Precious Roy wrote:
Walmsley's main advantage is that he is a climber. Running all the hills on the course will not be an issue for him. Walmsley's big disadvantages are that he just isn't that fast and isn't a marathoner. Unless the weather is warm, the pace at the front of the pack will probably be @2:08-9. It is the trials and everyone will be pumped up. Rupp will want to try to separate early so he is in a pack of 3 down the stretch instead of trying to test his fitness the last 2-3 miles against 5-6 guys. That means Walmsley will be going through 13.1 about a minute slower than his half PR. That is going to put him in a place that his ultra running does not take him. He will be running in totally uncharted waters while trying to keep up with surges in the pace. That is just too much to ask from anyone on their first marathon. And Walmsley's training won't help. He has been doing a lot of volume, but he is already good at that. The 1k repeat workout is really promising, but he also needs to do longer intervals and long tempos. That much quality is inconsistent with the high volume training he is doing. He really should have raced 2-3 marathons before the trials. If he had a few marathons under his belt, I would be more optimistic. But he is basically trying to have one of the best marathon debuts in US marathoning history during the trials. He just isn't that kind of runner.
So, I think he stays with the pack through about mi 17-18 and then fades badly over the last few miles. 2:14 and change, finishing in the high teens.
Why would a guy with a 10000 PR a minute or faster than most of the other runners feel the need to separate early? If he can't can't wait until last 2-3 to make his move, he might as well not bother with the Olympics.
As has been posted before, the trials are not being run in the Sierras and guys with better 5/10K times are going to be just as good, if not better, than Walmsley in the hills on the Atlanta course.