Hey genius - the incubation period is 5 days on average but people wait another 5 days after experiencing symptoms before going to the hospital and then stay in the hospital an average of 20 days before dying. So you wouldn’t expect the lockdown to have an impact on deaths for 30 days, give or take. So if new deaths stop growing as quickly in 10 days, it will show that the lockdown has succeeded in flattening the curve. But if new deaths are still growing or just stable, it also suggests that the lockdown needs to be more strict.
New cases (not deaths) should be impacted after ~2 weeks of quarantine, and, in fact, they have been. But if fact new cases don’t start heading south in another week or so, it will be a sign that the lockdown needs to be tightened. Whenever cases peak, Italy will have at least another month of quarantine, probably more.
For those following at home, the lockdowns in the US have been less strict than in Italy - they are not even nationwide yet. And the evidence in Italy suggests that even what they are doing is not enough. That means that we have at least another two months of quarantine from whenever all 50 US states enact a lockdown. In other words, we will probably still be lockedown come June.
In other words, settle in, get comfortable. And don’t blow that $1,200 check all in one place.