Allie O in Pre Steeple

Penn Ultimate wrote:

+ or - 9:30? She’ll be running with the big girls for sure.

"Big girls"? You can't call them that!

Perfect weather and perfect competition. Allie definitely rises to the competition she races with. Call me crazy, but I'm thinking she'll run something like 9:14.

Around 9:25 would be quite good for her and does not seem impossible. 9:14 would be sensational and I am pretty sure she has no chance to break 9:20 this time.

And there is still quite a way to go between 9:19 and 9:14.

Gesa Krause ran 9:32 at 19, 9:23 at a 20, 9:19 (in the 2015 worlds final) at a little older (just 23) than Ostrander is now and it took her another two years to get to 9:15 and 9:11 in 2017.

an honest prediction wrote:

Perfect weather and perfect competition. Allie definitely rises to the competition she races with. Call me crazy, but I'm thinking she'll run something like 9:14.

Her PR is 9:37. You really think she will improve 23 seconds on that? That is similar to a 8:35 NCAA steepler improving to a 8: 12. Going from a top NCAA runner to one who can make the Olympics.

9:32 PR

But I tend to underestimate what AllieO will do.

So best case 9:25.

She is way too small to be a national class steepler. Hopefully that's what the announcer says.

9:22. bank on it

I'm thinking for sure sub 9:30. She ran that 9:37 2 days after racing another steeple and in very hot conditions. She didn't have much competition pushing her at the end of the race either. A time around 9:25 doesn't seem unreasonable for her.

I'm going DNF.

The problem is that someone like Ostrander will not benefit so much from such a fast race. The pacers and the top runners will go out at ~3:00 pace. Like in Oslo there might open a gap fairly early on with a second "group "going around 3:05-07. But this field is so strong that this might not be a real group (like in Oslo with Krause, Mismas, Moller,...) rather say Quigley and Krause going around 3:04 and Lawrence around 3:08. Eventually Ostrander might have to run virtually alone for quite a bit of the race to run her best pace (say 3:08), she will not necessarily have the benefit of being able to follow along a pacer and neither being motivated to beat a few runners following closely because she is the second slowest runner in the field and only one or two are only a few seconds (and not 20+ seconds) faster than Ostrander. She would probably do better in a slower meet with winning times around 9:20 and more runners between 9:20 and 9:35.

Had Allie gone pro? Agent? GRoup?

This brings up another question--can Allie O qualify for our Worlds team in the steeple, and if she does, will she go or choose to prioritize her final NCAA cross season. Having already redshirted one cross year, Allie only has one more shot at NCAA xc. it wouldn't be easy to do both on a normal year, nevermind this year with worlds in october. However this year may represent a unique opporunity for her to go in the steeple, as coburn, frerichs and quigly have such a strangle hold on the top 3 slots in the US womens steeple. Even when coming back from an injury last year, quigley ran nearly 30 seconds faster than Allie's PR at the end of the season. However with Coburn as the reigning world champ, the US will have 4 slots in the womens steeple this year. This would open the door for Allie, with her main competition being Mel Lawrence (also in Pre on Sunday). It will be interesting to see how the 2 stack up against eachother

Do Stephanie Garcia and Leah Oconnor still steeple? If so, they could be threats, too. But I like Allie’s chances. I say sub 9:30 for sure.

Question: can she get the NCAA steeple record in a non-collegiate meet? If she were to break Frerichs NCAA record time at Pre, does it count?

shorty girls wrote:

She is way too small to be a national class steepler.

She should focus on the flat track races and cross country.

I likewise predict sub 9:30 for Allie Ostrander.

Good analysis. Though I think the field is big enough and has a decent spread of talent that she should be able to benefit from the fast pace up front, even if she is not near the front. She is better than Mel Lawrence (who I am glad is still improving). I predict 9:18.

an honest prediction wrote:

Perfect weather and perfect competition. Allie definitely rises to the competition she races with. Call me crazy, but I'm thinking she'll run something like 9:14.

It takes good 1500 speed to be an elite Steepler and to run 9:14, around 4:05 is necessary. Her PR is 4:15, but we don't how soft that time is.

Penn Ultimate wrote:

+ or - 9:30? She’ll be running with the big girls for sure.

The weather will be much better than it was the NCAAs; she won't have to run a semifinal two days prior; and she will have women to run with and/or chase. Add up all three of these factors:

* It was in the 90s in Austin. Better weather is probably going to be worth 6-12 seconds, maybe more.

* The steeplechase is tough on the legs -- arguably even tougher than the 10000m; running a 9:44 semifinal in hot weather two days before the final probably slowed Allie down in the final by 3-5 seconds.

* I'm guessing the lack of competition slowed Allie down by perhaps 3-5 seconds.

Add it all up and we are looking at improvement of 12-22 seconds relative to her 9:37 in Austin.

It seems to me that a sub-9:30 performance is more or less a sure thing. If the weather is good, I think she will break 9:20.

Runnerchx44 wrote:

Do Stephanie Garcia and Leah Oconnor still steeple? If so, they could be threats, too. But I like Allie’s chances. I say sub 9:30 for sure.

Question: can she get the NCAA steeple record in a non-collegiate meet? If she were to break Frerichs NCAA record time at Pre, does it count?

I thought Barringer's 9:12 was the NCAA record. She certainly won't touch that.