Shelby Houlihan the gold medal favorite?

I would say there's a very good shot, but it will also still be very difficult. Shelby is one of the few that can run sub 4 AND close really really fast, but nothing is guaranteed.

What is Klosterhalfen running?

Houlihan is not at the same level this year, as last.

It's hard to say what level she is at now that she hasn't raced in almost two months. She also has only raced international competition once this whole year.

It seems still Open what distance Hassan and Koko are running. Likewise question Marks for muir and kipyegon's health.

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A very good shot wrote:

I would say there's a very good shot, but it will also still be very difficult. Shelby is one of the few that can run sub 4 AND close really really fast, but nothing is guaranteed.

What is Klosterhalfen running?

1500/5000 double. Reh is doing the 10000 for Germany.

schiklgruber wrote:

Houlihan is not at the same level this year, as last.

Get out of here with that nonsense. She's just as good. Just started later in the year because Worlds is later. What has she done to show she isn't as fit?

As the double is impossible, both Hassan and Klosterhalfen will announce at short notice whether they start in the 5000m or the 1500m. I still hope Hassan will run the 1500m/10k.

With Dibaba out, the top 5 are probably Hassan, Muir, Kipyegon, Houlihan, Klosterhalfen. Tsegay, Arafi and Embaye have run fast times in paced races but they seem rather weak finishers in championship races and overall were better early in the season. So before them I'd put Simpson, Chebet and Debues-Stafford who are all good finishers.

If Hassan goes for the 1500, she must be considered favorite. Muir had an injury, also Kipyegon, otherwise I'd put them next (or first, if Hassan doesn't run). For Houlihan it is almost impossible to tell; she was good, not great in Stanford and this was almost 3 months ago. Klosterhalfen might opt for the 5000 (where she has better chances, I think) but the Zurich race showed that she is in good shape, can finish faster than before (although not quite as fast as the best) and she would be a contender in a fast race. Simpson is always dangerous in championship style races although got clearly dropped in Zurich. Debues-Stafford has raced a lot and improved a lot but I don't think she is quite up there yet, even in a slowish race there are at least 3 who'd outkick her (like Muir, Houlihan, Kipyegon)

Jo72 wrote:

As the double is impossible, both Hassan and Klosterhalfen will announce at short notice whether they start in the 5000m or the 1500m. I still hope Hassan will run the 1500m/10k.

You are right I was wrong, it's just that she got nominated by Germany for both distances. I assume no other athlete had the limit for 1,500 or 5,000, apart from Granz/Klein and Klein/Reh who are also nominated for the 1,500 and 5,000. I doubt that they would take away a legit spot just because Koko needs more time to decide.

Jajszbxh wrote:

schiklgruber wrote:

Houlihan is not at the same level this year, as last.

Get out of here with that nonsense. She's just as good. Just started later in the year because Worlds is later. What has she done to show she isn't as fit?

How do you know this, she never races!

This will be interesting. - Remember Hassan will be presenting after an exhausting 10000m event - if she is to win that with the caliber of her opponents, she will be certainly fronting up in the 1500 in a deleted state. - If you take that devastating edge from Hassan it breaks it up for the others. I actually like Muir for this one.

Muir was my favorite earlier this season, after that finish in London I thought she clearly had the best combination of the ability to race fast overall and finish fast. Now with her setback by a minor? injury and Hassan's mile WR and devastating fininishes in both DL finals, I am not so sure.

Hassan is really in a dilemma. The 10k is probably her weakest event and it comes first. And Ayana (despite big question mark about fitness) is there and Obiri, Tirop, Gidey. All who double will be weakened to some extent although they are certainly strong enough that it will not matter much for the heats.

Still, the 10k/1500m would be unique, especially if successful, so I hope Hassan tries it although it will probably be harder than 10k/5k.

If hassan races she wins. Last year she ran in a very tight and draining 5000m DL final before driving over night to Brussels and still only got beat by a totally fresh Muir and Houlihan and still ran 3:59 for 3rd.

If she does the 10,000, that's on Saturday 28th. The 1500 heats are on Wednesday 2nd, semis 3rd, finals Sat 5th. That's three days full recovery before the heats which for someone as good as Hassan will really be easier than a normal workout. Ditto semis. Then another day off Friday, and by the time she gets to the final she will have had a whole week. I'm not a big fan, but just think that unless Muir is close to 100% then dont think anyone else is good enough to stop her.

Re: Houlihan. If she doesn't medal fire Jerry. Dibaba out, Kipyegon just had a baby and then an injury, Muir missed half the season to injury. Hassan aside, she's the only big name who hasn't lost a massive chunk of the season to injury. If she can't medal with that advantage, then she's thrown away a season of prize money and top level race experience. Let's not forget, Houlihan absolutely exploded onto the scene last year but prior to that wasn't anybody internationally. Compared to the likes of Kipyegon, Muir, Hassan, etc who have been running and winning Diamond Leagues and winning global medals for years, Shelby has is relatively inexperienced. That showed in Brussels last year when she let a suicidal large gap form on the 3rd lap and left it too late against someone as good as Muir, and in Pre this year where she did the same thing with Muir and Kipyegon. She was arguably fit enough to win both races but executed poorly. Experience helps.

Houlihan did hide a lot from the testers by not participating in any races. If she is still not able to come through in doha it would be a big problem for her

I agree wrt Hassan. While in Zurich the stronges opponents didn't race, both Zurich and Brussels were extremely strong (2:33 last km would be very fast in a 1500m race, actually WR pace...), so she seems the clear favorite. Not so clearly in the 10k where she lacks experience and despite her world class HM does not seem to be mentally as strong in the longer distances.

Idk what's up with Houlihan. In her breakout year 2018 she raced a lot and while she also made some mistakes, she had a few very good races, incl. DL wins and an AR. This year she only raced at Pre and USA's, and while she was good there it seems almost impossible to tell how the will fare against a real world class field on top their game.

Seems like between injuries and running other events all of the favorites going into this year have question marks next to their names. Maybe this is Jenny Simpson's year.

Jajszbxh wrote:

schiklgruber wrote:

Houlihan is not at the same level this year, as last.

Get out of here with that nonsense. She's just as good. Just started later in the year because Worlds is later. What has she done to show she isn't as fit?

+1

She ran 3:59 this year just like she did last year, won USA's in 4:03 with a big close, and handled the 5k double at USA's just like last year in controlling fashion. All while purposely trying to be at her best in September instead of June when she ran the 3:59. And now she's got another month TWO MONTHS of training under her since USA's, and it seems it has been a healthy two months. I'd say she'll be ready to go.

Houlihan is still not at the same level this year, as last

How could anyone know which level she is on if she hardly race against major competitors? We cannot know before worlds. Same with Frerichs.

If Houlihan is in 2018 form she is certainly a medal contender but Hassan should still be considerably stronger.