Casey Clinger is home. Who will be faster next year? Him or Nico Young?

Clinger took 24th his freshman year. I would expect Young to be in that neighborhood and maybe a little better based on HS 3200m times. Will be hard for Clinger to equal his freshmen year p place with less than a year to train after the two years off training. Clinger may have gotten in a little running but not much if any.

blamb61 wrote:

Clinger took 24th his freshman year. I would expect Young to be in that neighborhood and maybe a little better based on HS 3200m times. Will be hard for Clinger to equal his freshmen year p place with less than a year to train after the two years off training. Clinger may have gotten in a little running but not much if any.

Drew Bosley (top freshman this year) was 22nd at NCAA. He was 23rd at NXN last year.

Correlations are not perfect

So many variables

Hshshshshj wrote:

blamb61 wrote:

Clinger took 24th his freshman year. I would expect Young to be in that neighborhood and maybe a little better based on HS 3200m times. Will be hard for Clinger to equal his freshmen year p place with less than a year to train after the two years off training. Clinger may have gotten in a little running but not much if any.

Drew Bosley (top freshman this year) was 22nd at NCAA. He was 23rd at NXN last year.

Correlations are not perfect

So many variables

Agree, will depend on how Young responds to the training next year.

M.C. Confusing wrote:

do the maths wrote:

Nico was faster than Clinger was in HS and hasn't taken two years off to get fat while telling people how they should listen to some dude who found a couple hundred pound gold plates in the middle of the forest that only he could read.

Yeah, those two years off really slowed down Conner Mantz.

I think Mantz redshirted a year after the mission before competing.

blamb61 wrote:

M.C. Confusing wrote:

Yeah, those two years off really slowed down Conner Mantz.

I think Mantz redshirted a year after the mission before competing.

I think Mantz did not redshirt. He graduated HS in 2015. Missed the 2016 and 2017 seasons while on his mission then competed in 2018.

Thinking ? wrote:

blamb61 wrote:

I think Mantz redshirted a year after the mission before competing.

I think Mantz did not redshirt. He graduated HS in 2015. Missed the 2016 and 2017 seasons while on his mission then competed in 2018.

Mantz definitely redshirted. Graduated in spring of 2015, went on his two year mission, and got back in the summer of 2017. Redshirted XC 2017, ran both indoor and outdoor track in 2018, and ran his first XC season in fall of 2018.

Jayordon wrote:

Thinking ? wrote:

I think Mantz did not redshirt. He graduated HS in 2015. Missed the 2016 and 2017 seasons while on his mission then competed in 2018.

Mantz definitely redshirted. Graduated in spring of 2015, went on his two year mission, and got back in the summer of 2017. Redshirted XC 2017, ran both indoor and outdoor track in 2018, and ran his first XC season in fall of 2018.

Makes sense. Thanks for the facts.

The conditions were garbage and Nico soloed that 14:52 while Anderson had more people near him towards the end, shows the dominance in that race

Anderson's NXN speed rating was 201, Nico's was 205. A point is worth 3 seconds so Nico would have run about a 14:45 in last years conditions.

NicoNau wrote:

Anderson's NXN speed rating was 201, Nico's was 205. A point is worth 3 seconds so Nico would have run about a 14:45 in last years conditions.

Yet he ran 15:04 in last years conditions so no speculation necessary.

We’re talking about Young in his current shape, genius. Young at NXN this year was significantly better than his 2018 shape and that’s a pretty objective fact

Hshshshshj wrote:

blamb61 wrote:

Clinger took 24th his freshman year. I would expect Young to be in that neighborhood and maybe a little better based on HS 3200m times. Will be hard for Clinger to equal his freshmen year p place with less than a year to train after the two years off training. Clinger may have gotten in a little running but not much if any.

Drew Bosley (top freshman this year) was 22nd at NCAA. He was 23rd at NXN last year.

Correlations are not perfect

So many variables

It's so hard to predict how kids will do at the next level. Some people just don't manage the higher mileage well.

Some guys get in shape fast after their missions and some don't and there is the risk of trying to get back too quickly and getting injured. Eyestone took 8th NCAA just a few months after getting back from his mission. Henry Marsh was in the Olympics several months after his mission (he came back having gained some weight I remember reading as did Mantz). Hopefully he will come around quickly. Aiden Troutner (2017 NXN champ) will be back off mission in the summer of 2020 sometime also but will have even less time to get in shape. I would think he would most likely redshirt. Easton Allred signed with BYU (2018 5th NXN, 2019 38th NXN as a senior [battled injuries]). Not sure what his mission plans are.

In addition to XC 2020, XC 2021 will be very interesting for BYU. Will have Mantz (3rd 2019 NCAA XC), Clinger (2015 & 2016 NXN champ, 24th 2017 NCAA XC as freshman then mission), Troutner (2017 NXN champ then mission), Garnica (42nd 2019 NCAA XC), Jacklin (29th 2019 NCAA Regionals), and MacKay Johns (8:51 3200m HS in 2017, then mission, red-shirted this XC season I believe). Jacklin has shown a lot of potential and if can keep healthy can do more that what he was able to this year. Clinger, Troutner, and Johns should all be fully back into shape by then and could be really good in addition to Mantz and the other folks mentioned.

To answer the question. Nico Young will 100% be faster next year then Casey Clinger.

GLifeV wrote:

To answer the question. Nico Young will 100% be faster next year then Casey Clinger.

What if he was able to stay in decent shape in Japan? He could be starting from a much fitter place than someone like Mantz.

Based on this I don't think he's been running much. But give him 11 months until late November and he'll be alright.

Dyestat reader wrote:

https://www.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=567831

Based on this I don't think he's been running much. But give him 11 months until late November and he'll be alright.

I think you're right, Clinger has longer to get back in shape compared to others who get back from their missions in the summer so he could be coming around by then. One thing to consider though. Assuming he red-shirts indoor and outdoor track (very likely). Running next cross season would mean that Clinger would have used two years of cross eligibility before ever competing in track and field.

I think it makes sense to redshirt and then start indoor next year with 3 full years ahead of him.

Though come November, if Clinger can help the team contend for a national title it would be hard to keep him out.

Based on his pictures from the mission, he didn't put on more than 10 pounds or so. He's going to pick up right where he left off.

If the guy who graduated 3 years ago doesn't come out on top he should be embarrassed.