Insanity? wrote:
Public health experts may ultimately be proven wrong,
If you dig just a little deeper than the surface of mainstream TV, newspapers and their websites, you'll find there IS no consensus among public health experts. There are opinions held by authorities, but that's not quite the same thing. Most importantly, the experts, until recently, never claimed to know just how many people were actually infected in the epidemics that already happened.
That is the one crucial piece of information you have to have to form any kind of intelligent strategy. It tells you whether and how a quarantine could work. It tells you whether the disease is really deadly enough to be worried about. It tells you how long it would take for it to run its course with no intervention, too.
Papers on the total infection numbers in Wuhan started coming out more than a week ago, and their conclusions are a bombshell: nearly 20% of the city's inhabitants got infected, enough that the virus could no longer increase and burned itself out. That's why it went to 0 so fast. Those who didn't believe they "contained" it were right, but not because the Chinese were lying - turns out they didn't need to contain it at all! Why bother, when the bad cases they were flipping out about in the hospitals represented a small fraction of 1% of infections? Total death rate: ~0.1%. Just like you-know-what. All they needed to do was treat who needed treatment and reverse-quarantine the vulnerable. Now that we know that, we should not be wasting resources on anything else, or robbing ourselves of resources in the first place by letting the economy collapse.