Predictions for Jakob in London 5000 Saturday?

Monaco in his view was squandered. He wouldn't have another high quality 1500 in his legs so soon and the mile is unlikely to be that fast. Go for other distances after hard efforts like that three times in succession at Pre, Lausanne, and Monaco.

Brussels and Paris could well be the opportunities he needs to go sub 3:30. The season's just starting for him. At 19 next season, he's not exactly going to be past his prime.

13:05 for 4th ish.

Gusman is on the team as he won the Australian 5k in the winter, 2 other spots unknown

Kipruto ftw. he is in great shape. I know because I raced him on july 4th.

If the race goes sub 13 fast I see maybe 3 guys going sub 13 and Jakob isn't one of them. Rooting on parsons to go sub 13:10 and also I havent heard of Tiernan in a while so I am curious to see what he can do these days.

Australia take the top 4

McDonald

McSweyn

Gusman

Robinson

all sub 13:10

most definitely stoked for this man’s debut.

I think Jakob is in 12:52 shape on a perfect day but I think he will run 13:03 or so in London.

Black Caviar wrote:

Australia take the top 4

McDonald

McSweyn

Gusman

Robinson

all sub 13:10

Robinson, with the marathon time from London that only US men can dream of, except for their top three.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Black Caviar wrote:

Australia take the top 4

McDonald

McSweyn

Gusman

Robinson

all sub 13:10

Robinson, with the marathon time from London that only US men can dream of, except for their top three.

Top three the last five years.

jacob should be there with 400 to go.

depends on the shape of the others.

third place in 1258

or 20 m back of the winner.

yyy wrote:

FI has run 13:11 and both are strength-based runners. JI is more naturally gravitating towards longer distances so

13:03 in a fast even-paces race , otherwise anything between this and 13:15 depending on how it unfolds.

I love 3:30 guys being called "strength-based" and it is implied they should move up in distance lol

he is in the sense that he is not training like Coe who was doing 8/15:) In a few years all the Is will run the 5000m

as their primary distance. HI is already making the transition

Henrik is not running shorter distances than the 3k due to pain when running fast.

It is true that the Ingebrigtsens find it natural to move to 5k-10k when approaching 30 as 1500m takes its toll.

close to 13 minutes flat,i say.he wont win,but he'll go top 5.

ultra thon bro wrote:

sub 12:50, submitting himself in running history as the GOAT of white runners.

Rupp had sub-12:50 potential.

That's a really strange time for a 5000.

I bet Rhonex will take it out fast if the pacemaker(s) don't. And if he can run 13:20 pace on the roads in a 10k this will be going at least at 12:55 pace.

I think this will all come down to Jakob's strategy.

I don't remember ever seeing him blow up so he judges his place quite well or even too conservatively. For that reason I don't think he will go out at sub 13 pace.

With that said, I believe he will go in a group with the Australians and maybe Butchart at 13:05 pace hoping to run a fast last 800 and dip under 13

PS: strange time as in time of race

And my prediction for Jakob:

1. If the leaders go out at sub 13 pace or hit such splits before 3k, Jakob will finish 3rd or 4th in 12:59

2. If it's a slow race Jakob will be top 2 in whatever time he needs to be there.

The consensus seems to be that you are right and the Italian record is in fact 13:05. I could have sworn that Cova was very close to Said Aouita during one of his 13 flat efforts but memories can change over time and I can find no evidence that Cova actually ran that fast. I feel nostalgic for those days when the WRs were solid and probably out of reach but not implausibly so. You would like to think they were also clean back then though some suggest that this was not the case as it probably is today.

Kev2 wrote:

The consensus seems to be that you are right and the Italian record is in fact 13:05. I could have sworn that Cova was very close to Said Aouita during one of his 13 flat efforts but memories can change over time and I can find no evidence that Cova actually ran that fast. I feel nostalgic for those days when the WRs were solid and probably out of reach but not implausibly so. You would like to think they were also clean back then though some suggest that this was not the case as it probably is today.

A clear example of the Mandela effect.