Millions of people will die. Death rate will be lower than what's currently reported but everyone will get it in the next year or so and a substantial number will die. There won't be a vaccine.
Millions of people will die. Death rate will be lower than what's currently reported but everyone will get it in the next year or so and a substantial number will die. There won't be a vaccine.
If it mutates into a new strain then it wont be covid 19 anymore will it?
Of course viruses mutate. Otherwise eventually we'd have a vaccine for pretty much all of them.
Primo Numero Uno wrote:
The 7aji wrote:
Ya i think it will be endemic too. From now on we'll have a flu, cold, and covid-19 season annually and that's really sad
My God people don't understand how viruses work. We will come up with a vaccine a year to two years from now and the virus will then be eradicated. It blows my mind how many people here think the Flu is a single virus. There are hundreds of viruses that cause sickness. If there was a single Flu virus everyone could get vaccinated and the Flu would be eradicated. But there are constantly new strains and experts due their best to predict which known strains will be potent each year.
Covid 19 will eventually be eradicated either by everyone getting it and developing immunity or by a vaccine. People will get tired of this BS in a couple of weeks and accept that this is just another virus. No worse than many others we have lived through and things will go back to normal. If they had never given this a scary name and started fear mongering no would have known this was any different than any other flu season.
Irony: the guy asserting other people don't understand how viruses work and then writing a paragraph about vaccines proving HE has no idea how vaccines or viruses work.
Delicious.
Jogger Hobby wrote:
OP is probably correct. Notice there are ZERO issues in the southern Hemisphere right now where it is warm. This thing is already blown over in China and SK about as fast as it started. By July it will be a memory/meme.
Ugh... Australia?
And Singapore is quite warm...
Check back in 2 weeks - we're just a little behind (and not testing much) down here......
This is going to go one of two ways:
1) What we are currently witnessing is the first wave/exposure of COVID-19 in the US. Tens of Millions will be infected and many will die. I don't think this virus will stay at it's 3% death rate (or whatever the death rate is at the moment, I think world wide it is around 3% based off of those who have been confirmed SO FAR). Let's just for the sake of it say it'll be between 1-3%. Let's say 40-50% of the US population contract the virus. 131-164 million people contract the virus. 1.3-4.9 million die (131 x low end of death rate - 164 x high end of death rate).
2) Probably our optimistic/best case scenario:
China come out and announced this thing in late Nov/Early December right? Ok and that's with a oppressive government. My bet is that this thing had been around in China for months before that before their govt finally had to say something about it. People in the US were reporting the exact same symptoms of this virus around the same time period this came out in China and we thought it was only in China. Those people were tested for the flu since it's almost the exact same symptoms and it came back negative. Those people pass it around, no one was testing for Corona (look how hard it is right now for test to actually happen, nothing was being tested back then especially when it's flu symptoms in flu season). Its possible that a good percentage have already had it but and the stuff getting tested now are only 2nd wave of it. I'm not saying that's what happened, but it's entirely possible isn't it? There are infectious disease doctors that think this is likely.
If that's the case, then the current death rate we are seeing is most likely pretty overestimated as there were many many cases that have already happened that were never diagnosed. By the same logic, there are also a deaths that occurred due to the virus that aren't recorded because it was never confirmed etc, but most likely aren't enough to sustain the current death rate given the fact that the flu was about as deadly as normal this year and those undiagnosed Corona deaths would have probably been lumped into the flu deaths since it's symptoms are very much like the flu. Anyways regardless of that, we could be close to the virus peak already, and the amount of cases we are seeing isn't necessarily it spreading (since it already has been here and been spread) but rather just us finally being able to test enough to get numbers and diagnose it. Deaths and cases will be added as tests are widely administered, but for the most part the worst is behind us and this slowly fiddles out.
#2 is most likely our best case scenario... I would don't know which of the two it will be, and we will only know as time goes on. But I think we all can agree in hoping that scenario 2 is what will end up being the case.
we know from the cruise ships what the death rate is so your #2 scenario is a pipe dream. #1 is more likely, the hope is eventually enough people will have gotten it and be immune so that will slow the spread. (Heard immunity)
Death rate will go up as hospitals reach max capacity. Keeping hospitals below capacity by slowing the spread is the best bet to save lives right now.
Death rate will also drop if treatment is discovered. Some antiretroviral drugs we already have will probably work we just need to figure out what ones work.
It’s funny how people look to China and South Korea and think that’ll solve it. They are practicing the most sophisticated containment ever seen on the planet. I guy I know left his hotel. The police phoned him! And asked him where he was going! They are tracking everyone! The police can pick up people’s via CCTV that has detected they have a high temperature! The question is, how long can they can keep it up? When they stop, will it flare up again?
All you can do, is slow the spread and protect the vulnerable. It will not die out. It will not disappear.
And we need to shoot panic buyers in the face.
Eventually it will mutate into a retrovirus and infect every human on the planet and alter the human genome making us susceptible to every germ. Then we will all perish.
Bumping for a few idiots, and a few rational people.
Reminder: No vaccine, and still 3K dying daily in the US (when most are not leaving the house much).