2020 Boston Marathon Cut Off Predictions

kkeleher wrote:

First time trying to register, but only 3:36 (3:06:36) under qualifying time. Very frustrating to know I have to wait until next Monday to register, and hope there are spots.

Whether your 3:36 is good enough i another conversation. But there will 100% be slots available when registration opens next week. No way it drops 5+ minutes in 1 year.

I have a feeling he's thinking of 2019.

5kPace wrote:

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

I read somewhere on RR that it says 30,000 with 80% being from qualifiers, which would put field size around 24,000.

Also I actually got a go ahead from work so there's a good chance I might actually register on Wed.

Any link on that? No field size has been announced from BAA to date.

Meant to quote this... I have a feeling he's thinking of 2019.

5kPace wrote:

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

I read somewhere on RR that it says 30,000 with 80% being from qualifiers, which would put field size around 24,000.

Also I actually got a go ahead from work so there's a good chance I might actually register on Wed.

Any link on that? No field size has been announced from BAA to date.

That was my source

evandmiller wrote:

5kPace wrote:

Any link on that? No field size has been announced from BAA to date.

Meant to quote this... I have a feeling he's thinking of 2019.

per the article

Q. How many people can run it?

A. The 2019 field size was announced in the summer of 2018. As with most recent editions, the field size is around 30,000, and about 80 percent of entries are reserved for time qualifiers.

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

evandmiller wrote:

Meant to quote this... I have a feeling he's thinking of 2019.

per the article

Q. How many people can run it?

A. The 2019 field size was announced in the summer of 2018. As with most recent editions, the field size is around 30,000, and about 80 percent of entries are reserved for time qualifiers.

It’s going to be 2020 next year...

Its2020 wrote:

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

per the article

Q. How many people can run it?

A. The 2019 field size was announced in the summer of 2018. As with most recent editions, the field size is around 30,000, and about 80 percent of entries are reserved for time qualifiers.

It’s going to be 2020 next year...

I didn't read the article in 3...2...1...

Even the quote says 2019... WAS.... the article is from Sept 4, 2019. Literally the 3rd line of this thing is the date BEFORE the pretty picture.

reeding is hard wrote:

Its2020 wrote:

It’s going to be 2020 next year...

I didn't read the article in 3...2...1...

Even the quote says 2019... WAS.... the article is from Sept 4, 2019. Literally the 3rd line of this thing is the date BEFORE the pretty picture.

And even the article states that the field will be "around 30,000".... does that mean 27,000... does that mean 33,000? No no one knows because no announcement has been made. It was a general assumption by Runner's World. Now... On September 4th of LAST YEAR the BAA made an announcement that the field would be a firm 30,000 runners. They have done no such thing this year.

What's funny, if your internet savvy, is that the comments attached to the article are from LAST YEAR. All Runner's World did was they took the article from last year, changed a couple data points like the BQ Standard, and republished it. Hardly rocket science to figure out.

A note to those above that think 80% of the field means 80% of those registering in the next two weeks will be a bit disappointed. 30,000 usually translates closer to 23,200 registrants. Another 800 that are in the race are by other means (invite, gift, charity, race sponsor, local towns) that happened to run a BQ time (although not necessarily a cutoff time) in the process. The 23,200 will also include all ten year entries that are already in which gets to the approx 80% number

Of course all that changes if they bump the field size upward.

Squeakers hold out hope.

Also: Never trust Runner's World. If it's not direct from the BAA it's not worth a wooden nickle.

Think he meant 3 min 24 sec under.. must have a 3:10 BQ standard

Fine, I mistyped. 03:24 under the 3:10:00 qualifying time.

Just trying to help. If the cutoff is -3:30 I wouldn't want you to think you were getting in.

How much of an impact do we think Berlin had on the Boston cutoff last year? As a refresh, two Berlin Marathons (2017 & 2018) were good for Boston 2019. Rough estimate, you're probably looking at north of 10,000 BQs total between the two years. For this year, only Berlin 2018 is good (Berlin 2019 is past the registration dates.). But the catch with that is when Berlin 2018 was run, the new Boston 2020 standards hadn't been released yet so they were all pretty much running to BQ-5 to the old standard. I think this caused a HUGE drop in the BQ standard that may lead to a normalized cutoff for this year.

WaitingGame wrote:

How much of an impact do we think Berlin had on the Boston cutoff last year? As a refresh, two Berlin Marathons (2017 & 2018) were good for Boston 2019. Rough estimate, you're probably looking at north of 10,000 BQs total between the two years. For this year, only Berlin 2018 is good (Berlin 2019 is past the registration dates.). But the catch with that is when Berlin 2018 was run, the new Boston 2020 standards hadn't been released yet so they were all pretty much running to BQ-5 to the old standard. I think this caused a HUGE drop in the BQ standard that may lead to a normalized cutoff for this year.

Berlin doesn't bring in a significant number of qualifiers to Boston.

Berliner wrote:

WaitingGame wrote:

How much of an impact do we think Berlin had on the Boston cutoff last year? As a refresh, two Berlin Marathons (2017 & 2018) were good for Boston 2019. Rough estimate, you're probably looking at north of 10,000 BQs total between the two years. For this year, only Berlin 2018 is good (Berlin 2019 is past the registration dates.). But the catch with that is when Berlin 2018 was run, the new Boston 2020 standards hadn't been released yet so they were all pretty much running to BQ-5 to the old standard. I think this caused a HUGE drop in the BQ standard that may lead to a normalized cutoff for this year.

Berlin doesn't bring in a significant number of qualifiers to Boston.

Interesting. I figured it could go both ways and could easily be low due to the travel that would then be involved. This would obviously be a bigger deal if it were Chicago and not Berlin.

But the BAA lists Berlin was one of the Top 25 races that runners use to achieve their qualifying times. Based on it's sheer size, I figure a good number are still using it to gain entry to Boston. But it's probably a much smaller yield than American race of it's size/BQ Rate.

Smokeshow wrote:

Just trying to help. If the cutoff is -3:30 I wouldn't want you to think you were getting in.

He'll be notified whether he was in or not before the "cutoff" is announced.

You don't say!

BQ minus 7:53 or so should make it

jecht wrote:

I'm a Clevelander, born and bred and proud of my hometown.

But I looked at that marathon course and am glad I'm in Central Ohio. Cbus seems much flatter and faster and not boring. CLE seems to be an out and back basically.

Cleveland seems to shoot themselves in the foot with the route each year and make it worse. But I agree with C-Bus, that's what I ran and was able to hit my standard by a smidge under -6:00. Always better weather too.