Shelby Houlihan the gold medal favorite?

]For context on Houlihan and her kick.Lausanne 2018: 3:57.3 1st 61.4 final 400 29.6 final 200 14.3 final 100Prefontaine 2018 3:59.0 1st 59.8 final 400 29.7 final 200 13.3 final 100 Compared to just 2019: Hassan in Zurich: 3:57.08 1st 57.5 final 400 28.2 final 200 Can't find final 100 or get it in slow mo replay cause the camera shows Dibaba lol. But that is a faster final 400, in a faster final time, with a faster final 200 than when Shelby ran 3:57 or 3:59 so you can comfortably say it's probably a faster 150/100. Also for reference Stafford closed in a 59.7 final 400 and a 12.9 final 100 to finish in 3:59.5. That's a faster close than Houlihan at Pre when she ran 3:59. Stafford ran well but no one would describe her last lap as nearly unparalleled explosiveness. Muir in London 2019 3:58.25 1st 57.4 final 400 28.8 final 200 13.6 final 100 though looks like she eases up in the last 10-20m. This is a way better final lap than anything Shelby has ever done, with marginally faster final 200 but 0.5 slower final 100 enroute to a faster final time than Shelby at Pre 2018.

zxcvvcx wrote:

Houlihan won USA xc in dominating What she showed last year was a kick in the last 100-150m that was more explosive than just about any kick you've seen among women. It reminded me of Webb's kick in June-July 2007.

So literally it isnt more explosive than just about any woman I've seen given that in one year there's a bunch of examples of similar or better closes. I'd keep going back through years to find other races with crazy finishes but I really cant be bothered given one season's worth of results puts Houlihan in context easily enough.

Not saying Houlihan isn't fantastic. Not saying she doesn't have a great kick. But let's not put her on this ridiculous pedestal from a) just two races b) two races that while impressive, fade when compared to plenty of other results. Also not picking on you zxcvvcx. Just tons of people on this board seem to think that Houlihan has the best kick in the womens 1500 when we have nothing to suggest that is in fact the case.

The overlong season may yet demand more casualties. We will now in Doha.

Maybe the superlative time trial of the Bowerman TC men indicates that their women will be at their best in Doha. Still, it's important to note that even if Houlihan gets to her best 2018 shape, it is not clear if this would be enough against Muir, Hassan, Kipyegon. And what if someone runs already the third lap sub 60 like in Rio and London 2017? Or if Tsegay starts with 2:06 for the first 800m? Who knows who'll have the most left in such races?

Jo72 wrote:

The overlong season may yet demand more casualties. We will now in Doha.

Maybe the superlative time trial of the Bowerman TC men indicates that their women will be at their best in Doha. Still, it's important to note that even if Houlihan gets to her best 2018 shape, it is not clear if this would be enough against Muir, Hassan, Kipyegon. And what if someone runs already the third lap sub 60 like in Rio and London 2017? Or if Tsegay starts with 2:06 for the first 800m? Who knows who'll have the most left in such races?

Someone like Tsegay with great fitness but not a big kicker who's willing to lay it all on the line early is a great spoiler to have around. Would love to see her do exactly as you suggest. Nothing like forcing everyone else's hand so they have to make an early decision just what they think they're capable of and commit. And unless Tsegay or other frontrunners back off the effort in the 3rd lap (always a risk), prevents the race from degenerating into a dull sit-and-kick affair.

This kind of race would both work in Simpson's favor and for others' with the strength to thrive in three-round championships or where smarts are required under fire, as well as tell us just how good Houlihan and her kick really is in a barn-burner after rounds.

Plus this type of race plays to Kipyegon's strengths, who's at her best when the race starts breaking apart midway through and can sustain a kick from a long way out off a hard pace. Both that and such an overall race scenario would be the ultimate test for Hassan too. She couldn't nap early on, would be challenged to race well tactically throughout, and we'd see how well her kick this year stacks up against the other top guns when all the marbles are on the line in a tough race, assuming she hasn't peaked too early.

Also, Klosterhalfen might be likely to follow right on Tsegay's heels and provide support for a hot pace, which could work in both their favor. Muir's fitness seems to be on a new level after finishing vet school, and while her tactics and judgment seem to have improved this year, I can't recall if they have been put to a real test this year against truly top-flight competition.

Go Tsegay! I would also be cheering for her to hang on if/when others falter under duress as well. Always fun to see what people are really made of, or else dropping like flies otherwise. :-) Hard to give this type of race scenario any better than a 50/50 chance, though, given past history in global championships, but keeping my fingers crossed.

Tactical errors or doesn't want it to hurt? wrote:

Always fun to see what people are really made of, or else dropping like flies otherwise. :-) Hard to give this type of race scenario any better than a 50/50 chance, though, given past history in global championships, but keeping my fingers crossed.

I agree. Nothing says "this is going to be fun to watch" like having someone like Tsegay take it out hard from the get-go. It's always interesting to see who emerges from the carnage, and who doesn't.