No statistically significant improvement in marathon results since Vaporfly introduction

Isn't it the case that the majority of sub 2:10 performances are from lower ranking Kenyans? Do we know for sure that lower ranking Kenyans have access to Vapourflys bas a general rule?

Also, in order to have more sub 2:10 performances, there presumably needs to have been a good chunk of runners in the 2:10-2:12 bracket waiting to come through. Is this the case? This is a tough bracket to be in as it is hard to make a living professionally unless even quicker, yet is is still very fast. In addition, will a lot of these runners not already be tied to shoe contracts from other brands?

Sub 6:00 wrote:

I think this is an absence of evidence rather than evidence of absence thing.

If you want to do this sort of analysis, it might be better to look at guys in the mid to high 2:20s. If major marathons (get a decent sample size) are seeing more men in 2019 versus 2016 under 2:30 (or 2:25 or whatever), then I don’t see it as easily explainable by anything other than the shoes. This group has almost universally adopted the VaporFlys by now (in the Chicago ADP almost everyone was wearing them, and the 4% seemed pretty common in Boston), and is too slow for alternative explanations like sponsorship, changes in testing protocols, or the timing of the Olympic Trials, to hold much weight.

^ this.

Take a look at the UK power of 10 rankings for the marathon:

Men sub 2:30 in UK:

2016: 105

2017: 98

2018: 98

2019: 157 (so far)

That's pretty hard to explain if it isn't down to Vaporflys. Half marathon times sub-70 show a similar trend. 2018 is likely on the low side, due to London marathon being very hot that year

Bump because this thread looks more ridiculous in hindsight.

We're up to 293 record-legal sub-2:10s so far this year. 2014 only had 193. Use the worldathletics.org site for a complete list, alltime-athletics is behind.

https://tonireavis.com/2019/12/13/sub-210-bonanza-in-2019/

Care to comment nv4?

pathfinder wrote:

Care to comment nv4?

Yep, seems that Next% is truly smashing records. Looking at the explosion of the sub-2:30s in marathon I also bought a pair of Next% for next road season. Hopefully they will bring me huge PR in half marathon.

However I still feel that 4% model did not significantly increase sub-X:XX times. They are obviously good shoes but compared to Next% they are in different league

What's now interesting is that people will likely experience a placebo effect simply from the narrative of increased performance. The date is too obvious at this point.

PIK wrote:

What's now interesting is that people will likely experience a placebo effect simply from the narrative of increased performance. The date is too obvious at this point.

Agree

Makemegetfast wrote:

^ this.

Take a look at the UK power of 10 rankings for the marathon:

https://www.thepowerof10.info/rankings/

Men sub 2:30 in UK:

2016: 105

2017: 98

2018: 98

2019: 157 (so far)

That's pretty hard to explain if it isn't down to Vaporflys. Half marathon times sub-70 show a similar trend. 2018 is likely on the low side, due to London marathon being very hot that year

Vaporflys are a plausible suggestion, but I don't think you can say it's the only one.

For one thing, sub 2:30 runners were overwhelmingly wearing Vaporflys in 2018, even if it wasn't quite as easy to get your hands on them. Everyone in my club had them. So I doubt that explains the 2018-19 bump.

Weather can also have a big impact, as these faster runners aren't randomly distributed through different races, which would tend to even out the effects of weather overall. Good runners cluster in a handful of big time races like London, which in 2018 had its hottest ever temperatures. In 2019, London had great weather. That alone could explain a pretty big swing in the stats.

I also think that there has in general been a big renaissance in competitive amateur running in the last few years, especially at the marathon distance. For instance, CIM has in just a couple of years become possibly the deepest marathon in history (if we're talking number of sub 2:30 runners). That didn't happen just because the same group of people suddenly got better shoes. A lot more adults have decided to train a lot harder. There are probably a lot of things that go into this. I think Strava is one big contributor. It used to be that if you were a post-collegiate runner, you were pretty much on your own. Now, even if you do most of your miles solo and you don't have a club, you can still feel connected to the larger running community. You feel like other people are invested in what you're doing.