RandomRamblesThinking wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
How can Hasay compete with Kosgei when Kosgei warms up with Hasay's PR and the proceeds to run ANOTHER 23 miles?
All she can do is try her best to be 100% and hope that Kosgei has an "off" day. That is how Des Linden won Boston and how Shalane won New York. Des and Shalane would get obliterated by top Kenyan/Ethiopian women in distance races in nearly every scenario. It is only when the exception occurs (abysmal weather/super slow sit and kick) that things like a medal or win can happen for elite US distance runners in a marathon, or even 5k/10k for that matter.
Hasay's 5k PR is very misleading as well. She never ran to her full potential on the track and it seems like the marathon is the only race distance where she can make linear improvements from. Her PR was from 2014. While 15:28 is an elite time, it isn't world class by any means. That's probably as fast as Katelyn Tuohy could run if you put her on a track instead of NXN in December. The best Womens 5000m runners in the world are running in the high 14:20s. Running faster than 15:20 for their 10k pace etc. I bet if you put Kosgei on a track to run 10000m, she would without a doubt run sub 30 (which would be like lapping Hasay twice in the same race). However, even with that much talent, there were races like the WC where Infeld and Huddle finished 3rd and 4th at the 10000m, even though on paper they weren't on the same level as some of the top Kenyans/Ethiopians.
It is extremely unlikely for a runner like Hasay to compete with someone on a completely different planet like Kosgei, but not necessarily impossible.
I agree with a lot that you say but don't think 15:28 is an elite time. That is about 1:20 off the world record. So we are talking about a close to a 14:00 for the men's. Definitely not elite.