How would the top 7 HS runners fare at big boy nattyś?

5 High School Craig Virgins would finish last in the NCAA meet. 13:50 for 3 miles is about 14:25 for 5k.

But I bet the Arkansas men thought the same thing prior to the race today. On paper, they're just as good or better than this year's top 5 HS guys, and they probably figured top 20 was a gimme. But things hardly ever go swimmingly for all of your top 5 in the same race. I mentioned composure in a previous post. When runners are outclassed by many others, as would be the case for the HS guys in the NCAAs, it's very easy to have a subpar race. If two of those top 5 HSers were able to step up to the 10k and exceed expectations by getting hoovered along with the high level of competition, I bet there would be three others who would bomb due to freaking out by being buried in such a deep field or by misjudging their pace - even if they could run a 10k just as well as a 5k. We've probably all had that feeling of being under the cosh when we were in races that were just enough out of our league to make us hurt early - you know, the kind of races where you finish thinking, "I can't understand it! I can do a solo tempo faster than that!" So even with the out-of-the-gate ability to handle the 10k on grass, a few seasons of high-level college racing goes a long way toward developing that composure to mete out your effort and stay competitive without getting flustered, struggling and slowing. I'm betting over half of the top HS guys would blow their cool and this year's "dream team" would be in the bottom 3 teams at NCAAs.

Forgetting how precocious Virgin was in HS? He did run 13:58 for 5k on the track and was an endurance-oriented XC runner who was one of the few who could have stepped right up to the college national level as a HSer. Five of those guys would have the potential to score under 250 points at NCAAs. No, they probably wouldn't challenge for the win. I wrote that as hyperbole!

But maybe I should have said "5 Dathan Ritzenheins." We know how good Ritz was vs. the world when he was in HS. He ran 13:44 and was even better at XC, with a bronze at World Jrs. He had plenty of experience against a level of competition that most HS runners never come close to facing, and he rose to the challenge. I can't imagine he wouldn't have been an NCAA All-American as a HSer, and I therefore think 5 HS Ritzenheins would challenge for the NCAA title. But what are the odds that there are 5 guys like that in the next 20 years, let alone this year? Right. I'm still thinking this year's top 5 would place no better than any college team with five 8:10 / 14:10 types would place - upper 20s at best.

Just a personal anecdote here:

I ran 14:57 in HS a ways back and was 9th at NXN. I remember running really well through 5k at Wisco invite freshman year ~15:10 the absolutely dying to something above 25 and struggling to run 32 something over 10. 17yr olds can crush 3200-5k controlling race from the front but would not fare well doubling the distance against men in the mud.

I’m not 100% confident they’d get last though, the last place teams sucked.

Girls would fare better. It’s only 6k and the current crop of HS girls is insane.

Almost every guy in the race has run 8 flat for 3k and sub 14 for 5k yet some of them had to finish over 200th place. None of the HS runners have run that fast so they would definitely finish over 200th place.

Here are the : Katelyn Tuohy, Claire Walters, Brooke Rauber, Zofia Dudek, Katelynne Hart, Taylor Ewert, Marlee Starliper, Sydney Masciarelli, Sydney Thorvaldson, Margot Appleton, Brynn Brown Charlotte Bednar, Abby Vanderkooi, Sofie Matson, Fiona Max, Kate Peters, Tatum David, Karrie Baloga, Kendall Kramer, Taryn Parks, Corie Smith

My top 7 would be (in order):

1. Katelyn Tuohy - no brainer, might even be better at 6k than 5k, runs very well in cold and mud, could be top 3 in peak shape, practically guaranteed All-American

Predicted finish: 20:00-20:10, 4th, 4th team scoring

2. Zofia Dudek - emerging star, does well in distance but has amazing kick, has run well in cold and mud

Predicted finish: 20:25, 14th , 14th team scoring

3. Katelynne Hart - complete beast, very versatile, amazing kick

Predicted finish: 20:30, 20th, 17th team scoring

4. Marlee Starliper - very strong distance runner from mile up, runs very well on xc courses, solid kick

Predicted finish: 20:35, 30th, 23rd team scoring

5. Brooke Rauber - exceptional kick, used to mud and cold

Predicted finish: 20:35, 31st, 24th team scoring

6. Claire Walters - exceptionally good at distance (especially cross country), very good in cold and mud

Predicted finish: 20:40, 36th, 28th team scoring

7. Sydney Masciarelli - reigning FL champ, not running as well as last year though

Predicted finish: 20:45, 45th, 36th team scoring

Let me get this right, you are predicting a team of this year's HS girls would have won the entire meet by 14 points (82 to 96 for Arkansas)??? Lay off the crack, not good for you.

13:55? That is most of the last 50 guys in the race. And since the current high schoolers haven't run that fast, they would probably finish around 255th in the race.

A good comparison for the girls would be chmiel and vanderleghe, both of whom are true freshmen and finished 22nd and 25th respectively. I do not think it is a stretch that girls like hart/dudek/starliper could run in that range on a good day.

If we stuck 1 high school guy in each regional, none would qualify. But let's look at how the worst 7 individuals placed.

Camren Fischer DNF

Ryan Kutch 241 (14:04/29:20PR)

Ben Drezek 224 (29:06PR)

Ezekiel Kibichii 217 (23:31PR)

Nick Randazzo 190

Alec Basten 166 (13:53PR)

George Kusche 165 (3:39/7:57PR)

The first 5 true first year American HS guys from Hs class of 2019 scored 292 points which would have been 9th place team I think. And they had a full year of maturation and training. And this is if you chose the five guys perfectly a year ago.

You can check my math but that’s what I got for a quick check of the results.