These posts make me laugh. Just cause Houlihan and Stafford came out of nowhere relatively speaking, y'all thinking sub 4 is just a natural barrier that anyone can cross. Equivalent times (1206 IAAF points) would be like a men's 3:32 1500 or 3:49 mile and like a womens 5000 time of 14:38.
7 American women all time sub 4 and then suddenly 5-7 women are going to break it in the next couple years? Even if half of them only, that's a 50% bounce. I don't think you appreciate how hard sub 4 is. 7 women have broken 4, but 45 have broken 4:05. Perhaps more telling, there have only been 35 sub 4 performances by Americans all time while there have been 242 sub 4:05 performances. It is increasingly more difficult the faster you go.
If you look at Stafford this season, the most recent woman in the world to break 4, she has a) been very consistently close to the mark, and b) beaten Purrier on every time of asking this year. Stafford's outdoor 1500s/mile chronologically not including slow national champ races, 4:01.2, 4:00.4, 4:02.0, 4:17.9 mile (IAAF equiv is a 3:59.7 1500), 4:00.2, 4:22 mile (equiv 4:02.5), and then finally 3:59.59 in Zurich. She leisurely front ran 4:12 then 4:09 to win Canadian champs though that doesn't tell us anything.
*That* is what knocking on the door looks like.
"Purrier and Johnson are knocking on the door." Okay, let's see how they're knocking.
Purrier's 1500s this year: 4:08.5, 4:02.3, 4:09.7, 4:13.3 (en route to 4:30 mile), 4:08.59. For context - when Purrier ran 4:02.3 in Rome, Stafford was over a second ahead of her, and also beat Purrier by 8 seconds (4:22 vs 4:30) in Birmingham.
Sinclaire Johnson's 1500s this year:
4:13.3, 4:18.28, 4:09.5, 4:12.3, 4:05.98, 4:10.43, 4:03.72.
That is nowhere near knocking on the door. 4:03.72 to 4:00 is a massive leap. She isn't knocking on the door, she's looking at google maps trying to find what street the door is on. Johnson is a 1998 baby though, Stafford/Purrier both 1995, but even comparing Stafford aged 21 vs Johnson aged 21 Stafford who ran:
4:08.4, 4:07.4, 4:04.9, 4:04.5, 4:08.5, 4:03.5, winning slow Canadian Nats in 4:12.
No one was looking at 21 year old Stafford and saying "oh yeah, that girl is knocking on the door of sub 4."
Another poster said Schneider, what? She's done one 1500 this year in 4:08. She had the fast Monaco mile 4:20, but again, fastest mile race of all time possibly (8 women sub 4:20) and she finished 3s back of Stafford and 9th. She is also a 1991, so is arguably in her prime right now. She probably needs to get her 5000 under 15 too to have the strength to sustain sub4 speed for 4 laps.
Shannon Osika? Her season again less impressive than 21 year old Stafford yet she is 26. Season marks: 4:14, 4:06, 4:09, 4:08, 4:04, 4:04, 4:12, 4:07, 4:04. She's looking good and consistent, but need to find a lot to go sub 4:01 let alone sub 4.
Elise Cranny: brah? Hasn't broken 4:05, which we established, has been broken 200+ times by Americans, and we talking about her being on the edge of sub 4?
Daniella Jones (CO): I'm done. Season results: 4:20, 4:07, 4:09, 4:12. Her 5000 PB is 15:46. Her 1500 PB is 4:07.
Rebecca Mehra: please I want whatever you're having! **She has only broken 4:10 twice this year** dear God. You really that impressed by a 30ft net downhill road mile? I'm cringing for that poster.
Get a grip on reality people. Sub 4 is hard. Doesn't mean these women won't run it, but frankly it would not be surprising whatsoever if none of them ever made it.