Older folks around here, imagine if the Coronavirus had hit us in 1977

Hey poster, how does every thread turn into a corona-19 virus U.S. equity market combo thread. It seems that was O.P.'s plan all along. Most likely someone on letsrun payroll.

1) U.S. equity markets and gross domestic product are not the same. thing. U.S. g.d.p. has been limping along at 2% or 3% for awhile. That is hardly great.

2) If you truly believed U.S. economy were greatest economy in the world, the economy could be turned off for a month, element the virus and back in business. That's what China did.

3) I do not like fraudulent threads like this. You are probably O.P., poster. Start a thread not about corona and not about politics then by page three wrap them all together.

zoomx83 wrote:

If you get the regular flu that's out there, it's a .4 percent chance you'll die. Maybe .04, something like that.

With coronavirus, it's 4% that you'll die.

NO, NO, NO. Wrong. This has been thoroughly debunked. That anyone still believes it is the heart of the problem.

In 1977, both politics and media were a bit different. Things were less sensationalized. The 3 tv networks and newspapers would not have kept going around saying "4% death rate" after the researchers proved that wrong. They would have little to gain from that, and much to lose, and no social-media mob to shift the blame to. Today's media are much more easily forgiven for stoking and exploiting hysteria.

Carter was president in 1977. If this had happened then the USA probably would have ceased to exist. There would have been civil war. States closing borders. Trade halted. Riots in the streets. People were still protesting forced busing at the time.

Bad Wigins wrote:

zoomx83 wrote:

If you get the regular flu that's out there, it's a .4 percent chance you'll die. Maybe .04, something like that.

With coronavirus, it's 4% that you'll die.

NO, NO, NO. Wrong. This has been thoroughly debunked.....

Let's recap. You, BadWiggins, shouted and whined and moaned and threw out all these numbers, that there woudn't be thousands of cases, and it would be gone soon.

Turns out you were so wrong it's incredible, and you haven't ever explained why, after such crazy whining and lying, anyone should ever take seriously any of your claims in the future.

Son of Sam was a bigger threat in 1977.

I'm not the OP - and I don't like fraudulent posters like you! You're not very informed either - China's economy hasn't rebounded one bit! This is going to be a Global Depression...duh.

This was the greatest economy in the world; high GDP, low unemployment - go look it up...duh.

Mainstream economists are predicting unemployment levels at 20%! - Great Depression levels! That'll sink a robust economy faster than you can say "coronavirus!"

,

One again (because you're obviously trolling )...the government blew up the economy because of ridiculous fears of a virus!!!?

Jest sayin wrote:

Son of Sam was a bigger threat in 1977.

Disco was an even bigger threat than that.

it would have had a less severe impact. in that era we did not have "just in time medical ", second, far less people so much more social distancing at onset so RATE of infections would be lower. third, medium family financial position far better, fourth, america was a manufacturing super power, now we are a customer for china .china has embargo on many medical supplies right now.

Precious Roy wrote:

I was snowed in during the Storm of the Century in New England during 1978. As a kid, it was amazing because we got to play in the snow all day. But we were out of school for about two weeks before they could dig out all the snow. We just dealt with it. A neighbor had a 4x4 Jeep and did trips to the grocery store to get everyone supplies. We were used to having crappy network TV and played lots of board games.

Cool story bro. Changed my life.

older runner wrote:

it would have had a less severe impact. in that era we did not have "just in time medical ", second, far less people so much more social distancing at onset so RATE of infections would be lower. third, medium family financial position far better, fourth, america was a manufacturing super power, now we are a customer for china .china has embargo on many medical supplies right now.

This is all true, but you're assuming nothing would be shut down. Think about if manufacturing was shut down? Or if business people weren't allowed to go into the office. You'd be talking about a major depression.

For as bad as it is now, its pretty close to business as usual for anyone who can work remotely. If you completely shut off any office work/manufacturing, things would be way, way worse for the economy.

It would have been Spanish Flu part 2.

Also don't forget the blackout of NYC in '77.

I was born in '83, but lived in CLE for years. We had killer storms in the '80s and '90s and droughts too (1988). Even as a little kid I knew things were changing once we got the internet in '95. I lived through the '93 Storm of the Century (March 1993) and a big Veteran's Day storm in November '96 (185,000 without power in CLE for a week) but it was nothing like the blizzard of '77 and '78. There were back to back years of cold winters/blizzards in the late '70s.

I'm an Xennial--not quite GenX but also remember a time before the internet. Rotary phones, typewriters and card catalogs.

I lived in a commune in the Oregon woods back then, we woulda been fine,

77-78 where I was, we didn't get above 32 degrees for months on end. It was like the arctic. Overall, the world was just tougher, more capable of surviving.

We wouldn't have noticed an outbreak like this. There were good flu years, and bad flu years. This would have just been a bad flu year.

Look into this dude stat wrote:

77-78 where I was, we didn't get above 32 degrees for months on end. It was like the arctic. Overall, the world was just tougher, more capable of surviving.

We wouldn't have noticed an outbreak like this. There were good flu years, and bad flu years. This would have just been a bad flu year.

Bullshit. Normal flu deaths are in the 20-50k range. When the death toll is 500-2million, everyone would have noticed it. Go look at polio for how people noticed epidemics long before the WWW.

Pappy wrote:

I think as a whole this would of been handled a lot better.

this would HAVE been handled a lot better

Show some respect to your language.

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

Look into this dude stat wrote:

77-78 where I was, we didn't get above 32 degrees for months on end. It was like the arctic. Overall, the world was just tougher, more capable of surviving.

We wouldn't have noticed an outbreak like this. There were good flu years, and bad flu years. This would have just been a bad flu year.

Bullshit. Normal flu deaths are in the 20-50k range. When the death toll is 500-2million, everyone would have noticed it. Go look at polio for how people noticed epidemics long before the WWW.

And as of right now, we have just over 20K globally dead from coronavirus, with the hotspot now New York, and moving to CA.

I don't think the warming weather is going to slow this down, but if it does, total deaths might just be under the 50K span for a normal flu death season. Add a low normal flu death season to a coronavirus outbreak, and it's a bad season.

The death rate for cars is 1.22 per 100 million miles driven. That is a reasonable level of risk.

The death rate from Coronavirus is roughly 1 in 100. That is not a reasonable level of risk for most people. If 50% of the U.S. population over the next year catches the virus then about 1.5 million will die, far greater than your 35,000 per year from car deaths.

I'm not sure where your .00003% figure comes from. My calculation is (1.5million deaths) /(300 million population in the U.S.) = 0.5% chance of dying, or 1 per 200 of the population.

To be fair there have not been 1.5 million COVID-19 deaths in the US, not even close. If you divide the number of COVID deaths in the US right now which I believe is around 1,000 by the total population of the US which is around 350 million I believe you will gets around that .00003 % number that is getting thrown around. The 1.5 million death mark is a worst case scenario speculation.

Actually looking at the facts and not worst case scenario speculation car accidents currently kill x30 more people a year in the US than COVID-19.