Predictions for Jakob in London 5000 Saturday?

sub 12:50, submitting himself in running history as the GOAT of white runners.

FI has run 13:11 and both are strength-based runners. JI is more naturally gravitating towards longer distances so

13:03 in a fast even-paces race , otherwise anything between this and 13:15 depending on how it unfolds.

Baby Shark wrote:

Predictions? No complete start lists out yet. I'd say 13:05 to 13:15, depending on conditions and the rest of the field. That's certainly not going out on a limb, but I don't see anything faster in London.

+ Crippa aiming for sub 13'05" (Italian Record). I think he'll go under 13'

ENTRY LIST:

ATKIN, Sam 13:39.38

BUTCHART, Andrew 13:09.33

CONNOR, Ben 13:25.31

CRIPPA, Yemaneberhan 13:09.52

GEBRHIWET, Hagos 12:45.82

GOOLAB, Nick 13:33.48

GUSMAN, Jordan 13:21.35

INGEBRIGTSEN, Jakob 13:17.06

KIMELI, Nicholas Kipkorir 12:57.90

KIPLANGAT, Cornelius

KIPRUTO, Rhonex

KIPTARUS, Dominic Chemut

MCDONALD, Morgan 13:15.83

MCENTEE, Sam 13:17.55

MCSWEYN, Stewart 13:05.23

PARSONS, Sam 13:22.32

ROBINSON, Brett 13:15.91

SCOTT, Marc 13:22.37

TANUI, Paul Kipngetich 12:58.69

TIERNAN, Patrick 13:13.44

TUEMAY, Mogos 13:15.04

YEE, Alexander 13:34.12

True and Jager have both gone 13:02 so seems like Jakob has at least 13:01 in him. Depends on the race, of course.

Baby Shark wrote:

Predictions? No complete start lists out yet. I'd say 13:05 to 13:15, depending on conditions and the rest of the field. That's certainly not going out on a limb, but I don't see anything faster in London.

I think he’ll run 13:03.

13:31 - those Ingebrigtsen's are doing way too much.

JI is 18!

Sub 12:50 - are you kidding?

I think this is going to one of those 13 flatish races. Fast but not super fast. No one is going to want to take it out.

Jakob may run 13:05 but McSweyn will be faster and have a good chance of wining this thing. Likely 13:00 or 13:01.

My thought is that Jakob could eventually run a 12:50 but McSweyn more likely a 12:45. Dude is a gazelle.

Gebrhiwet could go for sub 12:55 and bring others with him.

Ruppolini wrote:

Gebrhiwet could go for sub 12:55 and bring others with him.

If he counts the laps?

Jacob takes 15 sec off his best, still comes fourth.

Inge prdctn wrote:

I think this is going to one of those 13 flatish races. Fast but not super fast. No one is going to want to take it out.

Jakob may run 13:05 but McSweyn will be faster and have a good chance of wining this thing. Likely 13:00 or 13:01.

My thought is that Jakob could eventually run a 12:50 but McSweyn more likely a 12:45. Dude is a gazelle.

Guzman and Robinson the other Aussies to crack 13.05 and smash PB’s here. Rhonex FTW.

Thanks for posting the startlist. Rhonex is not one to dawdle in the back, so I'd say any drop from pace when the rabbits have played out will stay fast. Mcsweyn is on a 2 year tear with one breakthrough after the next. His 3:31 in Monaco was nothing short of impressive.

London 5000 is run in the middle of the day...in the worst heat and wind.

No way is anyone going under 13:15

This is a good call, conditions warm & humid "down south" at the moment but some changes forecast for the weekend.

Distance races in this meet tend not to be too fast, often in the past the race has been set up as a glorified training run for "our Mo" before a major championships, so don't see a super fast pace here. But if it's too slow with a manic last 400 I can see several guys beating Jacob. his best chance is in a 13:15 sort of race with the pace being cranked up gradually over the last 800 or so.

Rhonex Kipruto ran 27:01 at Peachtree, a tough course, in insanely difficult conditions. That suggests to me that he can run under 26:30 on the track in good conditions. In fact, a world record would not surprise me from him. And he will go on his own without pacers. He has already run around 26:44-46 on the roads in good conditions but he has got to be in low 26:20s shape at least right now. However, he may not really be cut out or trained for the 5000m pace as much as the 10000m. But he might just be the perfect guy to follow the pacers and bring this field to the bell at around 11:55 to 12:00, perfect for a number of guys to go sub 13, and GWet to break 12.

Why they would run a 5000 in the middle of the afternoon, I have no idea. That is insane. Put the race at night and they'd get a very fast time and louder fans. The weather forecast currently has a high of 72 and a low of 59, with showers likely. I would point out that a high of 72 is not exactly blistering. Jager ran 8 flat in the steeple with a fall in Paris on a day the mercury hit 91 by noon and was 91 at 6 p.m. On the track it was hotter. I know that Jakob is in shape and wants a fast one but then this meet just does not have a great history for fast distance races. Brussels and Rieti would be better bets.

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/france/paris/historic?month=7&year=2015

Morgan McDonald shocks the world in his professional debut, closing in a 51 in a slow race (13:15) for the W.

Race goes out slow and everyone rushes in the last mile to make is a 13:07 winning time. Most run 13:15

Do you even know what his PR is from a championship race after multiple races in that meet?