Am I prepared for a sub 2:49 marathon?

What’s your longest run this cycle? Your LR you listed is only 2:12, but your race is almost 40 minutes longer.

I’d recommend a LR of 22-23 at around 7:30-7:45/mile. That will prepare you for such a long race.

Otherwise, the overall mileage looks okay but you have very little quality stuff.

I think you look pretty good for a 2:49, but I don't think that your tempo run was a tempo run!

It sounds like it was pretty much a time trial. You can't be running much faster than 35:40 for 10k if you are 'only' aiming for a 2:48.

If you can run sub 35 for a 10k, then you should be aiming for better than 2:48.

I agree that you're likely to be in better shape than 2:48. But a lot of things can go wrong in a marathon, especially a first marathon. So 2:48 sounds like a good estimate.

Looks like you're in 2:45 shape easy as long as you don't screw up nutrition or pacing. One workoutbi like to do 6 weeks out is to run 24 miles in my goal time for the full marathon. If u can do 24 miles in 2:45 in training, doing the full distance in the same time in a race is achievable

gilceltic wrote:

10k tempo at 35:39(could have kept that pace for another 2k),

Thanks!

doesn't sound like a "tempo"

you are probably right, on race day I could probably hit sub 35 even go around 34:30(based off of my 35:39 feeling) , but as I said this is my first marathon so don't want to risk pushing it too hard, if I'm feeling great later in the race I will push on but many more marathons to come

Your easy miles seem too fast. 7:10 easy/steady vs 6:26 goal pace. I think you could benefit from easier sessions being closer to 8~ and saving some more for the harder sessions.

I just had a 18mi long run with 13 at Mp or 6:15, most of my easy runs are 8:00-8:30 pace.

Agree with the above that if you've got the long runs in, you're in way better shape than 2:50.

I'd test it with a structured long run - 3mi warmup, 5 x 3mi at goal pace with 0.5mi recoveries, 2mi warm-down for 22mi total.

easy should be slower wrote:

Your easy miles seem too fast. 7:10 easy/steady vs 6:26 goal pace. I think you could benefit from easier sessions being closer to 8~ and saving some more for the harder sessions.

I just had a 18mi long run with 13 at Mp or 6:15, most of my easy runs are 8:00-8:30 pace.

I just ran a 2:50 last summer (almost no speed work, just hitting the long run pretty hard, and getting a number of weeks up to 70), and I was going to actually say the opposite and same thing. I think some of the easy runs should be slower, but I think the OP needs at least a n easier run a week at sub 7 pace.

OP, do you have any race recent race results to go on? First marathon? Lifetime PRs?

You're probably pretty close, based on the week of training you posted, but I do think you should be mixing your paces up a bit more. You're doing the bulk of your runs in kind of "meh" pace.

My first marathon was a 2:43. In looking at your training your easy days are too hard and your hard days are not hard enough. I'd be interested in hearing what your repeat mile times are coming in at, probably 5:15 - 5:20 would be appropriate for your goal. If you want to race a full marathon at around 6:30/mile pace you need to have a tempo run that is a little faster than this for 8 - 10 miles and your recovery days should be more like 7:45 or 8:00/mile. Improvement in running comes from the cycle of stress followed by recovery. As a 2:48 marathoner you aren't really recovering when you are running 7:10/mile

Lenny Leonard wrote:

What’s your longest run this cycle? Your LR you listed is only 2:12, but your race is almost 40 minutes longer.

I’d recommend a LR of 22-23 at around 7:30-7:45/mile. That will prepare you for such a long race.

Bad advice.

If you're in 2:48 shape (I think you are), don't run a LR at this pace, which will feel easy and will prepare for a long and slow race. Steady LRs, not easy LRs. I'm sure you've done some 2:30 runs (like, 20 at 7:00-ish), in addition to your MP LRs.

Anyway, I've run 2:48 with similar buildup to yours.

runderun wrote:

Looks like you're in 2:45 shape easy as long as you don't screw up nutrition or pacing. One workoutbi like to do 6 weeks out is to run 24 miles in my goal time for the full marathon. If u can do 24 miles in 2:45 in training, doing the full distance in the same time in a race is achievable

This seems waaaay too hard!

Say I'm aiming for a 2:40 finish (6:06 pace), you think I should do a long run of 24 miles in 2:40 (6:52 pace)?? That would be far too taxing.

24 miles at 45sec slower than goal MP will wreck people.

gilceltic wrote:

you are probably right, on race day I could probably hit sub 35 even go around 34:30(based off of my 35:39 feeling) , but as I said this is my first marathon so don't want to risk pushing it too hard, if I'm feeling great later in the race I will push on but many more marathons to come

I think you misunderstood them. The pace was too fast to be a tempo.

runderun wrote:

Looks like you're in 2:45 shape easy as long as you don't screw up nutrition or pacing. One workoutbi like to do 6 weeks out is to run 24 miles in my goal time for the full marathon. If u can do 24 miles in 2:45 in training, doing the full distance in the same time in a race is achievable

This is too much. It’s great stand alone, but for most athletes the recovery for this is too much, so it kills a good 1-2 weeks of training for the sake of one training session which is not effective.

You can 10 @ MP + 40. sec, then 5 around MP, and 3-5 at 1/2 Marathon pace instead which is very demanding but not a knock out punch.

otter wrote:

runderun wrote:

Looks like you're in 2:45 shape easy as long as you don't screw up nutrition or pacing. One workoutbi like to do 6 weeks out is to run 24 miles in my goal time for the full marathon. If u can do 24 miles in 2:45 in training, doing the full distance in the same time in a race is achievable

This is too much. It’s great stand alone, but for most athletes the recovery for this is too much, so it kills a good 1-2 weeks of training for the sake of one training session which is not effective.

You can 10 @ MP + 40. sec, then 5 around MP, and 3-5 at 1/2 Marathon pace instead which is very demanding but not a knock out punch.

Sorry, I didn’t read your post correctly. I thought you had meant to run 24 at 2:45 pace. I still think it is too quick but not for some, so it depends on the runner.