah, CFR wasn't central to what I said, but thanks for posting, it was really helpful for you to add something it was clear I was already aware of.

YMMV wrote:

Odd how there is no mention of Japan, which has taken the same approach with success.

You were wondering about Japan...

From the other thread. There was an early rash of older folks succumbing to the virus which has since been contained

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

New fresh info coming in from my country Sweden. Out of now 180 people died because of Corona, 75 women and 105 men, 75 of them was age 80-90 ,42 of them was age 70-79, 41 of them was age 90 + . This means totally 88 % of the died was 70 years old or more.....

Now the goverment has made a ban on visits to old-age homes and will increase the testing of staff. So far our goverment and medical experts have the situation under control without total lockdown.

still here? wrote:

From the other thread. There was an early rash of older folks succumbing to the virus which has since been contained

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

New fresh info coming in from my country Sweden. Out of now 180 people died because of Corona, 75 women and 105 men, 75 of them was age 80-90 ,42 of them was age 70-79, 41 of them was age 90 + . This means totally 88 % of the died was 70 years old or more.....

Now the goverment has made a ban on visits to old-age homes and will increase the testing of staff. So far our goverment and medical experts have the situation under control without total lockdown.

They have 6x more deaths than Norway. That fact alone is enough for this situation to be an issue in Sweden.

Yes the other thread is infecting this one like a virus!

Positives have doubled in Sweden over the past week. Swedes are testing aggressively. So, the total number of positives is not as important. But the rate of positives is moving in a bad direction and indicates that community spread may be exceeding the capacity of their testing and isolation approach. I suspect that Sweden will have to go into lockdown by the end of the week.

Stupidity kills wrote:

They have 6x more deaths than Norway. That fact alone is enough for this situation to be an issue in Sweden.

Here’s an interesting cut at the numbers. Sweden has 24 deaths per million population which is better than Netherlands, Belgium, UK, Switzerland, and obviously Italy and France. Marginally worse than Portugal, Denmark and Austria. Norway much better positioned.

I, for one, am rooting for the Swedish approach to work, i.e. work just as well as other countries that have implemented more stringent lockdown models. The virus is here to stay; that cat is out of the bag and the world is going to have to learn how to live with it without shutting everything down. If Sweden can demonstrate that we can continue to function with no significantly worse performance in fatalities, that would be a good thing.

I wish there was a way World O Meter can do a finer cut at the data and cross tab it with age. Mortality rates vary widely by age band, and Sweden is on the higher end of things there with a median age of 40-41

Remember that different countries are on different timelines. The FT analysis does a good job of showing this.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Stupidity kills wrote:

Remember that different countries are on different timelines. The FT analysis does a good job of showing this.

1. Number of cases (new, existing, etc) does nothing for me. Some countries test more than others. Some don’t want to, others can’t afford to. Whatever reason. Its no surprise that the US is at the top of that list as we are going to be in best position to test

2. New death comparisons mean nothing unless they do it on a per capita basis.

The Financial Times really ought to know better than to portray numbers in just absolute terms

Meh. Let me know when you find the data to fit your confirmation bias.

still here,

You are aware that this is not a true statement?

- “The world will have to learn to live with the virus without shitting everything down.”

For one thing it’s in the future, for another our current style of living is new & we know it’s not sustaining itself.

Swedens testing is very poor compared to Norway, thats why they the reports of infected have been low, but they are really spiking now, whereas the numbers in Norway shows a very good trend.

There is also a big lag in the system from the Swedes bad attitudes, starting to show now. Last day 59 Swedes died, the total number in Norway is 40, increasing by 4 the last day. Yes it is 88% more inhabitants in Sweden, but the difference is nevertheless appalling.